Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Horseshoe Indianapolis on Monday, May 16

Just two winners on the Sunday card at Churchill Downs. No good.

Could have just stuck with the #7 all day and done better. There were 4 of those that came home in front.

We journey up to one of my most favorite spots in the entire world — Shelbyville, IN — today and the racing action at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Here’s our looks for today:

1st: 6/2-5-4/3-1…Gemo Rain (6) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter this afternoon and we will give this 5YO son of Gemologist the title of “Key Play of the Day” to start the day. This one returns as a beaten favorite against tougher last time out here. Lost by just 1/2-length and now drops another rung on the ladder. This one has just one win in 7 starts at this distance, and that is a bit concerning. But this one looks the part and if he can duplicate that last race performance? Lights out, for me. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 2-5-4 than the rest.

2nd: 3-5-4/1/6/2…Breaking News (3) was under serious consideration to be another “Key Play,” until you see that the 6YO son of Mineshaft has only 2 wins in 21 career starts. And, one of those came in the last race at Oaklawn Park on April 2. Barn does win with .23% when it won the last race out, and with .24% so far this meet, after the first 17 starts, too. Hot connections. But this one likes to finish 2nd way too much for use to “key” here. Has 7 seconds and 4 thirds on the resume. Will be around at the wire, to be sure. And, is our top pick. But no cinch win here, either. Mister Kelly (5) won here in a romp last time out. Now, this one has gone 4-4-3 in 18 lifetime starts. Winning rider last time out opts to go to our top pick. Hmmm. Keepin It Classy (4) has not raced since a Stakes event at Turfway Park on New Year’s Day. But the barn wins with .27% coming off the layup and this one appears to be working very well for the return. Has a 5-2-2 mark here in 10 starts. Very interesting. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas.

3rd: 7/6/4/3-2-1/8…The first grass race of the day is for the MCL ranks and made available for the asking price of $25,000. I’ll give the edge to Big Paper (7), a 4YO gelded son of Empire Maker. Dam has thrown a turf winner and this one has been close a few times in the past. In 4 career starts to date, has two 2nds and a 3rd on the resume. Any of those efforts should propel this one to victory here. National Security (6) is a first time starter for the barn of Brad Cox. Son of Liaison comes from a dam who has thrown 3 turf winners from 7 starters. This one is likely to get plucked for the asking price. Training well for the debut and the barn is winning at a world-class .45% rate after the first 11 starts here this meet. Must use, for me. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-6 solidly, sternly, and over again in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 4-3-2-1-8 in two smaller units.

4th: 6-7/3-5/2-4/1…Cabin Abby (6) gets a slight edge in this event for the Indiana-bred fillies. This 4YO gal has raced only once and she was distanced 10 lengths in that affair after pressing the pace in the early steps. Drops from the MSW ranks to the MCL $12,500 here and this trainer wins with .17% when plunging into the claiming ranks for the first time. Gets a red-hot rider and he has teamed up to win at a .20% clip for this barn operation in the last 20 mounts. One to beat. Talktomejustice (7) goes for one of the top barn operators on the grounds and this trainer should shack the early-meet doldrums soon. Nearly won the last time out here at this same level. Barn wins with .28% when returning as a beaten favorite, too. Nice work on April 20. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 3-5 in two smaller units.

5th: 6-5/4/3-7…This is a MSW event for the 3YO fillies and it will be contested at the 5.5-furlong sprint distance over the main track. I will give the edge to the Brad Cox-pupil, Junellia (6). This 3YO gal is a well-bred daughter of Into Mischief and is owned by the super farm of Juddmonte. Will make the career debut here after warming up over the KEE main track for the past few months. Has plenty of works to be fit and they suggest some talent here. If she breaks well? May be long gone. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-5 in the exactas. I will key the 6-4 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

6th: 2-7-3/6/8/5/1…Habuiah (2) is a 3YO daughter of Jimmy Creed, and the sire line should throw some speed this one’s way. Will make the 2nd start off the layoff for a barn that has won 2 of 4 to start the meet and should improve dramatically off the last outing here on April 27. Barn has won with a whopping .56% of the last 9 to return to the gate as a beaten favorite, too. Rider is off to a tremendous start to the meet, winning at a .31% rate. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. 

7th: 3-11/5-12/7-8/6-9/10-4…This is a 1-mile grass test for the Indiana-bred fillies and mares and I give the edge to our first “Upset Special of the Day:” Stormy Wager (3), who is a whopping 20-1 in the ML. This 4YO daughter of Get Stormy threw a bad one last time out, to be sure. But that was against open company at Turfway Park and against much, much, much tougher. Has raced here 5 previous times with 3 seconds and a third. Heady jockey takes the reins here and the barn knows the way to the winner’s circle. Take a swing with me. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-11 over/under the 5-12-7-8-6-9 in two smaller units.

8th: 6-5/2-3-9-8/1/7…Malibu Classic (6) is our second “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is also tabbed with a ML of 12-1. I’ll take half of those odds, and lock them in and down. This 3YO gelded son of Gormley ran 2nd here in the 2022 debut, and in 6 lifetime starts now is 1-1-2 in the record books. Can stalk. Question is, whether or not he can finish. Worth a shot at these odds. Latigo (5) won here on May 4 in a very impressive debut and for a top training group. Will face winners for the first time and that’s a tough adjustment for any and all to make, but the barn wins with .18% upon graduation. Has the breeding to perform well and the rider has won with .20% for this barn since the meet began. Chance. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will box the 6-5-2-3 in another exacta. I will also key the 6-5-2-3 over/under the 9-8 in two smaller units.

9th: 8-9/2-6/7/5/1-10…Copper King (8) gets the nod in this 1-mile turf event for the optional claimers. The 6YO son of Medaglia d’Oro does have two wins in 7 starts over the sod and had a two-game win streak snapped against much tougher at Turfway Park last time out. Could return to that previous form here for a top-notch barn operation. Markitoff (9) could spice up the odds rack here a bit. Has only 3 wins in 30 lifetime tries over the sod, but was running very well at Turfway Park before trying the heavy hitters at KEE last time out. Don’t be surprised if this one surprises. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-9 in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/under the 2-6-7-5 in two smaller units.

We skip the two QH races today. Sorry. Back on them tomorrow.