|Day Results||9 / 4-1-6|
|2020 Overall 794||794 / 285-258-317|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.89%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.10%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –511-794||64.36%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 7-9||77.78%|
|Top Selection Win / KEE 4-9||44.44%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 106-37-24-15||34.91% Win / 71.70% ITM|
We finished the opening day at Keeneland’s first ever “Summer Meet” with a bit of a flourish and a bit of cash. Jumped on board the Wesley Ward train and won the final two races on the 9-race card.
That gave us 4 wins on the day and exactas that returned $23.40, $6.60, $21.00, $22.70, $24.90, $92.50 and $25..50 for each $1 played. Seven exactas out of the 9 races.
Bingo. If I can make money with those results.
We are back for more today. Here’s a look at our picks:
1st: 5-9-2/4-6/12-7-10-1/8-3-(15)-11…Fauci (5) is an aptly named horse for these days and times. The 2YO son of Malibu Moon ran a solid one on debut at Belmont Park on June 3. Pushed the pace before tiring late. Hot trainer comes back with a top rider up again, and converts to the sod. Barn hits with .20% of those trying the grass for the first time. Dam of this one has a winner over the turf from 4 starters. Top threat. Gypsy King (9) is another from the barn of Wesley Ward, who is winning at a .25% clip this year from the first 186 runners. Had 2 winners here on opening day. Faced a monster in the debut. That one came back to win a Stakes at CD next out. Look for more here. Unitedandresolute (2) is a first timer for the barn of Tom Amoss. Connections paid $165,000 for this one at the KEE November Sale in 2018. Works solid. Rider hot. Chance. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box the top 3. I will key the 5-9 over (only) the 2-4-6-12-7-10-1 in a smaller unit.
2nd: 3-1-11/10-7-2/4-8-5…Flashing Red (3) has raced 4 times, to date. Two seconds. Two thirds. May get the graduation present today. Barn hits with .18% of those making the second start under the trainer’s tutelage. Malibu Anthem (1) moves up in class a couple of notches after a near-miss second on debut. Barn hits with .20% when moving up and with .13% when making the 2nd route race. Gets a top rider back in the saddle. Malibu Marlee (11) breaks from the extreme outside and that could be a compromising position right from the get. Moves into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn hits with .14% of those. Look for more with a little lighter company today. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the 1-11-10-7-2-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-9-4/6-1/5-3-7/2…Hop Kat (8) drops from the $100,000 level all the way to the $40,000 price tag here and this barn hits with .16% of those going into the claiming ranks for the first time. Has 2 wins in the first 3 starts. Works are spot on, too. Spot. On. Watch out with this drop. Pyron (9) gets a little class relief after almost winning at the $50,000 level last time out. Barn’s go-to rider is back in the irons today. Son of Candy Ride should like the third trip off the layup. Barn hits with .20% of those and .26% of those coming back as a beaten favorite. Chance. The Great Dansky (4) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, and those are always a threat. This one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .30% of those. Makes the second start for this top barn operation, too, and they hit with .23% of them. Looks well-placed here. I have to use. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the to 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 7-1-6/9-4/12-2-10/8-11…Stealth (7) drops a couple of more notches in the claiming ranks for a top barn operation. Should fit with these just nicely and gets a solid rider in the irons, again. Works are solid going in and this one does have a win in one previous try over this track. Take note. Quarterback Dak (1) moves up after breaking the maiden last time out. I hate to bet those making this class jump, but this one certainly fits here. Rail is not a bargain spot, especially with the lack of real speed showing up here. But this one is going for a hot barn and a rider who has won with over .30% of his mounts for this trainer in the last 60 days. Tapage (6) could add a little spice to the odds rack here. The 8-1 ML shot will be dropped into the claiming ranks for the first time and will switch from the turf to the dirt. Both should help this gelded son of Tapit. May surprise. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-4 in two smaller units.
5th: 4-11/5-10-3/7-1-9-6-8/2…Osaka Girl (4) won last time out and now moves up to face winners for the first time. As I previously wrote, I don’t normally bet these types. Tough transition. But this one got the Lasix for the first time in the last race and she looked like a different horse. Ran off to an easy win and the barn does hit with .13% of those moving up to face the winners for the first time. Top rider who was up two starts ago returns to the saddle. I think she could repeat at a nice price. My first Upset Special of the Day. Jen Take Charge (11) ran a really good one last time out at CD. Returned to work very nicely here on July 5. Looks good right now. Will be interesting to see if the connections push the pace or lay a bit off and stalk. I bet the 4-11 across the board and then box those two solidly in the exacta. I will key the 4-11 over/under the 5-10-3-7-1-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 1-8-4/2-10-(1A)-7/3-5-9/11-6-12…Movie Moxy (1) was a hot thing on the tote board in the career debut. Bet down to nearly even money. Lunged at the start and then was wide. Rushed up into contention and then flattened out at the end. Tough, tough trip. If this one can break just a bit better and relax on the front end? Watch out. Could be a real good one here. April in Paris (8) nearly won last time out and now sneaks back a bit in distance. Looks like the cut back could help this one, too. Should be the one to beat and has worked well for this one, too. Skinny Dip (4) ran a huge one two starts back — coming from the clouds. Caught a tough field last time out and was steadied in the lane in that one. Take note. Look for this one to be coming late at a square price. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the “all button” here, too.
7th: 11-9/4-1-3/6-5-7/8-12…This is a 1-mile turf event and Chad Brown has a horse entered. OK. Enough written. Moral Reasoning (11) drops back from three straight Stakes events into the allowance company here. Looks mighty tough. If she gets the clean trip late? Look out. My first Key Play of the Day. Ella Brilla (9) has a shot, but probably for the minor awards. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and box the 11-9 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 11 over (only) all the numbers listed, in another.
8th: 8-4-9/10-3-6-2/1-7/1A…Dos Vinos (8) has raced only one time this year, and she was a convincing winner for trainer W. Bret Calhoun at CD on May 24. Has returned to work brilliantly and looks like she could develop into a top runner with Stakes in her future. In 4 career starts, she has 2 wins, a second and a third. I expect her to add to the resume today. Mom’s Red Lipstick (4) is my second Upset Special of the Day. This trainer is sneaky good. And, this 3YO daughter of Race Day has two wins and a second in three tries — including a Stakes win. Has never run over the fast dirt before, but has worked lights out over at CD in preps for the 2020 debut. Look out at odds of 15-1 here. I’m using. Lead Guitar (9) is a NY-bred, but won easily last time out at CD against open company. Moves to the dirt for the first time today. But the barn wins with .20% of those making this surface switch. Coming late. With a surge. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the 8-4 over/under the 9-10-3-6-2-1 in two smaller versions.
9th: 8-9/1-7-10-(14)-(15)/5-11-12/4-2-3…Today’s finale is a 11/16-mile event over the sod, and I will go to the outside and find my top two selections. My second Key Play of the Day is Fortuity (8). Could also be another Upset Play of the Day. This one is 6-1 in the ML, and could be a nice price. The winner of the last race came right back to win here at KEE yesterday. This one was wide in the last race and this barn wins at a .19% clip on the turf. Love the breeding for the sod and I look for a huge effort here. Exult (9) used to be trained by Chad Brown and now resides in another barn. Has not been out since last July. May need a race. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the “all button” here.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene