|Day Results||10 / 3-5-5|
|2020 Overall 918||918 / 322-308-369|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.08%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.27%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –586-918||63.83%|
|Top Selection ITM / SAR 35-52||67.31%|
|Top Selection Win / SAR 18-52||34.62%|
|Top Selection ITM / Ellis Park 39-55||70.91%|
|Top Selections Win / Ellis Park 16-55||29.09%|
|“Key Horses” @ SAR 7-2-1-1||28.57% Win / 57.14% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Ellis Park 9/3-3-1||33.33% Win / 77.78% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 124-42-27-18||33.87% Win / 70.16% ITM|
Thursday was good. Until it wasn’t.
Out of the first five races, our top pick won three times. Our top pick also ran second twice. In other words? Our top pick was first or second in all.
Then, we went into the tank.
Over the next five races, we had no winners. Our top pick ran one second, one third and one fourth. In other words? Yuck.
So, we are back for a glorious Friday and the start to a wonderful weekend. My grandson Mac turns 1. Uno. On Saturday. Party time for the little man. So there will be lots to celebrate.
Here’s hoping there’s something to celebrate today, too. A look at our picks:
1st: 3/5…The first at the “Pea Patch” is a $10,000 claimer over the grass course, if it stays. Torrential rains all week here in West KY, and the big “Turf Day” is coming on Saturday. So? Don’t know if it will stick to the green today or not, but should not matter. Unexpectedly (3) is the prohibitive ML favorite. Should be the prohibitive PT favorite. And, will likely be little to no odds on the board, at either time. But? This one should handle this field easily and impressively. Ran 2nd here on July 4th when dropped to this level. Should have won that one. Was blocked. Had to wait. Altered direction twice. Will be coming late and will need racing room. But surely the rider / trainer’s son-in-law will steer clear this time? I bet the 3 to win. Box the 3-5. Key the 3 over & under the “all button.”
2nd: 7-6-1…This is a $5,000 claimer, and full of misfits and misfires. But the leader on the paper trail, for me, is Over the Blues (7). This 3YO daughter of Overanalyze is dropping all the way from the $20,000 Optional-Claimer level to the bargain bin for a trainer that hits with .13% of 105 runners this year. Barn wins with .20% in the claiming ranks. Two starts ago, in February, ran a second for the second time in a row — but was moved up to win on a DQ. In 5 career starts, has 2 wins and a second now. My move. I bet the 7 and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
3rd: 9-2/4-3/8-5…Another $5,000 claimer and I will take another class dropper in here with One Step (9). This one drops from the $20,00 ranks to the bin, too. Won two starts ago at Oaklawn Park for $30,000 MCL and was purchased that day by the present connections. They are looking to pedal here with the class drop. Work on June 7 — before the last race — was spot on. But she was no match for the last group. Maybe she can handle these types. One would think. One could hope. My pick. Rathrbluckythngood (2) is a terrible name and awful spelling that was hard to get past the “spell check” button. Not overly great on the racetrack, either. But fits with this group. Has a second in only previous try here. In 9 starts has a win and 2 seconds. Best luck has been over the AW, but could stick here for part of it. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in the exacta. More with the 2-4-3 than the others.
4th: 1A-6-5/7-4/1-2-3…This is a nice one — a MSW event for the 2YOs going 5 furlongs over the main track. Some talent may be laden in here. I’ll go with the Runhappy colt — Mr Sippi (1A). This is one-half of the Joe Sharp entry, and, it appears, the better half. Has been training lights out at the Churchill Downs’ Training Center in Louisville. Cost $210,000 to purchase at the 2019 KEE September Sale. Gets a rider who does exceptionally well for this barn. Ultimate Badger (6) comes from the Dale Romans barn and he launched a tornado here last week with a 2YO filly. This one is a son of Commissioner and may want more ground that the 5 furlongs will allow today. But comes from a Stakes-placed mare and has been training well. Cost $140,000 at the 2019 KEE September Sale, too. Look for rider to ask early. Cool Rags (5) goes for some top connections. Training well. Cost $185,000 at the same sale last September. Would not be a surprise. I bet the 1A-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-4 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-6-5/2-3-4…What a nice allowance race set up here by the Racing Secretary Dan Bork. The 6-furlong sprint over the main track features some horses that have race in Stakes in the past, and may again in the future. I will go to the rail and land on Irish Mischief (1). This 4YO daughter of Into Mischief has not raced since February, when she turned up real dull in a high-powered allowance at Oaklawn Park. Little time off and the barn hits with .21% coming off the bench. Works here are spot on for the return. Rider has won with .28% of the last 18 mounts for this barn. Has a 1-2-1 mark at this distance. Take Charge Angel (6) ran last in the G3 Winning Colors at Churchill Downs in late May. Was over-matched in that one, but this gal once ran second — by less than a length — to the great Covfefe. That came in April of 2019. If she can do that? She can run. Respect here, with a top rider up. Peruvian Appeal (5) is another from the barn of Brad Cox. Not as accomplished as the top pick, but does have a 2-5-0 mark in 12 runs at the distance. Should be coming late. I bet the 1 to win/place and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1 over/under all the numbers again.
6th: 8-6-5/9-3/2-4…Stylish Kitten (8) is a 3YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy, who truly produces good runners on both grass and dirt. This one has been facing much, much, much tougher and was productive over the AW at Turfy Park this winter. Drops to this level for the first time ever and gets a top rider in the irons. This man with the reins tries hard every time, and is a joy to watch in the bike. Works here are solid enough for this group. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3. I will key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed.
7th: 8-4-3/5-7/1-1A-2-6…This is the grass version of the 2YO MSW event today. I’ll go to the outside and saddle up with Gator Romp (8). This Florida-bred has been working lights out at KEE for the debut run and the trainer has a 1-2-0 mark here in the first 6 starts. Attracts a top grass rider in the irons and should help that he will be the last to load, as well. Has to gas. But has the gas. Paymaster (4) could add some pop to the exotics here. This son of California Chrome will likely attract the betting attention of the “Chromies,” but he has been working well enough to warrant some real focus, too. Barn has not hit the board in the first 4 starts here, but that could change today. Curl Reiner (3) worked well last time out and comes from a dam who has already produced a grass winner. Chance here. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the next two in smaller units.
8th: 11-10-9/1/8-7-4-2/5-3…What a nice Allowance-Optional Claimer this event is and should be. I’ll go to the outside for my top 3 picks here, led by Tempers Rising (11). Although she has only 1 win in 9 starts, she does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds and has faced some tough customers along the way. Ran 2nd to Bonny South in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks just two back. Last effort was a shocker. No energy at all. Off again since that one and the works are still puzzling. But if she returns to form? The best, in my book. Enjoyitwhilewecan (10) ran a solid second last time out and both the winner and “show” horse came right back to win the next out. Looks to have quality speed and that could assist today. Diamondcoat (9) won two races back and was claimed out of that one. Moved up in class and moved over to the grass last time out. The alternations did not pan out. Back to the dirt today for a barn that wins with .20% on the 2nd start after a claim; .26% with those making the 2nd career start for the barn operation; and .20% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Gets a top rider up. Has speed to burn. I bet the 11-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two others.
9th: 9-8-1/10-11/6-2-12-7/4-3…A nice 5.5-furlong sprint over the grass to finish the day for the MSW level. I will go with the first timers to headline my tickets here — led by Summer Ride (9). This son of Candy Ride cost $310,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale and he has been working well here in Henderson for the debut. Barn has a 1-0-3 record in the first 10 stars. Better days coming. Rye Humor (8) could add some spice to this odds rack. Has been off since January of 2019. But the dam has 4 winners from 8 starters and 4 turf winners. Rider is red hot of late, with a 4-2-1 mark here in the last week. Works appear to be just OK, but this one did cost $215,000 in 2018. Has the pedigree and the looks, apparently. Quality Warrior (1) is my Upset Special of the Day. This 3Yo son of Quality Raod ran a huge second at Oaklawn Park back on May 2. Got caught up in a speed duel last time out — clocking the first quarter in :21 and change. Half went in :44 and change. Gets a new rider today. A better rider today. Look for this one to flash some speed. If the jockey can harness him a bit? Look out. May be gone at 12-1 ML odds. I bet the 9-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 9-1 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
Saratoga Race Course:
3rd: 3-6-8…Prairie Wings (3) is a 3YO daughter of Tapit and cost $800,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has run 3 straight 2nds to begin the career. Last time out was back in May at Gulfstream Park over the slop. She gets the turf for the first time today and an endurance distance. She may prefer both of those changes. Works are good. Barn is hot. Sursum Corda (6) just missed at this same distance last time out, when she ran at KEE. Will come late and the rider is the best in the game right now. Barn has gone 2-1-0 in last 4 starts here. Tandem. Sengekontacket (8) has run 2 2nds in a row and lost the last one by a nose. Winner of that one came right back to win the next time out. Look for this one to be close at the wire. Upset time? I do. I try to beat the big favorite here, and go across the board on both the 6-8. Take note. I box the top 3 in the exacta.
4th: 2-1/5-4…Lady T N T (2) will be making the 2nd start off a layup and looks — off the last work — to be primed for today. Barn hits with .22% making the 2nd start back, too. In only previous start here, she won. Has a 1-2-0 mark in 7 starts at the distance. That is a concern. But she has talent. What a Fox (1) ran awful last time out when trying Stakes company. Trouble at the start of that one and never got engaged. I toss it. Race before, she ran 3rd in a Stake. Two races before that? She won each. Look for more today. Should rally in the final stages. And, guess what? Look at this rider switch. Wow. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I key those 2 over/under the 5-4 in two shorter units.
9th: 9-8/6-2-1-5/4-3-7…Coronation Cup Stakes…She’s My Type (9) will get the saddle and the reins from one of the hottest combos in all of racing today. Trainer and Rider have teamed up to win .29% of the last 51 mounts together. But in the last two weeks? They have gone 8-3-3 in 19 tries. That is “Wow” numbers. Ran huge the last time out. Should close well today off some speedsters. Try to hold off late? I bet you can’t. Artie’s Princess (8) is a speedster that will convert from the AW at Woodbine over to the grass here. Barn hits with .22% of those trying the sod for the first time. Works over the grass have been modest, but trainer knows how to spot them. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-8 in the exacta. I key the 9-8 over/under the 6-2-1-5-4. I def use the 1 here, too.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene