Oaklawn Park Statistics on Saturday:

Total Day Results 12 / 3-4-7
2021 Overall 505 505 / 175-175-201
Win % of Top Pick 34.65%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.37%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 315-505 62.38%
2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 44-59 74.58%
2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 27-59 45.76%
“Key Horses” @ KEE 7 3-3-0 42.86% Win / 85.71% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 81 / 36-18-6 44.44% Win / 74.07% ITM

Keeneland Statistics On Saturday:

Total Day Results 11 / 5-7-2
2021 Overall 493 493 / 172-171-194
Win % of Top Pick 34.89%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.31%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 305-493 61.87%
2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 44-59 74.58%
2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 27-59 45.76%
“Key Horses” @ KEE 7 3-3-0 42.86% Win / 85.71% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 76 / 35-17-4 46.05% Win / 73.68% ITM

We had a very busy Saturday. After all, we handicapped 23 races between Keeneland and Oaklawn Park. Managed 8 winners out of those races, with 11 seconds and 9 thirds. Cashed 16 exacta tickets out of the day, too.

Not a bad day, considering the brain drain of handicapping that much going in.

We are back for Sunday’s action in Lexington. Here are our looks:

1st: 5-4/3-6-1-7/2-1A…Trainer Wesley Ward has not dominated the 2YO “Baby Races” as in year’s past, but this one figures to be tough in this spot to open the card on Sunday Brunch Day at the LTS — Paolina (5). This 2YO daughter of Frosted is training lights out for the homebred owners of Stonestreet Farm. Dam has 4 winners from 7 starters and 1 Stakes winner. Rider red hot over the last week with 3-3-1 mark in 12 mounts. Watch out. Or you will miss her. Chi Town Lady (4) is another from the Ward barn. Dam of this one has a winner from 2 starters. Barn is 8-5-1 in 17 starts here. Sharp work over this track. Take your pick? I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exacta. 

2nd: 5/1-4-6/2…Black Kettle (5) is my first “Key Play of the Day.” This 5YO mare has not started since Jan. 21 at Turfway Park. Didn’t fire that night. But if you go back before that event, she had a second and two wins in the three races previous. Maybe she didn’t take to the AW? Working well for an underrated training operation, that finds the winner’s circle .18% of the time in the last 158 starts. Could be dangerous on the lead here. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas.

3rd: 7-3/8-6-9-2/1-4-5…Talk Radio (7) drops to half of the asking price in this MCL. The 3YO daughter of Gemologist has been on the turf each of the first three outings, but now switches to one of the hottest hands in town to take the reins, and the barn wins with .28% of those making the 2nd start on Lasix. When dropping this much, the barn wins with .20%, too. Big shot here. Simply Beguiled (3) has been close at the $30,000 tag and now goes for $20,000. Should aid and assist the effort. Gets the blinkers for the first time and the barn wins with .10% of those kind. Turf to dirt? Wins at a .11% clip. Chance. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-3 in one exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 8-6-9-2-1-4-5 in two smaller units.

4th: 7-3/5-1/4-8-9/6…I’ll go right back to the same set of numbers in this tilt. Tracy Flick (7) won on debut at GP on Feb. 14, but was DQ’d and placed third for interference in the stretch. Went gate-to-wire in that event and now will face the MSW level once again. Should appreciate the experience and these kind. Barn wins with .21% of those that ship in, and with .20% coming off this rest break. Working lights out here and gets a top jockey in the irons. I go here. Fairchild (3) has nearly won each of the first two tries, but has had to settle for 2nd in each. Comes from off the pace, and that style may suit this giving turf course better. Daughter of Speightstown, and you know how much I love this stallion and his progeny. Big shot. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 5-1-4-8-9 in two softer versions.

5th: 4-5/2-1/3…Get the Prize (4) is a speedy sort, who has shown the ability to come from off the pace, too. Like the “Z” pattern that he has demonstrated in the last two. Could be sitting on a big one for a barn that has won with .50% of its starters here this meet. Should have no issues with the track condition or the upgrade in class. Barn wins with .23% of those that won the last race. Noren (5) is a 5YO gelded son of Into Mischief and he has been rock solid over the last 4 starts. Has a record of two wins, a second and a third in that span. Jockey is winning at a .37% rate her and the barn is having a super good year, too. Chance. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-5 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two more, as well.

6th: 3-6/8-7-2/9-10/12-1-11-5…Bourre’ Trick (3) is another that hails from the barn of Wesley Ward. This one has been spotty to date, due to the sporadic spans between races. Drops from the MSW level all the way to the $30,000 price tag here. Barn wins with .25% when making this drop and with .28% when getting the Lasix for the 2nd time, too. Gets a top rider who has won with .44% of the last 9 mounts for this operation. Speight and Malice (6) is another by Speightstown, and this one, too, rates a big chance. Has only raced twice and has not been close at the finish line in either. But has had some racing issues and now drops into the MCL ranks for the first time. Rider has gone 2-0-1 in the last 4 for this barn. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-6 in the exacta. I will key the 3-6 over/under the 8-7-2-9-10-12-1 in two smaller units.

7th: 8-6/2-9/4-7-1/(11)…Starting Over (8) is a 4YO that comes from the barn of Chad Brown, who is 2-2-2 in 10 starts this meet. Ho-hum for him here. But this one will be making the first start for the new barn operation and they score with .20% of those making the debut. Comes off a 3rd in the G2 San Marcos at Santa Anita. If he adjusts to the softer surface here, look out. Could be a factor. If not? Look out, too. Could be a struggle. Glynn County (6) has a lot more experience over the softer ground, and could be a huge factor with his closing kick, too. Has won two of the last 4 and last time out was much, much better than looks on paper. Take a gander at the video. Could have won that one with a better trip. Rider could heat up here soon. I bet the 8-6 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-6 over/under all the other numbers listed.

8th: 2-4/6-1/3…Palace Avenger (2) is yet another from the barn of Ward. This one has been very good in the first 8 races of the career, and sports a 3-2-1 mark. Has not raced since finishing 3rd i the G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes here last fall. But the works leading into this one are good and the barn knows how to get them ready off the bench. Picks up a top rider for the comeback effort. Has the speed to air them here. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-4 in the exacta. I will key the 2-4 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.

9th: 7-4/5/2-8/1-3-6…Black Sand (7) could polish off another very “chalky” day at the Lexington oval. Been a favorite’s paradise so far this meet, and today looks no different. This one gets the Lasix for the first time and will meet the starter for the first time since last August. Was odds-on to win the debut, but hit the gate coming out and was very wide in both turns. Working well for the return and gets a top rider. Connections loved this one the first time. Should back again here. Dancefortheempire (4) could be the one to pick up the pieces. Closed well in the debut at the Fair Grounds in March. Should improve off that effort, and the rider is much, much better than people give credit to. Won a good one on Saturday and can expertly handle the grass runners. Upset? What is that? I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-4 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene