|Day Results||10 / 5-6-4|
|2020 Overall 822||822 / 293-271-330|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.64%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.25%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –525-822||63.87%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 21-37||56.77%|
|Top Selection Win / KEE 12-37||32.43%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 3-1-0-1||33.33% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 109-38-24-16||34.86% Win / 71.56% ITM|
A good day at the ole’ ball yard. A really good day.
Good friend Bruce Lunsford, who is an investor in The Louisville Thoroughbred Society, captured the G2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes with his 3YO colt Art Collector. (We had his colt, too, to finish off the Pick 5 wager. Nice.)
Good guy Tom Drury, one of the best and most under-rated trainers around, got a huge Graded Stakes win with Art Collector, too, to add to his resume. A great accomplishment. For a great guy. Congrats.
And, we cashed tickets. Lots of tickets. We had exactas that returned $23.40, $10.40, $7.50, $92.50, $10.00, $10.10 for each $1 played. We had a sweep in the 5.5-furlong Shakertown Stakes with Leinster, Totally Boss and Bound for Nowhere. Sweet. And, we had 5 winners on the card.
We will try to finish up the first Keeneland Summer Meet today in style. Looks like it may be a little wet today. So, we will handicap accordingly. Here’s our look:
1st: 3-4-10/8-2-12-1/11-(13)-(15)-(16)…Right to Freedom (3) has been working lights out over this main track in the mornings. Daughter of Constitution didn’t bring her stud fee at the 2019 KEE September Sale, but could prove to be a real bargain for these connections. Dam is looking for her first winner, though. Barn hits with .17% on first time starters, and with .14% of those that debut on the sod. Gets a nice grass rider up for this one, too. Faded Rose (4) comes from the barn of 2YO “super trainer” Wesley Ward. He’s winning at a .44% clip this meet with a 4-1-1 record in 9 starts. This one does not show the rapid fire works in the a.m. that we are used to seeing from this outfit. But has put up a number of morning efforts. Should be fit and has the breeding edge. Mania (10) gets a huge rider switch after nearly winning over the slop at Churchill Downs last out on June 28. Trainer wins with .20% on first grass try. May be in the mix. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 10-8-2-12-1-11 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 3-1-5/4-7-2…Josie (3) has been facing much, much tougher and now drops into the claiming ranks for the first time for a barn that wins with .29% of those making this class drop. Love the work up at Indy on July 6. Shows some speed. Has a third in only previous run over an “off track.” If she can find former class level, she could air these. Barn hits with .27% of those making the 2nd start off a layup, too. (Just learned that 3 scratched. Drop down one notch.) Recoded (1) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, too. Barn hits with .17% of those. Has a win over an “off track.” Broke the maiden at Tampa Bay. Hmmm. Urban Insight (5) is likely to be the PT favorite, but the trainer has found winning to be elusive of late. Only .06% in the 18 starts this year. Gets a top rider, but I normally avoid a chilly barn. This one is ice cold. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller versions. Now: Bet the 1 across the board…box the 1-5 in the exacta. Key 1-5 over/under the rest.
3rd: 4/5-2-6/7-3/8…A big day on Saturday for trainer Chad Brown. Two G1s to add to his impressive resume. Back for more action on Keeneland’s final day and will saddle the 3YO colt Digital Software (4). This one gets our Key Play of the Day designation after running a very solid 2nd at Churchill Downs in the career debut on June 12. Had to wait, and wait, and wait that day for an opening. When it finally came, it was too late. Winner came right back to win here this week, flattering this one’s effort. Gets a huge rider change here and a red hot jockey takes the reins for the first time. Has won with a whopping .47% of the last 15 mounts for this barn. Wow. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 5-2-6 than the rest.
4th: 4-2/5-7/1…Free (4) returns to this match as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with an amazing .42% of those — and that is over 31 races. Great number. This one appeared ready to snap the maiden last time out, too. Tired late. Shortens up today and a top rider sticks in the irons. Out of the 3 races to date, has 2 seconds. May be graduation day, as the barn scores with .32% of those making the third start off a layup. Kisses for Heidi (2) nearly won — and may have won — if not for having to check hard and nearly stop in the last effort at Churchill Downs. Moved up to 2nd after the DQ. Moves up in class for this one and will face tougher, but if she can duplicate the last outing, she may be tough with a dash of speed that she has shown before. Can’t dismiss here. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-2 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 3-4-5/7-6-8/1…Empire of War (3) gets my nod here. Has a win at the distance and picks up one of the hottest riders in these here parts. Jockey has won .20% of mounts here this week, and just won the rider’s title at Churchill Downs, too. Will need some racing luck and room late. If he gets it? Watch out. Chaps (4) has run two thirds in a row. Will stretch out to the first route race and the barn hits with .22% of those — and that is with 49 starters. Interesting to see if he will like the extra ground. Pedigree suggests that he will. Bird’s Eye View (5) has only 2 wins in 28 grass starts. Does have 4 seconds and 9 thirds. As such? I use underneath. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 5-6-1/3/2/4…Flatoya (5) comes from the barn of trainer Brian Lynch, who has not won a race in 5 starts this meet. His horses have run much better than it looks on paper, though. Has a second and a third, and they have been in tough. This one comes back to the dirt after a sprint over the sod at Churchill Downs. Gets Lasix for the second time and the barn wins with .15% of those. Top rider takes the reins. Look for a stronger finish today. Heavenly Sis (6) came from the clouds last time out and along the rail. Just missed at the wire at odds of 15-1. Don’t know if she can get the “garden trip” today or not, but does have a second over an off track and is eligible to improve with the 2nd start off a layup. Does have a second over this track previously, too. Market Rumor (1) came with a rush last time out, too, and missed by a length. Closers are NOT doing well here this meet, though. My Favorite Day (3) could be the interesting one in this spot. The 3YO daughter of Pioneerof the Nile cost $700,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Works are just OK for the debut. Barn hits with .12% of those debuting at a distance of a mile or greater. Hmmm. (Just learned that the 3 is scratched. Eliminates that mystery.) I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed. I will box the 5-6-1 in a shorter version.
7th: 1-5-11/10-7-6/3-4-9/8-2…G3 Transylvania Stakes…Field Pass (1) draws the rail and that will somewhat dictate the game plan for this talented son of Lemon Drop Kid. He has the speed to go early. He also has shown that he can rate. Yet, the new rider — up for the first time — will have to ask a bit in the early going to get a good spot. This one has a 3-2-1 mark in 8 starts over the sod. Has a big win in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, too, over all-weather. Versatile. Gritty. Gutty. Talented. Like him. Vintage Print (5) is a 3Yo son of Curlin, and this one cost $1.8 million at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. That is $1.8 Million. Out of a Stakes-winning Ghostzapper mare, too. Has won two in a row and looked good coming from off the pace to do so. Big thing? Gets Field Pass’ jockey to switch over, as well. Big deal here. Big. Mama Breeze (11) did not draw well in the post position either. Gets the far outside. Nearly caught Field Pass in the last outing, and will come late again. Will need racing space and luck. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will box the 1-5 in a strong one, too. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 11-10-7-6-3 in two smaller units. Good race.
8th: 3-9-12/1-2-6/13-4-7…With the scratch of Whitmore, who would have run up against a serious track bias over this strip, this event becomes really wide open. For some handicappers. Not for me. I have been a huge fan of Mr. Money (3) for quite some time. Yes, he has not been the same since running in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita last Fall. True. And, it will shorten up to a distance that is truly not been in his wheelhouse, either. But…he has a class advantage over this group now and the works authorized by trainer W. Bret Calhoun appears to have asked this 4YO son of Goldencents for speed. He was 8-1 in the ML. Obviously, won’t stay there now with the departure of Whitmore, but he is my Key Play of the Day. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the “all button,” in two smaller versions.
9th: 5-10/7-13-3/9-11/2-4-1/6-12…The top two numbers in here appear to have a distinct class advantage over the rest of this group — led by two-times millionaire Zulu Alpha (5). This 7YO gelding has raced the 11/2-mile endurance distance on 9 occasions. Has a 3-2-1 mark and has earned over $1.036 million at this distance, alone. Last three starts could have all been wins, and two of them were. Best on paper. Arklow (10) stepped it back up last time out in the G3 Louisville Handicap at Churchill Downs. But he loves that track, too. In 8 starts at this distance, he has 2 wins and 3 seconds. And, he is a G1 winner at the distance, too. Can’t dismiss. Wild card just may be Ramsey Solution (3), who is 20-1 in the ML. Has never been longer than 11/8-miles. But does like a little give in the ground and will hunt the lead right off the bat. If he gets away and gets brave on the lead? Could he steal a part of it at a price? May be worth finding out. I bet the 5 to win/place and then box the 5-10 solid. I will also box the 5-10-3 in one exacta. I will key the 5-10-3 over/under the 7-13-9-11 in a very small unit, as well.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene