|Day Results||10 / 3-3-5|
|2020 Overall 1347||1347 / 473-454-564|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.12%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.90%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –873-1,347||64.81%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 39-59||66.10%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 17-59||28.81%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 5-2-1-1||40.00% Win / 80.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 185-60-43-27||32.43% Win / 70.27% ITM|
Another day. Another dollar.
We inch along. Pocket here. Pocket there.
Although we had only 3 winners on the 10-race Friday card, we had another 4 races where our top pick ran second. We had another race where our top pick ran third. So, it doesn’t hurt to cash tickets.
And, on Friday, we cashed 7 exacta tickets that returned $17.50, $34.80, $12.90, $36.70, $78.80, $9.40 and $14.20 for each $1 played.
We inch along. Pocket here. Pocket there.
Here’s our picks for Saturday. Take a look. Lot will depend on the track condition and the rains…stay versatile…
1st: 4-5/10-9/7-3-8-6/1…Kimora (4) gets the nod from the Gene Team. This 2YO daughter of Dialed In drops significantly in the class department off a respectable 4th last time out against much better. Has solid mud marks in the pedigree and he barn wins with .32% of those dropping this much in one swoop. Wins with .30% with a beaten favorite in the previous race. Gets a huge rider switch to a reins man, who has won with .16% of the last 19 mounts for this barn. Bullet work on Aug. 31. Big shot here. Overdressed (5) gets a huge class drop, too. Barn wins with .26% when going from the MSW ranks to the MCL level. Top rider — no matter what Ken McPeek cries about — gets the reins. Should improve with the dirt and the mud marks are OK. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I key the 4-5 over/under the 10-9-7-3-8-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-1/5-7-4/6-3…Laddie Boy (2) fits in this spot for the barn of Chris Hartman, who has a win in 3 starts here this meet. Ran OK last time out and won the previous one. Good right now. But 0-for-6 at the distance and has only 1 win in 5 tries here. Vunerable. And, my opinion on this rider is already on social media. Not a fan. Coworker (1) was claimed last time out when he won by over 4 lengths. Was in the Hartman barn then and was ridden by the same rider that my opinion is already on social media. Not a fan. So? What to do? What to do? I will bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
3rd: 2-8-1/3-9-1A/5-4-7…Always Misbehaving (2) goes for a barn that has won with .24% of 157 runners this year. Has a win in four starts here this meet, too. Didn’t like the grass last time out and has been on the sidelines since January. Works coming back are spot on. Barn can get them ready off the bench and the trainer scores with .20% of those dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Like this jockey-trainer team. War Detonator (8) was nearly home at this same level last time out. Barn wins with .15% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Trouble is? Rider is 0-for-19 for this barn over the last 60 days. Not good. Cool. Still, this team figures in this group. Winning Moment (1) will make the first start for a heady trainer, who has won with .21% of 447 starts this year. Does well in the MCL ranks, too, with .21% winners. Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and 1 SW. Work on Sept. 21? Spot on. Draws the rail, which is a tough spot for a debut runner. But looks to have some talent. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 1-3-9-1A-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 7-9/1A-2-1/4-6-8/5…Fevola (7) is another from the barn of NY-based trainer Danny Gargan, who could have a big day on Saturday. This 3YO gelded son of Midnight Lute has been away since Aug. 15. But won that day for trainer Chad Brown. Was claimed out of that one by the new barn operator — who wins with .31% of first time starters for the barn after a claim. This guy is training lights out, too. Gets a top rider up. At this testy 7-furlong distance? This one is 1-for-1. Could pop. Blacktop Legend (9) goes for a barn that won 3 on Friday afternoon. Blinkers come off for this one in the first start for the new barn operation. Trainer wins with .31% losing the shades and with .23% of those making the new barn debut. Works are spot on. Could be ready to pop, too. But the barn’s go-to rider is not in the irons here. Interesting. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-9 in one exacta. I will key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 1-7/8-3-1A-6/4-5…Cowboy Diplomacy (1) returns as a beaten favorite for a barn that wins with a whopping .30% of those kind. Had a huge run at Ellis Park in July. Issues in the last one. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up today, and he has won with .23% of the last 60 rides for the trainer. Love the Oct. 3 workout. Looks primed. Nashville (7) ran off to an 11-length victory in the debut at Saratoga on Sept. 2. But…That one was over a sloppy track that featured a field of just 3 other opponents. Now, moves up to face winners for the first time. May catch another wet track today, but the competition will be much tougher. Could be a favorite to avoid. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
6th: 11-10-12/(13)-7-9-8-(14)/5-3-4/2-1-6…If the hurricane rains descend on Lexington, my guess is that this turf event is moved to the main track. That turns a tough handicapping assignment even tougher. This bad boy is wide, wide open. If it stays on the grass, I go with Empress Eleanor (11). This 3YO Empire Maker filly has decent mud marks in the pedigree, but ran a huge, closing 4th in the debut at KY Downs — a very tough place to win on debut. Could improve off that one and be awfully tough in the late going here. Red Light Racer (10) is a first timer. Be interesting to see if this one stays around for either a run over the grass or dirt. Pedigree helps the mud mark. Comes from the Chad Brown barn. Could be tough on debut with a top rider up. Madison Parc (12) is a NY-bred who will be facing open company in this spot. But the last race was very good and the winner of that one came right back to win again. Mud marks in the pedigree and I love the sire of this one. Chance. I bet the 11-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 11-10 over/under the 12-13-7-9-8-14-5-3 in two smaller units.
7th: 9-6-11/12-2-10-5/8-(13)-(15)/3-1-7…This is another MSW event, but this one will be contested at 6.5-furlongs over the main track. I will go with One Fast Orb (9) in this spot. The 2YO Orb filly didn’t hit a like last time out when getting the blinkers for the first time at KY Downs. Now, she will move to the dirt for the first time and returns to a sprint distance, too. Dam of this one has 2 winners from 3 starters and the changes may help get this one home first. Spitz (6) missed by a nose last time out over the dry dirt. Got the blinkers in that one and came in spurts at the wire. Love the recent work here own Oct. 1. Set at 8-1 odds in the Brisnet.com ML odds. If so? I’ll make this one my first Upset Special of the Day. The 2YO daughter of Mark Valeski — Making Progress (11) — could make a splash here in this one, too. Got off to a horrid start in the debut race. Came with a late rush to get a better-than-looks 5th in that one. Work here on Oct. 6 was special. Look for more out of this one today. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 9-6 over/under the 11-12-2-10-5-8 in two smaller units.
8th: 6-8/2-3-5-9/1-10/4-7…G2 Fayette Stakes…Mr Freeze (6) is my first Key Play of the Day. This 5YO chestnut son of To Honor and Serve has run in 8 straight Graded Stakes events. In those 8, he has hit the board 6 times. The last two outings were not the best, but he gets a racetrack today where he has a win and a second in two previous tries. In the one effort over an “off track,” this one has a second. Work on Oct. 3 was spot on. HOF rider takes the mount. Lots to like here. I like a return to form and a big run here. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-8 in one exacta. Sternly. I then key the 6-8 over/under the 2-3-5-9-1-10 in two smaller units.
9th: 4-7-1/2-3/9-8-6/5…G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup…What a beautiful field that has been assembled by the crack team of Racing Secretary Ben Huffman. Lots to like and bet here. I hope to heck it stays on the sod — even if it is soft or yielding — and I will go with Magic Attitude (4) on top. This one ran huge in the U.S. debut on Sept. 19. Easiest kind of winner. May do that again if soft ground. She has the most experience of any on this kind of sod. Barn wins with .22% that ship in for a race. Lots to like. Micheline (7) won the last time out at KY Downs and that place has kicked out winners like a factory. In 10 tries over the grass, this one has a 4-1-1 mark. Barn wins with .20% in the third race off a layup, too. Big chance with a late run. Needs some luck and room. Harvey’s Lil Goil (1) could get overlooked in this field. Drew the rail, which is no bargain. But this 3YO daughter of American Pharoah has speed and could go right to the front. Antoinette (3) is my Upset Special of the Day II. This 3YO daughter of Hard Spun likes to be forwardly placed, but is super consistent. Working well for this one and gets a clever rider up. Maybe. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the 4-7-3 in one exacta and the 4-1-3 in another. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 7-1-2-9-8-6-5 in two smaller units.
10th: 3-1A-2/1-7-9-6-5/4…Copeley (3) gets the nod in the finale. This 2YO son of Air Force Blue has already been gelded and that may sharpen this one up. Look at the last work. On Oct. 2. If he can run to that effort? Look out. Should be on the muscle. Derby Model (1A) is another from the same barn operation as the top pick. This will be the first start for this one and the morning drills are good enough to help. Rider is special, and the dam of this one has a winner from the first two starters. Adds up. Love My Jimmy (2) could spice up the odds rack, a bit. Ran a good one at Belterra on debut. Will face much, much tougher here, but the barn wins with .24% of 103 starters this year and with .27% of the 52 runners making the 2nd career start. Works are good. Could upset. I bet the 3-1A across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 3-1A over/under the 2-7-9-6-5-4 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene