Day’s Results 9 / 3-3-7
2022 Overall — 1923 1923 / 649-702-904
Win % of Top Pick 33.75%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.09%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1224-1923 63.65%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE  — 79-124 63.71%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE 44-124 35.48%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 15/7-3-3 46.67% Win / 86.67% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 336-512 65.63%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 178-512 34.77%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 67/27-10-8 40.30% Win / 67.16% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  296/ 120-64-29 40.54% Win / 71.96% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1 18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2 27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 46/10-7-5 21.74% Win / 47.83% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Keeneland’s cards on Wednesday and Thursday)

Here’s our looks for this Friday card, which features 2 Stakes and a bunch of other good action:

1st: 3-6-2/4/5/1-7//8-9…Chasing Rainbows (3) gets in the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the scenic racing oval in Lex-town on this kickoff to the glorious weekend. This 3YO son of Into Mischief is a gray or roan colt. Don’t see many of those by this sire. But this one can run like many of the others. Drops into the mid-range claiming level here for the first time ever. This barn wins with .28% of those kind and will cut back from the route to a sprint distance, as well. Trainer hits with .23% of the last 123 to make the distance cut. Has never run a bad race and will surely be claimed here. Worth the $. Mahaamel (6) gets the huge drop from trainer Todd Pletcher, as well. This one ran real well a year ago, when striking a record of 1-2-3 in 6 starts. But lone start this year came on Oct. 14 — nearly a year layoff. Ran just OK and now drops. Another son of Into Mischief and another who is likely to get haltered here. Rider has teamed up with this barn operation to go 4-1-3 in the last 12. Watch out. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-5 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 1-4/5-10/6-8/7-9/3-2…Willacy (1) drops to half the asking price here after running an OK 5th last time out over the sod in Virginia. Barn wins with .26% of the last 145 to get this much of a price adjustment in the claiming ranks at one time and the rider switch may help the cause. Look out for this one here. Golden Luna (4) was plucked from the claiming ranks las time out and the new barn wins with .19% on the first try after the purchase. May improve with the addition of blinkers here for the first time. Work on Oct. 21 was encouraging. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 5-10-6-8 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 3-2/5-8/4-9/6-7/1…Golden Bandit (3) drops to the very highest ranks of the claimers here after a solid effort in the first try here on Oct. 7. Tired at the end of that one. But this barn wins with .28% on 2nd tries and if she avoids the stumble at the start this time? Look out. One Giant Leap (2) will make the career debut here for a barn that is winning at a .27% rate this meet and .25% after 323 starts this year. Gets a top rider up and the dam of this one has produced 3 winners from 3 starters and has a Stakes winner on the ground. Nice. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over (only) the 5-8-4-9 in a smaller unit. 

4th: 9-3/1/5/2-6-7/4-8…Burninhunkoflove (9) will drop into the claiming ranks here and this barn operator wins with .20% of the last 35 to do that for the first time. Will be making the 2nd start off a layoff and that should help with fitness. Ran up against Gunite in a Stakes just two starts ago. Wow. Class relief by the tons here. Mean Jakey (3) could provide some solid odds value here, as has posted this 3YO son of Violence at 8-1 in its’ ML. Won just two starts ago against much better. Gets a solid rider up. Work on Oct. 22 was spot on. Chance. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-3 in the exactas. I will key the 9-3 over/under the 1-5 in two smaller units.

5th: 1-4/3-(13)-9-2-11/8-5-12/6-10/7…This is a 1-mile turf event and I will go to the rail and saddle up with Buttons (1). This 2YO daughter of Twirling Candy ran a huge one last time out at KY Downs. Just tired up the hill and in a stretch that seemingly never ends. Won the debut before that. Gets a huge rider switch here and the trainer wins with .21% when returning to the gate with a beaten favorite. Blinkers could help today. C C Cruise Control (4) has run in 3 straight Stakes events and has been OK. Has gotten Stakes-placed and that’s not a bad thing at 2YOs. Has some stalking speed and could push the pace here. Chance. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win bet. I will box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 4-3-13-9-2-11-8 in two smaller units. 

6th: 4-2/8/3/5-6/1-7…Sunny River (4). Oh, oh, oh. Has run 5 times already. I think I have touted 5 times. And, this one has 5 runner-ups. Has faced some good ones. Has run some good ones. But this one returns as a beaten favorite in the last 4. Should pop the cork here. I’m hoping. Scarlet Stripe (2) ran a very good 2nd to a filly who came right back to win the next time out, too. This one is a daughter of Gun Runner and that has to boost the chances, right? Gets a top rider back up. Big time shot. I bet the 4 across the board and double down o the win bet. I will box the 4-2 in the exactas. And, I will key the 4-2 over (only) the 8-3-5-6 in a smaller unit. 

7th: 6-11/1-3/2-4-7/5-10/8-9…Myrtlewood Stakes…Key of Life (6) gets the slight nod in this Stakes tilt. The 2YO daughter of Mo Town comes in off back-to-back easy wins and goes for a barn that wins with .28% of those that captured the last race out. Has high-end cruising speed and should either be on or very near the lead. That style has played very well here this meet. Somebody’s Problem (11) has a win over our top pick in her resume. That came in the career debuts for both. And, this daughter of Runhappy put the top number away. But? Our top pick had a very slow start that day and nearly lost all chance with racing just 5 furlongs. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 6-11 in the exactas. I will also key the 6-11 over (only) the 1-3-2-4-7 in a smaller unit. 

8th: 5-9-1/7/2-3-6-8-11/4-12/(14)-10…G3 Valley View Stakes…This Stakes event will be contested at 11/16-miles over a crusty brownish turf course and a rather firm base. I give the edge to Dolce Del (5). This 3YO French-bred filly has never missed the board in 7 lifetime starts and comes in off two very nice races in a row at Saratoga. Won the G3 Lake George Stakes there just two starts ago. Classy type. Sparkle Blue (9) nearly won the Virginia Oaks last time out and has been a different filly since being equipped with blinkers just two starts ago. Take note. California Angel (1) just ran a very competitive 4th to Gina Romantica in the G1 QE II Challenge Cup on Oct. 15. Won the G2 Jessamine Stakes over this sod in 2021. Will be doing her best running late. Can she get through? I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 5 over/under the 9-1-7-2-3-6-8-11 in two smaller units.

9th: 3-5/6-8/1-7/2-4-9…Powder River (3) returns as a beaten favorite here and the barn wins with .18% of those kind. Has really nice, high-end cruising speed and should be in a very comfortable stalking spot from the get-go. Could be tough to handle from there. Love the work on Oct. 21. Sitting on a good one, IMO. Emmeline (5) is our first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 4YO daughter of Violence didn’t fire last time out in the G3 Stakes, but the race before was a win over the AW track. This barn wins with .28% when converting from the AW to the main dirt. Interesting. Also, this one may like the extra distance here, too. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 6-8-1-7 in two smaller units. 

10th: 10-5/(14)-1-12-2/3-7-9-8/4-6-11…The finale is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod and I will go with one of my favorites and veteran runners — Totally Boss (10). This 7YO gelding will be making his 4th start this year and should be sitting on a big one. Love this sod, having gone 1-1-1 here in 3 previous runs. Has run only twice in non-Stakes races in the last 10 outings. Won one of those. Looks ready and poised. Like the work here on Oct. 22. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 10-5 in the exactas. I will key the 10 over/under the 5-14-1-12-2-3 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene