|Day Results||9 / 4-0-6|
|2020 Overall 1366||1366 / 479-459-573|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.07%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.87%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –884-1,366||64.71%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 50-78||64.10%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 23-78||29.49%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 6-3-1-1||50.00% Win / 83.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 186-61-43-27||32.80% Win / 70.43% ITM|
We had to skip our picks on Wednesday. Some major developments in our day created a schedule that looked more like a 5:30 p.m. traffic jam. So? Sorry. So very sorry.
We are back on Thursday, though, and we are hoping that we can make up for it with a few winners and some positive cash flow.
Here’s a closer look at our picks:
1st: 5-4-3/2/1…Cabo Dorado (5) is a 3YO daughter of City Zip, who cost $55,000 to purchase as a yearling a couple of years ago. Has run once, to date, finishing a distant 7th at Churchill Downs on Sept. 3. But there are several reasons to dismiss that outcome and think that a better one could be in the works today. First of all, the filly will be dropped to half of the claiming price and the barn wins with .22% of those getting this much class relief in one drop. Secondly, this one ran behind a “Place” horse that came right back to win the next outing. Thirdly, this one was all but stopped at the 7/16th pole marker and lost all chance at a rally to the wire. And, fourth? This one has returned to work very well at the home base. I look for more out of this one, who comes from a dam that was Stakes-placed and that 3 winners from the first 6 starters. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the next two in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-4/1-2-6/3-1A…Social Afleet (5) is a Louisiana-bred, 3YO colt by Northern Afleet and will be stepping out and up to face “open company” again. Last time out at this level and against “open company,” this one ran a solid 3rd. Had to shift in and out of trouble for much of that stretch run. Didn’t get much of a chance to run straight. But the rider sticks around this time and that’s not a bonus here. But the works are solid and this one has the talent to be a real contender against these kind. Majors Vindication (4) has run two poor ones in a row. But if you go back to three races ago, this 4YO won over the turf at Ellis Park and that was the third time in a row to hit the board. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in a box. I will key the 5-4 over/under the 1-2-6-3 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-2/4-1-7-5/6…Of the horses that have started a race going into this one, I will side with Go West (3). This 2YO son of Street Sense cost $300,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Today, he is offered up for $50,000. Need a bigger truck, right? This one ran once and was well-supported at the betting windows. Runner-up in that one came right back to break the MSW next time out. This one ran with the front-runners for awhile, until he spit the bit. Barn wins with .28% of those dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time, and with .20% of those making the 2nd career start. Look for more out of this one. Albizu (2) ran a solid second in the debut effort at CD in May. Tired at the end of that one, but still held the “Place” spot. Gets a new rider for this one and the workout here on Oct. 9 was spot on. Interesting choice. Fire Sword (4) is a first timer for the barn of Wesley Ward. This barn operation is the guru of 2YOs and the trainer has won with .29% of those debuting in the MCL ranks. Works good enough to spark some interest. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 4-1-7-5-6 in two smaller units.
4th: (13)-(16)-4-12/3-11-8-5/6-9-2/1-7-(15)…What a nice race this shapes up to be for the 2YO fillies who will attempt to negotiate the grass course for 11/16 miles. My top two picks come from the AE List and the MTO variety. If either Saranya (13) or Eileen Alexandra (16) get in this race, I will concentrate my efforts with these two. If not? then I will revert to my top pick — Flown (4). This 2YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy has run two straight 2nds to start the career. Each of those have been at a flat mile distance. Came running in each, but just couldn’t finish the deal. The last outing was a Stakes event at KY Downs. Winner of that one has already come back to win again. This one picks up a new rider, who just so happens to have the most wins of any rider here this meet. The one to beat — no matter what. La Bella Rosa (12) could be the first Upset Special of the Day. This one is set at 12-1 in the ML, but the barn wins with .13% on the 2nd grass race and with .17% on the 2nd route race. The last time out? Ran over the sod at KY Downs, and was 4th to a horse who came right back to win the next time out, too. KY Downs grads are doing quite well. Big shot if can stretch her legs for this length of a race. I bet the 13-16 if they get in. Strong on either. Strong on both. If not, I have no qualms of going in and going strong on 4 to win/place/show. I will box the 13-16-4-12 — depending on who gets to the starting gate. I will key the 4 over/under the 3-11-8-5-6-9-2 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-6/3-7/4-2-8/5…This MSW event is for the 3YOs & Up, and will be contested at the sprint distance of 6.5 furlongs. I will go with the first time starter, Mystic Night (1), even though the 3YO gelded son of Into Mischief draws the rail. That is the most difficult of all post positions for a first time starter. Especially at this unusual distance of 6.5 furlongs. Will need to break from the gate running to hold onto a solid and comfortable striking position. But gets the meet’s winningest rider in the saddle, and he has won with .33% of the last 15 mounts for this barn operation. Thrill Ride (6) has faced some good ones in the first two career races. This barn normally races into final condition and this 3YO son of Candy Ride should be poised with the 2nd start off the layup and the 3rd career start. Work on Oct. 1 and 8 — both here — are spot on. Could be ready now. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 3-7-4-2-8 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-10-3/1-12-4/5-8/7-9/2-11…This 5.5-furlong sprint over the turf is another wide open affair. Full field. Full of options. No better chance to hit a long one. Mom’s Red Lipstick (6) is my second Upset Special of the Day. This one is listed at 15-1 odds in the ML by Bristnet.com. I would be happy to take half of those odds. This 3YO daughter of Race Day comes in off a very nice win at Arlington Park going a mile. Has never run this distance over the sod, but has sprinted on both the AW and the fast dirt before. Has done well in those events, except for the race here on the fast dirt on July 9. Faced a real good one in the winner that day. Has returned to win and has trained lights out, too. Top rider on the lawn up. Big shot for me. Violenza (10) has won two in a row for the barn of Ian Wilkes, who is still searching for his first win of this meet after 24 mounts. Has trained well for this one and should be in a nice stalking position headed for home. Chance. Dance Rhythms (3) ran well in a Stakes event two back and nearly won last time out when going farther. In 14 starts at this distance, this 5YO mare has a 5-1-3 mark. Most experienced of all those in this race. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 3-1-12-4-5-8-7-9 in two smaller units.
7th: 9-1-5/2-10/3-6-7/8…At this point in the proceedings, I might just start tossing darts. This has been a very difficult KEE meet to handicap. And, it gets no easier with today or with this race, either. But…I will go with Spa City (9). This 3YO son of Street Sense may be the very best in the group. But…He has not been out since running 7th out of 12 in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Gets a new trainer for this one and the barn wins with .26% of those making the debut for the new conditioner. Has been working very well for the return. Gets a rider who has ridden some good ones for this barn up in NY. Over the last 5 rides? Won with .40%. Has speed. Be interesting to see how they play this one. Barn wins with .21% when away from the gate this long. Don Bourbon (1) has hit the board in each of the last 6 starts. Has a win in that group and in 8 lifetime starts has a 1-3-2 mark. Should be close but now stretches out to a career long distance. Interesting. Letmeno (5) won the Iowa Derby just two starts ago. But could be challenged at this distance. Has talent, but not very consistent in demonstrating it. I bet the 9-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 9-1 over/under the 5-2-10-3-6-7-8 in two smaller units.
8th: 2-6-10/1/5/7-4…G3 Sycamore Stakes…Red Knight (2) ran a huge one to be 2nd to Arklow in the G3 KY Turf Cup at KY Downs last time out on Sept. 12. In 4 career starts at this marathon distance, this 6YO NY-bred has a 1-2-0 record. Rider is clever on the turf and can’t be dismissed at all. Aquaphobia (6) has run in two straight G1s. Won the United Nations two starts back at good odds. Has faced the toughest comp in this field, but in 3 starts at the distance? Only two thirds to show. New rider could help boost the finish. Ziyad (10) will make the U.S. debut today. Gets the Lasix for the first time, too. Barn wins with .22% when getting the anti-bleeder medication and with .16% running for the first time under this barn’s banner. Looks to have the ability to be very tough in this spot. Has experience over a soft piece of ground, too. Postulation (1) is my third Upset Special of the Day. This one has raced here three times before. Has a 2nd and a 3rd. Loves this grace. Ran 2nd by less than a length to Zulu Alpha in the G2 Elkhorn in July and was 3rd in the this race last year. I have to use — especially at 15-1 odds. I bet the 2-10-1 across the board and then box the 2-6-10 in one exacta and then the 2-10-1 in another. I will key the 2-1 over/under the 6-10-5-7-4 in two smaller units.
9th: 7-3/8-6/9-5-2/1-4…Major Attraction (7) is a 4YO Distorted Humor colt that drops to the lowest price tag ever. Gets a top rider back up for the 2nd straight time and moves from the turf to the dirt. Barn wins with .15% making this surface switch. Goes from a route to a sprint, too, and the trainer wins with .21% cutting back in distance. Works are good. Rider is solid. Big shot here. Street Class (3) drops in class for a well-respected barn operator. Work at Churchill Downs on Oct. 8 was spot on and is eligible to improve with the 3rd start off a layup. Barn wins with .27% of those kind. Hmmmm. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 8-6-9-5-2-1 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene