Indiana Grand Racing & Casino:

Total Day Results 10 / 3-2-5
2021 Overall 589 589 / 208-210-238
Win % of Top Pick 35.31%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.13%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 373-589 63.33%
2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 82-114 71.93%
2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 52-114 45.61%
“Key Horses” @ KEE 15 6-3-1 40.00% Win / 66.67% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 95 / 42-21-7 44.21% Win / 73.68% ITM

Keeneland Race Course:

Total Day Results 8 / 0-7-3
2021 Overall 597 597 / 208-217-241
Win % of Top Pick 34.84%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.19%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 378-597 63.32%
2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 87-122 71.31%
2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 52-122 42.62%
“Key Horses” @ KEE 16 6-4-1 37.50% Win / 68.75% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 96 / 42-22-7 43.75% Win / 73.96% ITM

Here’s a look at my plays for today:

1st : 7-1/10-11-6-2/5/3-4-8…Pammy’s Ready (7) is a first-time starter for the barn of Wesley Ward, who is winning at a .30% clip here this meet. Breeding suggests that this one will love the grass and the rider has gone 4-2-4 in the last 16 mounts for this trainer. Training well for the debut. Ruthin (1) is another from the Ward barn. If not for the unfortunate rail position, which is very difficult for the first timers and especially for the “babies,” this one may be the one to beat. Love the rider choice. Can she break and hold her position? Big key. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-1 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed.

2nd: 1-2-5/4/3…I will go to the rail here with the experienced 4YO filly Erv’s Wench (1). This one came with a nice run to be 4th last time out at GP on Feb. 11. Drops in class for this one and the barn is due a win. Could be sitting on a big one at this level. She O’Shi (2) goes for one of the most under-rated and under-appreciated trainers in the country. Guy gets the job done. Year in. Year out. This one drops in class with the ship. Barn wins with .20% with shippers and with .22% of those making the 3rd start off the layup. Could be a pace presence. Extra Effort (5) drops in class for this one, too. Has not been close of late, but could jump up with this class level. Rider? Winning at a crazy .32% this meet. He alone makes this one a serious threat. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top three in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-3 in two smaller units.

3rd: 6-7-1/4/2-3-5…This is another “baby race” for the 2YO fillies. I’ll go with trainer Tom Amoss, who is still trying to avoid the dreaded “duck” for this year’s meet. This daughter of Cairo Prince comes from a mom who has 2 winners from 4 starters. The dam has produced a Stakes winner, too. Sharp work here on April 17. Looks like she is sitting on go-go. Golden Bell (7) is another from the Ward barn. Working well, and the dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 starters. She has produced a Stakes winner, as well. Rider fits with this barn well. Look out here. Guajira (1) is yet another from the barn of Ward. Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and the rider of this one has gone 6-2-4 in the last 24 mounts. Threat. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

4th: 4/5-7-1-2/8-3…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Candy Flower (4). This 4YO daughter of Twirling Candy has not been out since March 4, but will roll into this one off two straight wins. Gets a rider who has won with .21% of the 58 mounts this meet and the barn wins with .27% when they start a horse that won the last time out. Figures here. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas.

5th: 7/1-2/8-5/4-6-3…Zanesville (7) won the last start here on April 10 when galloping over the sloppy surface. Came from near the back that day to win going away at the wire. Returns here for another try, and figures to have some very strong consideration for another win. Over the last 10 starts, this one has hit the board 9 times. Has 6 wins in that grouping. Has only the one win here in 4 starts, but he is really good right now. My 2nd “Key Play of the Day.” Go again. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. 

6th: 6-9-12/(13)-5-(16)/2-8/3-1-7-(14)…Valletta (6) comes from the red-hot barn of Danny Gargan. The trainer is 0-for-5 here this meet, so why “red hot?” Over the last 261 starts, this guy wins at a .27% rate. And, this one has won each of the last three times out. Gets a rider who has won on her back before and is winning at a .32% rate here this meet. Looks to duck the “duck” here, too. Curly Ruth (9) has run two very good ones in a row and switches to a high percentage jockey for this attempt. Trainer has not hit the board in 5 tries this meet. Hmmm. Witez (12) goes for a barn operation that finally got off the snide here on Wednesday. Went 0-for-30 to start the meet. Now, may get wins in back-to-back days. Rider has won with only .03% of the last 33 tries for this barn, though. Hmmm. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under the 9-12-13-5-16-2-8 in two smaller units.

7th: 4-2/10-(14)/3-6-9-7/1-8-5/12…Goodnight Olive (4) is the ML favorite here, and should be. This 3YO daughter of Ghostzapper is trained by Chad Brown, who is starting to heat up after a chilly start to the meet. This one was heavily bet in the debut in March and nearly paid off. Ran 2nd that day Barn wins with .27% in the second try. Could pop the cork here. Stand by You (2) nearly won when rallying from near last here on April 2. Rider is having a very nice meet and the barn wins with .23% in the MSW category. If this one gets motivated just a tad earlier? Look out late. I bet the 4-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 10-14-3-6-9-7 in two smaller units.

8th: 5-1/4-8-(9)-6/3-2-7…Summer in Saratoga (5) looks to be the one to beat here. In two previous tries over this track, this 5YO mare has a win and comes into this one off two wins in a row. Will come running late and is reunited with regular rider today. Can he avoid the trouble? If so? Look out. Stunning Sky (1) is my pick. This 4YO filly has not started since January, but she was a near winner that day in a nice Stakes event. In only previous run here? Winner. Love this one to close with a real sense of purpose. I bet the 1 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 5-1 in the exactas. I will key the 5-1 over/under the 4-8-6-3-2 in two smaller units.

9th: 6-2/3/7-8-10/9-5/1…The final race of the day is a MCL event for the $50,000 price tag. I will saddle up with Coal Shaft (6). This 3YO filly is another from the Gargan barn and this one has the look of a winner. Training lights out. Ships in for this one. Gets a top rider. Adds up for me. Lady Frosted  (2) goes for one of the best young trainers in the game today, and this outfit knows how to find a winner’s circle. Drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .18% of those kind. Works are good. Rider does some of his best work for this outfit, too. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene