|2019 Overall 1,159||1,159/403-408-525|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.77%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.42%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –763 of 1,159||65.83%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 72-141||51.06%|
|Top Selection Win / KEE 36-141||25.53%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 15-2-2-1||13.33%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 189-72-37-22||38.10%|
We had 3 winners on Thursday. Our “Upset Special of the Day” won and returned a whopping $32.40 for each $2 played across the board. Our “Key Play of the Day” won and paid $3.60 for each $2 to win. And, awe had another winner that paid $14.20 for each $2 to win/place/show.
Not bad. Especially for a guy that has been wading water for the past week.
We also had 6 exactas that returned $12.50, $12.70, $22.30, $35.50, $15.50, and $5.20 for each $1 played.
Not bad at all. Especially for a handicapper hanging by a thread.
For the first time in a week, we finally feel like we may have a good day. Again. In the future.
On Friday, the rainstorms are scheduled to roll into Central Kentucky. Don’t know exactly when the moisture will arrive, and how hard it will fall once it does. But it may figure into your handicapping if it gets here sooner, rather than latter.
Here’s our look at the Friday card in Lexington:
Race 1: 8-1/6-9-5/4-3…Roman City (8), a 2YO daughter of City Zip, will move from the grass to the dirt and drop into the claiming ranks for the first time in her young racing career. Both of the moves could prove to be huge for a daughter of one of the world’s most versatile stallions when he was still around. The debut run at Saratoga back in August was promising. Has speed, too. The cutback in distance should help and the barn hits with .27% of those making this surface switch. My pick. Wedontbelieveher (1) was scratched out of a race earlier this week to stick in this spot, and the drop in class should help assist this 2YO daughter of Bayern. Ran very well at Saratoga on debut on July 25, and came back to run well in the next outing, too. Last two have been less than desirable, but the class relief could alleviate that issue today. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 6-9-5-4-3 in two smaller versions.
Race 2: 1-4-5/2-3…Griff (1) has raced twice over this strip in the past and has two seconds to show for his efforts. The 8YO gelding is coming off a neck loss here on Oct. 6 to a good one. Has hit the board in each of the last 5 races, and 6 of the last 7. In 17 starts at this distance, this one has a record of 4-4-3 and the cutback today should help, as well. Warrior’s Lullaby (4) won the last time out when going gate-to-wire. This guy has 2 wins in the last 3 outings. The work here before the last race was a great indicator of what was to be. Has the gas to be tough in this spot. Zaevion (5) came rolling in the last try and simply ran out of ground at the end. Will need to get a quicker jump on the crowd today, but has the closing kick to be dangerous. In 10 tries at this distance, he does have 4 wins and 2 seconds. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 2-3 in a lesser version.
Race 3: 4-1/5-8/3…Peekacho (4) is set at 5-2 odds in the ML, and figures to be there horse to beat here. Ran a solid race here on Oct. 6, but was wide in that one — going into the 6-path at the quarter pole. A little better journey today could make a huge difference. Rider has a win in 3 starts for this barn in the last 60 days. Look for more out of this one today. Mark My Way (1) will draw the rail position and that may be the biggest hindrance for this one. He is likely to drop well off the pace and make one run late. That will require a free spot to negotiate the crowd. Gets a rider who is 0-for-9 this meet. Has been training well. In 10 starts at this distance, to date, has a 3-2-1 record. Chance. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-1 in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
Race 4: 6-3-9/1-8/2-7…Commissario (6) will be making the career debut this afternoon, and will get one of the best dirt riders in these parts to take the saddle job. The works have been a bit spotty, but look at the move this one made on Oct. 6 at KEE. That kind of move may be indicative of this one’s class and potential. The barn is a bit chilly here this meet, but does score with .19% of those making the career debut. The sire of this one hits with .24% of those making the first start. Romario (3) is another first time starter and comes from a barn that hits with .23% of those making the debut in the MCL ranks. Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters and this one has been working very well of late. Look at the move on Oct. 4. Americani Joey (9) is the most experienced of our top 3. Comes in off a nice second here on Oct. 12. Raced for a trainer/jockey and went off at odds of nearly 13-to-1 that day. Shot. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 9-1-8-2-7 in two smaller versions.
Race 5: 4-10-5/9-6-7-12/(13)-3…This grass race will be contested at 11/8-miles and will be held for the 2YO fillies who have never won a race. Unforeseen (4) ran over the grass at KY Downs in the last outing and ran a closing 2nd, when getting Lasix for the first time. If she improves any off that outing, she could be a tough out in this spot at nice 6-1 ML odds. My Upset Special of the Day. Ella Brilla (10) is another 6-1 shot in the ML and comes into this one off a closing 3rd in the career debut. Gets the addition of Lasix today, and the works since the first race have been very solid. Look at the work on Oct. 3. Daughter of Kitten’s Joy could be sitting on a big one. Powder River (5) ran up against a real good one in the debut run on Ellis Park on Aug. 10. Came with a nice late move. Barn hits with .18% of those that make the second start. This one could be part of the finishing equation, too. I bet the 4-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-10 over (only) the 5-9-6-7-12 in a smaller version.
Race 6: 1-6-2/4-7/3-5-8…Front Door (1) is taking another step down in the claiming ranks here, and picks up one of the best dirt riders in the game today. Both of those changes could boost this one to that elusive 3rd career victory. Has been running against much tougher all of his career up until now. Look for more today if he can avoid the 5 path that he strolled in the last outing. Lngtermrelationshp (6) was claimed last time out after running a third against $30,000 types. The new connections win at a .25% rate with those making the barn debut. In 6 lifetime tries at this distance, this one has 4 seconds. I’m going with another runner-up spot today. Truth Seeker (2) is another who was picked out of the claiming ranks last time out. This 3YO gelded son of Into Mischief won that effort and now has 2 wins in a row. Moves up the ranks in terms of career wins, and claiming price, too. But may be able to handle this group. Gets the meet’s leading rider up. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-7 in two smaller versions.
Race 7: 3-11-7/9-12/10-8-1…One Step (3) gets my nod here. This 2YO daughter of Wicked Strong will be making her career debut for the barn of Brad Cox, who hits with .24% of those running in the MSW ranks. Work here on Oct. 13 was spot on and should put this one in a position to be real competitive right off the bat. The connections paid $100,000 for this one at last year’s KEE September Yearling Sale. Looks ready. Sayyida Al Hurra (11) is another making the career debut today. Has been working lights out at Fair Hill, a training facility in Maryland. The barn hits with .12% of those making the first start. Gets a top rider to take the irons. Look out. We the Clouds (7) is a third first-time starter to make our list. This barn hits with .13% of those making the first start. The sire of this one gets .21% winners the first time out. And, this one has been working great right here. Look out here. Love the 6-1 odds and this one could and should be our second Upset Special of the Day. I will bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-12 in two smaller versions.
Race 8: 4-7-(13)/3-1-8/2-9/10…Ginseng (4) tired in the last outing, when pushing the pace from the get-go. that was the first time this gal stretched out to the distance of 11/16-miles. The winner of that one is going to the Breeders’ Cup and the runner-up came right back to win the next time out, too. This daughter of Tiznow won easily and impressively on debut. Drops out of the Stakes event last time out and back into the allowance ranks today. My solid pick. Jump on board here. Secret Stash (7) gets Lasix for the first time after running a game race in the G1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 15. That was this gal’s first race in NA, after starting the career in Ireland. Love, love the work at Churchill Downs on Oct. 19. Wow. The one to beat. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top numbers in the exacta. Include the 13 if she draws in from the AE List. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 3-1-8-2-9 in two smaller versions.
Race 9: 5-11-1/3-7/10-4/9-8…What a Fox (5) is my last Upset Special of the Day. This 3YO daughter of Bernardini is slated at the 8-1 odds in the ML, but I think warrants a huge chance in this spot. Has won 2 in a row since being dropped into the claiming ranks. Was plucked up last time out by a barn operation that hits with .25% when making the first start for the new trainer. This gal has learned to come from off the pace and looks like has really developed of late. Take note of the work at Churchill Downs on Aug. 6 before this latest run. She’s good right now. Lady Kate (11) will be breaking from the far outside and that has been a tough post to overcome in this type of race all meet long. This daughter of Bernardini has enough speed to jump out and save some ground early, if the jock so decides. Has not been out since april, but the barn can get them ready off the bench. Brittas Bay (1) broke the maiden last time out for trainer Wesley Ward. Not must face winners for the first time, and the barn hits with .23% of those trying to do just that. In 8 career starts, this one has the single win, but has 4 seconds and another third. Figures to be close. I bet the 5-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 5-11 over/under the 1-3-7-10 in two smaller versions.
Race 10: 1-5-7/3/9-(13)-8-12-11…The final race of the day is a 11/8-mile test over the sod, and I will give the edge to the railbird — Credit Swap (1). This one is coming off a nice third in the G3 Virginia Derby last time out. The winner of that one has come right back to win again. In 7 career starts, Credit Swap has a record of 2-1-3. Only time he missed the board was in the second career start — when he raced in a Stakes event here last October. A top notch grass rider gets the assignment. Looks tough in this spot. Hierarchy (5) didn’t get the job done last time out when running over the hills and dales of KY Downs. But a lot of horses have not preferred that surface. Two races back, he won at Saratoga against a good group. And that was the last of 4 top three finishes in a row. Barn hits with .18% on the grass, and the rider is an expert on the sod, too. High Promise (7) got beat a nose last time out at Churchill Downs. Winner of that one came right back to win again. In two previous starts over the grass here, he has a second. Gets a top grass rider, who has won 3 of 9 for this barn over the last 60 days. Watch out. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the to 3 numbers over/under the 3-9 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene