(My mother, sister and brother-in-law join me at the LTS this week)
|Total Day Results||8 / 2-2-3|
|2021 Overall 463||463 / 159-160-183|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.34%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.14%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 283-463||61.12%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 22-29||75.86%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 14-29||48.28%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 6 2-3-0||33.33% Win / 83.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 75 / 34-17-4||45.33% Win / 73.33% ITM|
Just two winners on the Wednesday card. Did have 6 exactas out of the 8 races on the day. Not much to shout about. Ho-hum kind of performance.
So we will look to pick it up.
Here’s a look at the Thursday card:
1st: 1-2-6/3/1A-4/5…Artie’s Rose (1) is a 3YO filly owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and trained by a man, Mike Maker, who recently filed a lawsuit against the owners for lack of payment on training bills. Bad karma? Or reason to try to win? I’ll go with the second. This one drops in for the $30,000 tag here. Has hit the board in three of the last 4, with a fourth thrown in. Likes to come late, but the last race she flashed some speed. Gets a new rider who has a 2nd with her before. Looks to have a big shot here with the cut-back in distance. It’sfiftyshadetime (2) gets the saddle from trainer Tom Amoss, who is having yet another great year at the oval. Over the last 697 starts, this barn has won at a .22% clip. At the Sprint-Route-Sprint angle? Barn wins with .32%. Look for a big effort here. Stylish Rags (6) drops considerably for the barn of Wesley Ward, who has gone 4-3-1 in the first 9 starts here this meet. This one has not been out since February, when she bombed in a muddy race. Look for better over a faster track and with a top rider back in the irons. One to beat? I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 7-2-3/1-5/1A…Wesley Ward — the “Guru of the Baby Race” — has yet to win one of these here this meet, and he normally wins them all. Had one scratched after flipping in the saddling area on Wednesday. This one should fit this spot perfectly and is training well. Dam has a winner from two starters. World’s top rider is up. What’s not to like? My first “Key Play of the Day.” I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the rest listed in the exactas. I will take another exacta box of the 7-2-3 in one smaller unit.
3rd: 7-4/5-6/3…Lastchanceatglory (7) drops a couple rungs in the claiming ranks and picks up a huge rider switch for this event. Barn wins with .19% when going turf to dirt, and with .24% in the claiming ranks. This 4YO gelding ran a couple of huge ones at Churchill Downs last Fall. This year’s lone effort was dismal, but he got a very wide trip over a surface that may not be his best. Look for more here. Franknjymme (4) will drop in class for this effort, too. Barn wins with .30% when making the 2nd start off a vacation. Has not hit the board in three previous tries here, but this is a much easier spot. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-4 in the exacta. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 5-6-3 in two smaller units.
4th: 8-4/7-3/2-5-1…Radiantrithym (8) has raced over this track 5 times in the past, with 2 wins and 2 thirds. Gets a huge rider switch and has been training very well of late, too. Has the ability to dominate here, but must get the right trip, too. Barn wins with .21% of those that won the last race. Miss Pinkerton (4) picks up a nice rider switch, too, and there are a host of changes for this 6YO mare. Loses the blinkers. Returns as a beaten favorite. Goes from AW to dirt, where she is 0-for-10. All for a trainer who is an .08% winner in just 25 starts over the past two years. Hmmm. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed in two exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the “all button” in two smaller versions, as well.
5th: 8-3/4-5-7-2/6-1…Rye Humor (8) gets my nod here. This 5YO gelding broke the maiden at Charles Town last time out. Not a good betting angle when you go from Charles Town to KEE. Not a good one to bet a MSW winner from West Virginia against other winners for the first time, too. But? This one did run a huge one at both KEE and CD last Fall. Works are encouraging. Gets a rider who has been hot all winter long. I’ll take the odds here. The Predicament (3) gets Lasix for the first time after running poorly in the John Battaglia Stakes at TP last time out. This 3YO will face older types here for the first time. Interesting. But this one has a 1-5-2 record in 9 starts, and wins at a .20% clip when dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time, too. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 4-5-7-2-6-1 in two smaller units.
6th: 12-7-5/2-10-8-(14)/4-9-(16)-3/6-(13)…This is a 11/8-mile event over the grass course, and I will go to the far outside and saddle up with Southern District (12) — who comes from the Chad Brown barn. So far, Brown is looking for his first win in Lexington. And, he normally dominates here, too. But this one ran a huge one on debut at GP on Feb. 28. Lost by less than 2 after falling off the pace early. Barn wins with .26% on the 2nd career start and now gets the top rider in the free world. Big chance here. Alexander Valley (7) goes for HOF trainer, and returns to the oval after a tough-beat 2nd last time out. That was the 2nd runner-up finish for this 3YO son of Medaglia d’Oro in a row. Gets a HOF rider for the first time here. The one to beat, for sure. Avenue (5) goes for a trainer who won one over the grass on Wednesday. This one has run a very solid 2nd and a very troubled 5th in the first two starts. Should be better today with a return to his previous rider. Needs a better break from the gate today to showcase his speed. I bet the 12-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-10 in one exacta. I will key the 12-7 over/under the 5-2-10-8-14-4 in two smaller units, too.
7th: 2-6/3-4-5/1…Kinetic Sky (2) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, and that automatically makes this one a contender. After the first 9 starts here this meet, this trainer had a 2-1-2 record. Look for more out of this one here. Has two wins and two thirds on the record, and gets a huge rider switch for this spot. Work on April 3 was spot on. Sitting on a big one. I’m in. Good Culture (6) is coming off a nice MSW win on Feb. 20 at Aqueduct for a trainer that knows how to find the winner’s circle. Over the last 287 starters, this barn has .21% winners. Picks up Lasix for the first time here and the barn wins with .19% of those. The rider is winning at a near .40% rate this meet. Over the last 18 mounts, he has a 7-4-2 mark and that doesn’t count Wednesday — when I know he had another winner (or 2). I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 3-4-5-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 11-12-(1A)-1/4-8/2-10-7/9-3…This is a wide, wide, wide open 11/16-mile event over the sod for the colts. I’ll go to the outside and belly up with my first “Longshot Special of the Day” — Baker’s Bay (11). This 5YO son of More Than Ready has not raced since last November, but he won that day. Barn wins with .18% of those off this long, and with .22% of those that return to the gate as a winner last time out. Works here are very good, and the rider is a HOFer. Adds up to a nice patrol here. Vintage Print (12) is another 6-1 shot in the ML from www.brisnet.com. I could add this one to my “Longshot Special of the Day II.” This 4YO son of Curlin ran 8th in the G3 Transylvania Stakes here last July. Has not been out since then. But this one has run very well in the past and is training very well for the 2021 debut. In three tries over the grass? Has two wins. Chance. Invader (1A) must draw in from the AE List to have a shot, but this one ran a big one to Field Pass in the 2020 version of the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Field Pass turned out to be a real good one. This one could, too. Barn wins with .23% off this type of a layup. Can he meet the starter today? I bet the 11-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 11-12 over/under the entry-4-8-2-10-7 in two smaller units.
9th: 4-7-1/8-2/3/5-6…The last event of the day is a 6-furlong, MCL sprint over the main track. I’ll go with Perspective (4), who comes into this one off a tough-beat 2nd at GP last time out for $50,000. Drops a rung or two for this encounter for a trainer who has been on fire all year long. Claimed this one two back. Ran huge in the first effort for the barn. Trainer wins with .40% of those making the 2nd start off the purchase. Looks ready to score. No Angel (7) is a first time starter for trainer Brad Cox, one of the best in the biz. This one comes from a dam who has 2 winners from the first 3 starters and 1 Stakes winner. Barn wins with .26% in the MCL ranks. Rider? Wow. Irad for Brad? Sounds like a slogan. Cornbread Hill (1) is another Ramsey horse for another trainer that the owner owes a ton of money to, if you believe in another current lawsuit. First time starter for a barn that wins with .31% of those that debut in the MCL ranks. Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter. I bet the 4-7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8-2 in two smaller units. I will also key the 4-7 over/under the 1-8-2-3-5-6 in two smaller units, as well.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene