|Day Results||9 / 4-0-7|
|2020 Overall 1375||1375 / 483-459-580|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.13%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.90%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –890-1,375||64.73%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 56-87||64.37%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 27-87||31.03%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 6-3-1-1||50.00% Win / 83.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 186-61-43-27||32.80% Win / 70.43% ITM|
We had a banner day at Keeneland on Thursday. Well, considering how well we have done this meet up till now? Banner day. Red letter day. Wonderful day. Beautiful day.
We had 4 winners out of the 9 races carded, and we landed six exactas on the card that rendered payoffs of $21.70, $12.90, $17.50, $104.20, $10.40, and $22.30 for each $1 played.
So, we will try our very best to continue a wee bit of momentum into the Friday card. Here’s a look at our selections and how we will project to play them:
1st: 3-6/4-8/7/1-2…Credit Enhancement (3) is dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time for trainer Chad Brown, who is having just a modest meet here this fall — winning at a .16% clip. This one was supported at the betting windows the first time, but ran very little when sprinting over the grass at Saratoga. Now, the 2YO filly moves to the dirt for the first time and the barn wins with .29% when racing for just the 2nd time. Grapevine (6) will get to the dirt for the first time, too, but this 2YO daughter of Flatter has been toiling over the AW. Moves to the MCL ranks for the first time, too, and this barn operator wins at a .27% when doing that for the first time. Love the rider choice, who won the Stakes here on Thursday. Has faced some good ones in the first two outings. Should fit here. Mindy’s Way (4) is a first time starter for a red-hot barn operation. This trainer has won with .31% here this meet, and has already put the saddle on 13. Training sessions are going well. Interesting at a solid price. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 6-8-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-5/8-1-4/2/6-7…Hetty G. (3) is a 4YO daughter of Super Saver and drops to a career low level for this one. Probably a claim candidate in this group. Could pluck today and store up for the Turfway Park winter meet. This one has run two good ones in a row and has hit the board in 4 of the last 5. May not be spectacular, but has managed a way to win nearly $65,000 in purses so far. Will run her race. Rider won on this one back in May at Churchill Downs. Sworn Silence (5) goes for the HOF trainer Steve Asmussen, who picked this one up just two starts ago for $5,000. Ran a very nice 3rd at this level last time out. In 10 races at this distance? Has a 3-1-2 mark. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 8-1-4-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1-3/7-6-2-5/8-4…Patty H (1) who try to break the maiden today for a trainer who wins with .32% of those that cut back from a route to a sprint distance and finds his way to the winner’s circle with .30% of those that return as a beaten favorite. Rider has gone 4-3-2 in the last 12 mounts for this barn. Working well. Looks solid in this spot. My first Key Play of the Day. The top pick will have to have her running shoes on, though, while breaking from the rail. She does have speed and can use it, but she will have to save some of this for an expected bout in the stretch with Littlestitious (3). This 2YO daughter of Ghostzapper is very well bred and very well trained by one of the best in the business today. Comes in off two straight 2nds and a 3rd in the debut. This barn operation wins with .26% in sprint categories, and with .24% with the 2YOs overall. This one very easily could win, too. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box these two very sternly in the exacta. I will key the 1-3 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 7-6-2-5.
4th: (14)-(15)-10-9/2-6-4-5/11-12-8/1-3…My top two picks in this 1-mile lawn test will come from the AE List. So, they will have to get some luck just to earn a spot in the starting gate. If they do, though? I bet them. No question. Wentru (14) is another from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a whopping .35% clip here this meet. this one nearly won on debut at KY Downs on Sept. 12. If you don’t know by now? The KY Downs grads are scoring all over the world and doing quite well here, too. A KY Downs’ grad just won the grass Stakes here on Thursday. So, this one factors large. American Tryst (15) also ran well on debut at KY Downs on Sept. 16. Was 6-wide in most spots and just didn’t have the gas to finish up the hill over the stretch run. Barn wins with .18% when routing for the first time and with .18% when running for the 2nd time overall, too. These are my top two. If they do not get in? I go to Tapwood (10), who is coming off a Stakes event at Monmouth Park. Has hit the board in each of the first two outings, but well-beaten in each. May have found the right group here, though. Command Central (9) ran super last time out. If she can duplicate that effort? May find the winner’s circle today. I bet the 14-15 if they get in. If not, I convert to the 10-9. Bet them across the board and then box in the exactas. I use them as the “keys” over/under the 2-6-4-5-11 in two softer versions.
5th: 6-2/1-7…Not the best field in a race carded here this meet. But that doesn’t make it tough to handicap or pick a winner. Wow. Like tossing lettuce. Don’t know which leaf may come out on top. But I will give the edge to Make’n Tracks (6), who hails from the barn of Dallas Stewart. Barn is 0-for-9 this meet. Due. This one drops in class, too. Barn wins very seldom when that happens, but does win with .28% of the 58 runners this year who are making the 3rd start off a layup. Last work good enough. Threat. Tribulation (2) is another from the barn of Stewart. This one is still owned by the breeder — WinStar Farm. Drops to a career low level and just a modest improvement over the inaugural run could make this one a winner here. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 1-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 7-8-9/4-3/2-6/1-5…Cardiac Kitten (7) is making the 2nd start off a layup, and the barn wins with .21% of those. Will shift back to the dirt, and the barn wins with .28% of those making this surface switch. And? Trainer wins with .26% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Rider has won with .23% of the last 30 rides for this barn. Good start and this one may have a great finish. Adhhar (8) won the last time out, but loses that condition. Now, has to move up to face tougher. Trainer wins with .33% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. And, that’s with a 76 horse sample size. This one is good right now, after losing the blinkers in the last. Chance. Stay Happy (9) drops in class, but has not raced since last December. Trainer is super good and knows how to get one ready for morning preps. Don’t dismiss. Big shot. I bet the 7-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 4-3-2-6 in a softer unit.
7th: 11-9-10/7-4-6/2-1-8/3…Competitive Saint (11) is my Key Play of the Day. This 3YO gelding didn’t run a step last time out. Beaten nearly 70 lengths. That is 7-0 lengths. But I can toss that one after a horrid start and never having a chance in a G3 Stakes. Go back before that. Nearly won 2 in a row at Saratoga and won at Gulfstream Park in May. Top rider up. Love this one at a square price. Explorer (9) has to be considered the horse to beat. Comes from the Brad Cox barn. Has never been worse than 2nd in 6 career starts. Will run for the first time on the sod today, though, and the barn wins with .27% of those. Interesting choice of races for the 2nd start off a layup. But don’t dismiss this trainer. Clever and good. Artemus Citylimits (10) ran very well in a Ontario-bred Stakes event at Woodbine last time out. Returns as a beaten favorite today. Will be a tough out, too. I bet the 11-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-9 over/under the 10-7-4-6-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 2-6-1/3-5/4…Honest Mischief (2) has hit the board in the last 6 starts, and has not been worse than 2nd in the last 5 tries. This will be the 3rd start off a layoff, and this top barn operator wins with .29% when he won the last time out. Has ability and this rider has experience on the back of this one, too, running second to the great Volatile. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed, too. I go in on the 2.
9th: 11-12-1/4-5-10/8-2/3-7-9/6…G3 Valley View Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile test over the sod and is a wide open affair, to be sure. I will go to the outside and saddle up with Stunning Sky (11). This race has a ton — an absolute ton — of early speedsters. I can see a scenario where 3 or 4 will try to make the early pace. That could set this one up perfectly for this guy, who comes from a stalking position. Ran behind both Michelin and Harvey’s Lil Goil — who were 2nd and 1st in the G1 QE II here last weekend. A similar run to that effort could land this one on top at the wire. Antoinette (12) has faced the toughest competition and looks to bet the most experienced in this field. I would love to be this one, and I will. But this 3YO daughter of Hard Spun prefers to be on top and in front. Don’t know if she can come from off the pace and win. May find out today. Duopoly (1) comes from the barn of Chad Brown and moves up to the Stakes class for the first time. Another speedster, who is likely to go right to the front from the rail. Can she carry this field the entire way? Another good question. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11 over/under the 12-1-4-5-10-8-2 in two smaller units.
10th: 6-2/8-9-3/1-4-7/5…Destiny’s Darling (6) drops into the claiming ranks and a level that she has never been at before. In two starts here, she has not finished well. But she fits with this group and the word sessions at Indy Grand are spot on. Barn wins with .27% when returning as a beaten favorite, and with .18% of those that come from off this type of a layup. Shesdiamonite (2) could be the Upset Special of the Day. This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML, according to the Brisnet.com intel. Won on debut in Ohio. Impressive there. Gets a solid, intelligent veteran rider. Could be on top again at the wire, although the trainer is 0-for-22 when moving up to face winners for the first time. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 8-9-3-1 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene