Day Results 10 / 3-2-5
2020 Overall 1385 1385 / 486-461-585
Win % of Top Pick 35.09%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.87%
2020 Top Pick in the Money –894-1,385 64.55%
Top Selection ITM / KEE 60-97 61.86%
Top Selections Win / KEE 30-97 30.93%
“Key Horses” @ KEE 8-5-1-1 62.50% Win / 87.50% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2020 188-63-43-27 33.51% Win / 70.75% ITM

A very modest day at the ole’ ball yard. Off to a very nice start. Famine for five races in a row. And, then?

Bam.

We hit them.

Right in the mouth. In the G3 Valley View. After running a game 2nd with our first Key Play of the Day with Patty H, we scored a nice win with our next Key Play in the Stakes with Stunning Sky.

Nice win.

Nice exacta.

Day saver.

So, we will try to duplicate those efforts and highlights on Saturday, in a card full of promise and potential scores.

Here’s our inside looks:

1st: 2-1-4/5…Control Stake (2) is part of a two-horse monster in this one. The 8YO gelding ran well last time out to be 2nd against tougher. Now, falls to the lowest price tag ever. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up. In 5 starts here? One win, but 3 seconds. Looks to have the edge over the “other one.” The “other one” is Bitumen (1), who has one third in 2 previous runs here in the past. At this distance, this one is 4-1-2 in 13 starts. Was claimed for $32,000 two starts back. Runs today for $25,000. Barn wins with .24% of those with the second start after the claim purchase. Barn is having another great meet this year. In 13 starts here this Fall? Has a 4-3-3 record. Win rate is .31%. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I play another 2-1 exacta box, too.

2nd: 4-5/3-1-2/6…Funnybet (4) ran 2nd at this same level last time out and returns for the same price tag today. Barn wins with .30% of those that come back as a beaten favorite. This one qualifies for that category. Out of a Stakes-winning mare, who has produced a winner from the first 2 starters. This one could join those ranks here today. Rose of Paris (5) ran behind our top pick last time out. Could do the same routine today. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top two numbers over/under the 3-1-2-6 in two shorter units.

3rd: 5-6-1/7-2-3…Kiffle (5) was so impressive in her first race under the new barn roof. She won by nearly 8 at GP. But that was back in April. Barn wins with .12% when on vacation this long. In 13 career starts, though, this one has 5 wins and 5 seconds. When at the track? She looks good. Works seem to be getting her ready for a showcase here. All Fact (6) won the last time out, too. Came on Sept. 25 at CD. This trainer wins with .24% of those that made the circle last time out. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 1-7-2-3 in two shorter units.

4th: 3-7-9/1-8/5-2/4…Back Ring Luck (3) woke up last time out when getting the drop in class and the blinkers for the first time. Interesting to note is that this 2YO gelded son of Malibu Moon still does not get the Lasix. Owner is a proponent in using the anti-bleeder, therapeutic medicine, too. Moves back to the dirt today and the barn wins with .22% of those making this surface switch. Like the odds here. Solid. Ultimate Irony (7) could improve today. Barn wins with .13% when going from two straight sprint races into a route. Trainer is one of the better “lesser known” guys in the game today. Star Mission (9) could improve immensely with the drop in class. Barn wins with .18% of those that go from the MSW ranks to the MCL level. Like the rider choice here after the move North. Interesting. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-8 in two shorter units.

5th: 12-9-7/10-6/(14)-4-5/8-1-2…Great Island (12) has a second (here last October) and a win in the last start at CD on Sept. 17. Will come late or from a stalking position. But rest assured. Will come. My firsts Key Play of the Day. In this case: I will bet the 12 to win/place and then key the 12 over/under the 9-7 really good. I will key the 12 over (only) the 10-6-14-4-5-8 in a shorter unit.

6th: 1-8-2/5-4/7/3…Cool Bobby (1) has never won at this tricky 7-furlong distance, but has a second and two thirds. Rider is having a very nice return to KY. Has hit the board in each of the last 3 outs, and the barn wants off the “duck” here. Lonely Private (8) was claimed off a win last time out. New barn operator wins with .17% of those making the first start after a purchase. Winning rider sticks with the gelding, too. Jessup (2) was claimed last time out, as well, and the new trainer wins with a whopping .31% on the first try after the purchase. In two starts? Has a win and a neck loss. Like this one. A lot. I bet the 1-2 in this spot and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 1-2 over/under the 8-5-4-7 in two smaller units.

7th: 7-4-11/2-3-12-8/10-1-9…Bel Fiore (7) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This one is made 12-1 in the ML odds by Brisnet.com. This 2YO daughter of Exaggerator ran 3rd in the debut race. Had all kinds of issues in that affair. A cleaner break could assist those efforts and the work indicates that some speed may have been added since the debut run. Miss Dial (4) will make the career debut for a top notch operation. Rider won with one for this barn on Friday and has won with .17% in the last 12 starts for this trainer. Dam has 5 winners from 7 starters and 1 stakes winner. Rider has gone 3-1-1 in the last 12. Watch out here. Thinking (11) ran up against Royal Approval in the career debut. No match there, but there may not be many 2YO fillies in the world that can match up there, either. This daughter of Nyquist is likely to run much better here at some nice odds, too. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-11 over/under the 4-2-3-12-8 in two smaller units.

8th: 2-4-11/(15)-(14)-7-1/9-10/12-3…Dontblamerocket (2) ran up against G1 company last time out. No match for Digital Age, but had to go super wide in that one, too. New rider gets the mount today. Look for much more today. In 18 grass races for the career? Has a 7-3-2 mark. Nice one. Midnight Tea Time (4) has run two nice 2nds in a row. Has a win over this grass course, and ran about the same against Digital Age, if you look at the race three back. Apreciado (11) is my second Upset Special of the Day. This barn can do little wrong here this meet. Winning at .25% of the time and that is with 32 runners. Look out at 12-1 ML odds. I bet the 2-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top three numbers over/under the 7-1 in two smaller units.

9th: 5-2-4/10-6/7-8/9-1-3…G2 Raven Run Stakes…Venetian Harbor (5) has been facing some of the best in the world at this age bracket. Has 2 wins in 6 starts, but has 4 seconds to boost the resume. Ran up against Gamine in the last out. Going 7 furlongs then? No chance. This one will lead a speed duel from the get to the go. Four Graces (2) has won 4 of 6 and has a win here, too. Ran 2nd in the G2 Eight Belles last time out. The first two are really, really nice. Belong on top. But? But I like two others to go with them. Finite (4) was one of the best in the age group and looked to be a certain KY Oaks contender earlier this year. Throw out the grass race last out. Look for much better at nice odds here. Secret Keeper (10) ships in from California for a barn that rarely goes anywhere. Would be a shocker here. But could be worth a shot, too. I bet the 5-4 across the board. I will key the 5-4 over/under the 2-10 in two solid exactas. I will also key the 5-4 over (only) the 2-10-6-7-8 in a smaller unit.

10th: 2-9/8-10/1-3-4/7…Quarterback Dak (2) drops to a career low price tag here and should be a tough out for a barn that is use to winning a lot more than the current .12% rate. Rider tries all the time. Love his desire to get to the wire, even if it is for a runner-up spot. Tries. All the time. El Supremo (9) gets a class drop for a top barn operator. Trainer has won with .21% of 470 races this year. Should relish this company. I bet the 2-9 across the board and then box the top two in a solid exacta. I will key the 2-9 over/under the 8-10-1-3 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene