|Day Results||10 / 4-6-3|
|2020 Overall 1287||1287 / 457-430-529|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.51%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.67%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –836-1,287||64.96%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 7-10||70.00%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 4-10||40.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 178-58-42-26||32.58% Win / 70.79% ITM|
Not a bad start to the Keeneland Fall Race Meet. Managed to coax home 4 winners — and they all came in a row, beginning with the 2nd race on the card. Added 5 exactas, including the whopping $92.30 payout for the $1 bet in the 2nd race.
Now, we hope to carry the momentum forward to this amazing Saturday card, which will coincide with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. Great day to sit on the porch at the lake; tune in some football on one TV and the races on another; sip a chilly pop or two and watch the world & barges go by.
Here’s a look at our picks for Keeneland on Saturday:
1st: 1-5-6/3/2-4…Beaver Hat (1) draws the rail in the first event of the day and that has been a golden spot at this track over the past few meets. Produces .18% winners. Should help with a return to the dirt surface today, and the barn wins with .19% of those making this surface switch. Barn has been hot of late, too, going 2-0-2 in the last 5 outs. Rider won on this one just two back. Majestic West (5) has a win in two previous starts at this distance and the barn wins with .18% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Chance. Samaronti (6) could be the one to beat. Gets a top rider who does very well in these parts. Had a big run in the last outing and drops in class today. Love the way this one is coming into the race. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 5-3-2-4 in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-8-4/1A-5/1-2…Will’s Secret (6) goes for a barn not known to crank them up this early in the proceedings. But this one ran such a big race on debut that she has to pull us to the front today. Love the work on Sept. 27 after the deep-closing 3rd on debut. Big shot at a nice price here. Guana Cay (8) is a 2YO trained by Wesley Ward. Sure to become he PT favorite, especially considering the last work out here on Sept. 25. Is stretching out for the first time and has the credentials to beat up on this group. Honorifique (4) ran very well on debut at Ellis and returned with a subpar performance at CD on Sept. 4. Was hung wide throughout in that one and gets a huge rider switch today. Don’t dismiss here. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 6-4 over/under the 8-entry-5-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-3-5/4-1-6/7…Pico d’Oro (2) is a talented 2YO son of Curlin, who cost the connections $255,000 to purchase at a Juvenile Sale this year. Love the win in the Ellis Park Juvenile. Had a rough trip in the G3 Iroquois last time out. Winning jockey returns to the saddle here and the blinkers come off, too. Barn wins with .21% when they lose the shades. Will be coming late and the barn is 2-for-2 in the last two weeks. Meister (3) won on debut for a barn that rarely does that. When they do? Take note. This one could be a real good one. Rider is 2-2-1 in the last 8 ups for this barn. Chance. Tate (5) won by 7 in the debut race at Delaware Park. Now, he moves to the big leagues. Godolphin home-bred picks up a top rider and the barn wins with .20% when they move up to face winners for the first time. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 5-4-1-6-7 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-1/2-7-9/8-4/3…Bellamore (5) is the ML favorite and comes from the barn of Chad Brown. Ran 2nd as the favorite in the debut up at Saratoga on Sept. 6. Gets a route of ground today and the barn wins with .32% of those on first chance. Love the work coming in. My pick here. Bahama Mischief (1) is my first UPSET SPECIAL OF THE DAY. This 2YO daughter of Into Mischief ran two huge ones to begin the career, and simply did not take to the hills and dales of KY Downs last time out. Toss that race. I do. Has ability. Has the right barn operator. Has the right jockey. Could be a tough out at a nice price. I’m in. I bet the 1 across the board — take note. I box the 5-1 in one exacta and then key the 5-1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
5th: 11-2-(1A)/4-7/12-8-5-1/(13)-(14)/3-9-10…Unitedandresolute (11) is a great name. Love it. And, I love this barn operation, too. They treat their horses like family and they invite their family to the races often. A lot of the times, they have a reunion in the winner’s circle, too. Returns as a beaten favorite here and the trainer scores with .29% of those kind. In 3 starts to date, has a 2nd and 2 thirds. Close. Love the recent works. Look out with this rider up. Should love the return to the dirt. This one is my first Key Play of the Day. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the 11-2-(1A) in one exacta. I will key the 11 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
6th: 8-5-1/2/4-6/3…G2 Woodford Stakes…We start the Stakes events now and this one is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod. I will go with Leinster (8), who has not run since winning here at a nice price in July. I picked him and the exacta that day, too. Won’t get the price we had that July afternoon, but in 3 starts over this grass course? Has 2 wins and a second. Will come from mid-pack and will come with a flurry. Needs racing room late. Chaos Theory (5) is a deeper closer and will need some room, too. Picks up the newest jockey in town. Can’t wait to see this guy perform in person (if we ever get that chance again). Comes in off two impressive wins in a row. Good right now and has a 5-1-1 record at this distance. Extravagant Kid (1) has an impressive record in these types of races and was nearly a winner in a G2 at Churchill Downs last time out. But? In three trips here, has only a third on the resume. Ouch. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-5 over/under the 1-2-4-6-3 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-1/5-2/6…G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes…This is a 6-furlong test over the main track for the fillies and mares. I go with Lady Island (7). This 6YO Florida-bred comes in off a near-miss 2nd in the G2 Honorable Miss Stakes at Saratoga. Faces some tough ones there. Before that? Hit the board in the previous 9 with 7 wins in the mix. Love the way this one is going right now, and trainer wins with .24% of the last 147 races. Sneaking Out (1) may try to sneak in on this action. Loves the distance and the trainer wins with .25% in Graded Stakes events. Chance. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
8th: 1-4-5/3/2/6…G1 First Lady Stakes…This is a 1-mile turf event for the gals, and I go with a feisty one at that — Beau Recall (1). This 6YO Irish-bred ain’t the biggest girl in town, but she is one of the most talented. Last year, she was 3-3-0 in 6 starts. This year, has a win and a second in two. Comes in off a huge win at Churchill Downs in the last outing. Love the jockey call here. She will come late. She will come running. And, she will fight you till the wire. Newspaperofrecord (4) lost to the top pick at Churchill Downs in the last outing as the odds-on favorite. Gets a new rider for this one and he has 2 wins and a third in the last 3 ups for this trainer. In 9 career starts? Has 5-3-0 record. One to brat. Uni (5) won the Breeders’ Cup Mile a year ago against the boys. Has come back a bit dull for the 6YO campaign. But can’t dismiss this one. Has a win here, too. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.
9th: 7-4/9-8-1/2-3-6/4…G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity…This is/was the 2YO Championship race until there was and now is a Breeders’ Cup 2YO Championship race. I will give the edge to Calibrate (7), who is a son of Distorted Humor and races for the Winchell Thoroughbreds. Love to see this family get another crack at the KY Derby and this guy could be the one to do just that. Won impressively at Saratoga on debut. Stretches out today, but the barn wins with .16% of those doing that. This one has the markings and the makings. Love to see him run off today. Essential Quality (4) comes from the barn of king-maker Brad Cox. Won impressively at Churchill Downs on KY Derby Day. Son of Tapit looks the part. Acts the part. Could be the part. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-4 solidly and sternly. I will key the 7-4 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.
10th: 8-2-6/7/3-4-9/1-5/11-10…G1 Shadwell Mile…One of the best grass races in America today. And, the field matches the reputation. I will go with Analyze It (8), who has raced only one time this year — winning a G3 at Monmouth Park on Sept. 5. Chad Brown trains. It’s a G1 on the grass. Enough written. Hallway (2) should make the field work for this one. Has the speed to go to the front. Has the talent to stay there. Barn wins with .23% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Raging Bull (6) has a win over this track and has a lifetime record of 6-2-3 in 15 starts. Had a rough trip last time out. Toss it. Big shot here at a nice price. I use. I bet the 8-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-6 over/under the 2-7-3-4-9-1 in two smaller units.
11th: 1-8-11/2-6/10-5/4-7-9…My last UPSET SPECIAL OF THE DAY comes in the finale at KEE. Shashashakemeup (1) is a tough name to spell, but this 3YO son of Shackleford may just be an easy name for the track announcer to say today. Comes into this one off two straight Stakes races. Ran well in both of those. Has talent. Gets a top local rider. And, who else can run 4 lengths to C Z Rocket these days? Savvy (8) won here to break the maiden in July. Toss the last one. Gets a big rider switch today. Will come running late. Another price point here. Tough Lvoe (11) came off an extended layup to run very nice at Churchill Downs on Sept. 3. Won against tough company at Oaklawn Park back in February. Chance. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 11-2-6-10-5 in two smaller units.
I will tell you straight up and right to the point that I truly love the job that trainer Tommy Drury does. How he does it. How he goes about it. How much he has given to our industry and sport. How much he deserves to win a Classic race. And, how much he has meant to both owner Bruce Lunsford and his 3YO colt Art Collector (3). Tommy Drury is a class act. A standup man. A true gentleman and, yes, one of the best “young trainers” in the game today. LOL. Inside joke. I would love nothing more that to see him win the Preakness Stakes and then roll right into the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But…Tommy and his horse have their hooves and hands full. Authentic (9) has never been better and he has always been great. Only loss was a 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby when he was coming off an extended layup, and, like it or not there Barclay, he beat Tiz the Law straight up and fair game. He is a man. Thousand Words (5) never got his chance in the KY Derby after flipping in the paddock. But he is back, and he can be a handful. Just ask Mr. Barnes. I can also tell you the horse I do not like in this spot. Not even a little bit. That is the filly Swiss Skydiver (4). In my view. Overmatched. So? I bet Authentic to win/place and then I box these 3 in the exacta. And, I root like hell for Tommy Drury. Make sense?
Pimlico Card (just numbers):
1st: 3-1-4/2-7/5-6…I bet the 1 across the board and box the top 3 in exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 2-7 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-1/8-6-4…I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-1 sternly. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 8-6-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1/3-5/6-4…I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed.
4th: 2-4-6/10-11-5-7/9-8-3…Wide open affair…I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the 2-6 over/under the 4-10-11-5-7-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 5/4-2-1-3/7-6…Key Play of the Day is 5. I bet to win/place. I key over/under the 4-2-1-3.
6th: 7-2/3-1/5-6…I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box them sternly in one exacta. I key the over (only) the rest of the numbers in a smaller unit.
7th: 7/5-8/1-4/2-3…Another “Key Play” for me. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the rest of the numbers. More with the 5-8. Less with 1-4. Lesser with 2-3.
8th: 1-8-10/6-3/7-5…Another wide open Stakes for the 2YOs over the grass. Give the strong lean to the 1. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units.
9th: 6-10-13/12-11-7/9-1/5-4/3-2…What a betting race this is. I go with my UPSET SPECIAL OF THE DAY in 6. I bet 6-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 13-12-11-7-9-1 in two smaller units.
10th: 5/8-7-11/1-10/4-3…Bonny South. All Day. Every Day. I bet the 5 to win/place and then key the 5 over/under all the rest. More with the 8-7-11. Less with 1-10. Lesser with 4-3.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene