Days Results 9 / 5-3-5
2023 Overall — 1,231 1231 / 422-430-569
Win % of Top Pick 34.28%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.48%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 773-1,231 62.79%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7 57.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7 14.29%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 52-135 38.52%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 88-128 68.75%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 47-128 36.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 36/14-7-2 38.39% Win / 63.89% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 182/79-35-18 43.41% Win / 72.53% ITM

(Stats to be updated from this week’s picks)

Here’s our looks at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this Sunday “Funday” at Ellis Park:

Sorry we missed the first couple…had some back issues this week and doing the best to move around. We are zeroed in on the 6 Stakes events at the ole’ “Pea Patch” on this big day of racing.

Hope you are ready to have some fun…

5th: 6/7/8-9-1-10/4/2-3…Ellis Park Debutante Stakes…This is a 7-furlong test and stretch-out, for many, in the 2YO filly division. I go with a Key Play of the Day and Youalmosthadme (6). This gal is a daughter of Oxbow and cost a mere $12,000 to purchase at the 2022 KEE September Yearling Sale. Just $12,000. Has already booked over $170,000 after just two runs, to date. Won both of the first two by over 81/2 lengths. Wow stuff. Hard to imagine this speedy and talented one loses here. I bet the 6 to win/place and then key the 6 over/under the 7-8-9-1-10-4 in the exactas. More with the 7-8 than the rest. 

6th: 2-6/8-1/7-3/5/9-4…Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes…This is the 2YO Stakes version for the males, and it, too, will be contested at 7 furlongs. I go with the experience edge here and Call Me Andrew (2). This one broke the MSW at first ask at Churchill Downs on June 1. Came back to run a very game 3rd in the Bashford Manor Stakes the next outing. That was here, and this one was right in the mix until the final strides. Went from 2nd and out 1/2-length out to finishing 3rd by over 6. Before the last few strides, though, this one ran a huge one. Balta (6) is by a hot stallion in Munnings and has speed galore. Likes to hoop it early and often. Will have to stretch that speed considerably here and against tougher. Big challenge ahead. But talented. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-6 in the exactas, and then key the 2-6 over/under the 8-1-7-3-5 in two smaller units. 

7th: 5-8/9-3-2/6/1-4-7…Audubon Oaks Stakes…The cut-back to the one-turn distance may be just the cure for the talented Merlazza (5). This 3YO daughter of Medaglia d’Oro comes in off two tough outings in a row in two Graded Stakes events in a row. The distance just seemed to kick this one right in the head. Now, this one cuts back to the same (about) distance as she ran earlier this year when she looked invincible. Look for a return to order. I’m all in. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 5-8 in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 8-9-3-2-6 in two smaller units. 

8th: 5-7/8-3/4/1-6//2…Ellis Park Derby…I saddle up with my Upset Special of the Day — Blue Light Special (5). This one is listed at 6-1 in the Brisnet.com ML, and could drift higher by PT. I like this lightly-raced 3YO son of City of Light. Won the last out here in easy and professional fashion. Only time off the board, this one had troubles from start to finish. Toss race for me. Has run up against some solid horses so far and looks like he has the stalking speed to be very dangerous. Transect (7) ran well to be 3rd against Verifying in the G3 Indiana Derby last time out. Before that, this one won at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Blinkers come off here. The barn wins with .11% of those that lose the shades. Barn is red hot for this meet, having gone 7-4-0 in the first 24 starts. This one looks dangerous. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 8-3-4-1-6 in two smaller units. 

9th: 6-9-5/8/4/3/2-7//1…R.A. “Cowboy” Jones Stakes…I go with the heavy favorite, Zozos (5), on top here at this 1-mile Stakes condition. Has won 3 in a row and 4 of the last 5. Has speed to control the scenario, or can stalk and run on at the wire. Has a win here. Is perfect 2-for-2 at the distance, too. Can run over slop or fast. In the last 9 outs? Has a record of 6-2-0. Not bad. At all. Look out again here. But does face much tougher. Kupuna (9) is listed at 8-1 in the ML and this one could surprise the odds-makers, a bit. Has speed and needs to preserve some. At this distance, has run 3 times with a win and 2 runner-ups. Did run behind our top pick just three starts ago. Ran huge in that one. The last time these two hooked up? They both carried 118 pounds. Today? Top pick has 126. This guy is at 122. Huge difference here. Take note. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8-4 in two smaller units. 

10th: 5-3/7-2/1-9/4-6-11/8/10…Groupie Doll Stakes…I love Interstatedaydream (5) and I think this one is a standout in a very competitive field of study. Has gone 4-2-2 in the last 9 starts. All of those, but one? Stakes company. Five of those in Graded Stakes. And, has two Graded Stakes wins. Can speed off, if the connections want. But likely to stalk and pounce here. Big shot in this one. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down in the win wager. I will box the 5-3 in the exactas. And, I will key the 5-3 over/under the 7-2-1-9-4-6-11 in two smaller units.