(Horseshoe Indianapolis / Coady Photography)

Total Day Results 9 / 4-2-5
2022 Overall — 1211 1211/ 427-450-572
Win % of Top Pick 35.26%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.88%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 784-1211 64.74%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 33-51 64.71%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 18-51 35.29%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 8/2-2-0 25.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 177-271 65.31%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 107-271 39.48%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 45/18-6-4 40.00% Win / 62.22% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  230/ 93-49-19 40.43% Win / 70.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 10/1-1-1 10.00% Win / 30.00% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 4/2-1-0 50.00% Win / 75.00% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 3/0-0-1 00.00% Win / 33.33% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 31/5-3-3 16.13% Win / 35.48% ITM

Stats Now Current

Here’s our looks at “The Shoe” on Tuesday:

1st: 5-4/2-6/1/3…Storm Advisory (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at “The Show” on Tuesday. This 10YO gelding may be a little long in the eye teeth but is still kicking it up on the dirt track. Has a third in 6 tries this year, so far. But drops into the “bargain bin” for the first time. Barn wins with .16% when dropping this much at one time. Gets a rider who is starting to do well over this strip, too. Chance here. Silver Moon Road (4) goes for a top barn operation on these grounds and will drop into the “bin” for the first time, ass well. Is 0-0-0 in 6 starts this year, but this 4YO gelding ran much better at Del Mar when finishing up the 2021 campaign. Back class here. Rider has won with .18% over the last 11 tries for this trainer. I bet the 4 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 5-4 in the exactas. I will key the 5-4 over/under the 2-6-1 in two smaller units.

2nd: 6-4-5/1-7//3-8/2…Curbs and Cones (6) gets the edge in this group. This 3YO comes from the barn of Tom Amoss, who is winning at a .30% rate here this meet after the first 56 starts. This one has been off since running at Churchill Downs in late May. Ran super in that one to be 2nd. Drops another rung here and should be a handful coming off a bullet work on June 24. Like. A. Lot. Selena Sing (4) drops to half the asking price off the last outing and that was a second place effort to a good one. Has a shot if she improves at all off that effort. Barn wins with .27% when dropping this much at once. Take note. Tackles (5) is another from the same barn as our 2nd pick. Gets a rider who is winning at a .33% rate for this barn over the past 9. This will be the 2nd start for this one after being claimed two back. Barn wins with .23% of those kind. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 4-5-1-7 in two smaller units.

3rd: 6/1-8/3-5/2-4-7…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Venice Beach (6). This 3YO gelding comes off a near-miss 2nd here last time out and the apprentice rider gets the call back. She has been on a roll late and has the win numbers up to .15% for the meet after 99 mounts. This gelding has only one win in 14 starts here. Concern. But looks the best in this group. Barn wins with .21% in the claiming ranks. Encouraging. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 1-8-3-5-2 in the exactas. More with the 1-8 than the rest.

4th: 8-7-5/6/3/4/1-2…Just Humming (8) could give the young rider back-to-back wins and trips to the circle. This 5YO mare was 2nd last time out and the young lady jockey returns here, as well. In 6 tries over this sod, this mare has a 1-3-1 mark. Looks like the closing kick could propel this one today. Habuiah (7) may be a very salty competitor in this one. The 3YO daughter of Jimmy Creed comes from a mare who has produced a grass winner and this one is it — having broke the MSW here on June 7. Did that impressively, winning by nearly 4. Rider is winning at a .24% rate this meet. Threat. Re Ante (5) has faced tougher in the past and the barn is starting to heat up a bit after a very chilly start. Meet’s top rider is up for the journey and that could boost this one’s chances. Blinkers added here and that could assist as well. Barn wins with .25% when making the 2nd grass start. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

5th: 1/3-4-7/6-10/8-11/2-5-9…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the uno — Akamai (1). This 5YO son of Strong Mandate may be a strong price, too. Listed at 4-1 in the ML. Nice. Ran better than the 5th place finish last time out after a slower than expected start. Toss that one and this fellow had hit the board in the previous 7 tries. Had two wins and three 2nds in that mix. Gets a rider familiar with the saddle here. Has a 1-2-2 mark in 8 tries here. Like this one. I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under the 3-4-7-6-10 in the exactas. More with the 3-4-7 than the others.

6th: (10)-(11)/8-9/1-5-6/3-2/4-7…If this one comes off the turf, which is not likely, then I go to the “MTOs,” for primary consideration. If it stays on the turf, and it should, then I go immediately to Mornin’ Boss (8). Really like this 2YO filly, who has posted back-to-back 2nds to begin the career. One of those came on the sod, last time out. Gets the meet’s top rider back. Barn wins with .20% when returning as a beaten favorite, too. Like. A lot. Fuel Surcharge (9) is a first timer for the barn of Michael McCarthy, who shipped in to win the Indiana Derby. This one is a first time starter, but working very, very, very well. Could be a popper. I bet the 8-9 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 8-9 over (only) the 1-5-6-3-2 in a smaller unit.

7th: 9-4-6/1/3/2-7/5-8…Pickle Feet (9), who stretched out to the route distance to try the Stakes company last time out, returns to the sprint distance here and has to be considered a huge threat. Has not won two races yet and gives away that condition and experience to the rest, but has speed and has lots of talent. Regular rider is back for the assignment, too. I like. A lot, lot, lot. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 4-6-1-3 in two smaller units, as well.

8th: 7-9-4/2-1/10-11/8-(12)/6…Gold Heritage (7) is my top pick in this grass event. This son of Union Rags comes from a mare who has thrown 3 sod winners, to date. Blinkers get back on and the barn wins with .25% of those kind. Has been facing much tougher and the drop into the claiming ranks here should be a huge boost to the mind set. Early won a Stakes at Colonial last August. River Redemption (9) could be salty in here, too. Has run at this level and over the grass in the last two outings. Was 2nd in each and nearly won both. This may be the day, with the meet’s top rider returning to the irons. National Security (4) is a must-use for me. Comes from the Brad Cox barn and won the debut here in mid-May. Been off since then, but that initial win was over this sod, too. Talented rider shows up for the mount. Interesting. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

9th: 8-9-4/2/7/1…The final Thoroughbred event on the day will be the final grass race of the day, too. I line up with Zipsy Rose Lee (8), who ran 2nd to a very good one last time out. Winner last time came right back to impress and win on Indiana Derby Day. If this gal can improve at all, she will be a tough out here. Golden Heist (9) goes for the  barn of Tim Glyshaw, and this one ran in the same race as the top pick. May improve immensely with the 2nd grass effort — and the barn wins with .38% of those. Wow number. Runoffaith (4) attracts the rider who normally mounts up with Glyshaw. Interesting. This one will make the first start here against Indiana-breds only after running 3rd against open company in Ohio. Look out here at a price. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units. 

10th: 9-10-5/1-2-6-7/8-(13)-(14)-(12)-(11)…The finale is a Quarter Horse special, and I will go to my “tried and true” handicapping methodology here. I go to trainer Randy Smith. He will suit up Alota Lovin (9) in this spot. Ran a nice 2nd in the 2022 debut in May. Winner that day came right back to win the next outing, too. Looks good here. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 10-5-1-2-6-7 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene