Days Results 9 / 3-3-2
2023 Overall — 1,100 1100 / 372-380-498
Win % of Top Pick 33.82%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.89%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 687-1,100 62.45%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 16-27 59.26%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 11-27 40.74%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 77-112 68.75%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 40-112 35.71%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 21/12-1-3 57.14% Win / 76.19% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 23/6-6-2 26.09% Win / 60.87% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 166/70-33-18 42.17% Win / 72.89% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Ellis Park’s card on Friday)

Here’s our looks at “The Shoe” on a rare and special Saturday day of festive racing action:

1st: 2-10-6/9/5-1//3/7…Tizzy Justice (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at “The Shoe” on this Saturday afternoon of live racing action — which begins at 5:30 p.m. ET. This 3YO Indiana-bred filly is still looking for win #1, but does have 2 runner-ups and 2 more thirds in the first 8 beginnings. Trainer has just 2 wins in 40 starts this meet, but the rider is winning at a .20% rate after 210 starts. This one likes the sod, apparently, and should excel here. Beyond Justice (10) goes for a trainer who is 0-for-51 on the sod. Ugh. Underneath? Shanghai Express (6) ran a super good race in the first sod race last time out. Barn wins with .33% in the 2nd try over the grass. Look out here. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 10-9-5-1 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 4-1-2/5/10/3-9-6/7-8…Our very own Diamond Solitaire (4) returns here after just 16 days and will face open company again. Ran super against all breeds last time out to be 2nd by a neck. Has run 2 very good ones to begin the year. This crowd is deeper and wider than the last, but I am still  believer. If she gets her trip, she will be plowing ground at the end. Loves this distance, too. In 6 career starts at the 1-mile dirt race? Has a 4-1-1 mark. I’ll take another one. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 4 over/under the 1-2-5-10-3-9-6 in the exactas. 

3rd: (12)-(13)/3-9-11/6-1-8/2/7-10-4…This is a 11/16-mile grass event for the Indiana-breds and I will go with the two “Main Track Only” horses on top, if this one was to be moved off the sod. If it stays on the grass? I go to Basscoat (3). Trainer is just an .08% winner in 166 starts this year, but this one won here two back when getting back on the sod. Ran a good one last time out, too. Looks better on the grass and fits with these types. Sakic (9) is on Upset Alert. Listed at 8-1 in the ML, and I think this one merits consideration. Won last time out when getting back to the sod for just the 2nd time. Moves up in class and will face tougher. But the barn is solid. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 9-11-6-1-8-2 in two smaller units. 

4th: 7-5/1-9/3-6/2/4-8…Lucky Linda (7) gets the nod here. This gal has run three 4ths in a row, but will drop down from the MSW ranks to the MCL $15,000 level here for the Indiana-breds and the trainer wins with .20% when going into the sales group for the first time. Veteran rider could have a good day here. Like this one. Unbridled Devine (5) moves back to the dirt after a bad experience over the sod last time out. Drops in class here and this barn wins with .25% of the last 24 to go from the MSW ranks to the MCL level, too. Big shot. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 1-9-3-6 in two smaller units. 

5th: 8-7/5/2-3-4-10/1/6/9-11…Fireside Kitten (8) has the breeding to be tough in this grass event. Sire is grass specialist and the dam has thrown 3 turf winners from 5 starters. This one has just 3 wins in 26 lifetime starts. Ugh. But? Does have 10 runner-ups and 3 more thirds on the resume. Seemingly, always right there. Polka Polenta (7) has hit the board in 13 of 28 lifetime efforts and comes in off a solid 2nd over a sloppy track here on June 13. Goes from two sprints into a route and the barn wins with .17% of the last 24 to do that. Chance. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 5-2-3-4-10-1 in two smaller units. 

6th: 11-(13)/6-7-12/1-5-8-4/2/3-9-10…This is the 4th grass event of the day and will be contested at the 1 mile distance. I go with Humble Warrior (11). Despite the outside post, this one has enough early speed to move over in the early going and save some ground. Rider is just 3-for-45 this meet and that is the biggest concern. But the barn operator normally does quite well here and this gelding has a 0-2-1 mark in 4 previous runs here. Chance. Boulder Bay (13) is the pick if moved off the grass. I bet the 11 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 11 over/under the 6-7-12-1-5-8-4 in the exactas. More with the 6-7-12 than the rest. 

7th: 5/6-7-9-2-1/4/3/8…The Key Play of the Day is Ferdan (5), who comes in for a top-ranked trainer on these grounds. Won the last time out against open company and now returns to face only Indiana-breds here. Has a 4-1-3 mark in 12 runs over this track and gets a hot rider who has gone 13-2-3 in the last 35. Lots to like here. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 5 over/under the 6-7-9-2-1-4 in the exactas. More with the 6-7-9-2-1 than the rest. 

8th: 7/1-5/2/4//3-6-8…The finale is another Key Play of the Day. This time we line up with Too Bad Justice (7). This 4YO gelding comes in off a 5th in a Stakes event here on June 7. Gets back to allowance company here and before the last race had hit the board in 6 ion a row and 8 of the last 9. Hot rider back up. Barn wins with .29% when going from two sprints in a  row to a route. OK. I’m sold. I bet the 7 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 1-5-2-4 in the exactas. More with the 1-5 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene