|Total Day Results||9 / 3-2-4|
|2021 Overall 523||523 / 182-181-208|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.80%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.39%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 328-523||62.72%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 49-68||72.06%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 31-68||45.59%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 8 3-3-0||37.50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 83 / 36-19-6||43.37% Win / 73.49% ITM|
Had a nice opening day at Indy Grand on Tuesday. Despite only 3 front-line winners, our top pick hit the board in 8 of the 9 races carded and we scored some nice exactas on the day. We had 7 exactas in those 9 races, but we had payouts of $61.10, $65.00 and $78.40 in three of those for each $1 played.
Did you play?
Did you play more than the obligatory $1?
Hope you did.
We handicapped Wednesday’s card at Indy Grand, as well. Look on the site for those selections. The track is the best kept secret in all of Thoroughbred racing. I love the place. And, they love racing fans, too.
Here’s out looks at Keeneland on Wednesday. Good luck:
1st: 4/1-2-3…The first “Key Play of the Day” will come in the very first race of the day and week at the Keeneland oval. Sunny Isle Beach (4) is 4-5 in the ML and probably will go lower in the odds department before PT, so it will be no surprise or shocker. May be too low a price to single in the win/place/show wagering, but could be a key play in the horizontal wagers. This 3YO daughter of Jimmy Creek comes in off a nice 2nd at Gulfstream Park last time out. In the first 6 outings, this one has 3 wins, a second and a third. Returns here as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .24% of those kind. Has a win in only previous try here. Was claimed that day by the current owners and trainer. This year? The trainer is winning at a huge number and with .27% of the last 258 runners. I go here. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the 1-2-3 in the exactas.
2nd: 6-7-5/4-2/1-3…Matt’s Honey (6) goes for a barn that is 0-for-2 so far this meet. But a win here and he’s hitting at a HOF rate of .33%. Work here on April 10 was spot on. Rider is sketchy, but has won with .18% of the last 28 mounts for this barn operation. Figures in this spot. Bettyb (7) could provide some excitement in here. Won at Turfway Park in December before heading South for the winter. Didn’t fare as well in the sunshine, but this is the right spot and the rider is hot right now. Has a 8-5-2 mark in the last 27 mounts over the past week. That’s hot. Malibu Moira (5) ran a very nice 2nd over the grass in New Orleans last time out. This year, this one has 2 seconds in 3 starts. Could be coming late. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-6-7/2-3/5-1…Fort Peck (4) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” The son of Fort Larned is 8-1 in the ML, and I rate this one with a nice chance to upset the cart here. In 4 previous tries over this track, this one has 3 seconds here. Has faced much, much better here, too. Last time in a straight claiming event? Won at $40,000 at Churchill Downs. I take a shot. Why not? Peekacho (6) drops in class off the last out win at Turfway Park. Loses that condition and will face tougher here, but in 15 tries over the fast dirt surface? This one has a 3-3-5 mark. Has a win and two seconds here in 5 tries, too. Like the rider here. Chance. Why not? Someday Jones (7) returns off a short vacation for a barn that can get them ready off the bench. Rider has won with .11% of the last 38 mounts for this operation and this one could be a tough out at this reduced level. In 26 tries over a fast dirt surface? Has a 11-5-3 record. I use. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-3 in two smaller units. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 6-2-3-5-1 in two smaller, as well.
4th: 6-10/8-9-11-7/3-4/5-1-2…This figures to be a Wesley Ward showcase. The 2YO “Baby Race” will feature two of Ward’s top juveniles — including Happy Soul (6) and Nakatomi (10). The former gets HOF rider John Velazquez, and has been working lights out for the debut race. Son of Runhappy sold for $50,000 at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale. Dam has produced 6 winners from 8 starters and 1 Stakes winner. The barn is winning at a .32% clip this meet and with .29% with those making the debut. The latter is a 2YO gelding — didn’t take long to lose those precious commodities — and will get the services of future HOFer Joel Rosario. These trianer/jockey partnership has teamed up to go 3-3-0 in the last 9 races together. Working well, as well. I bet the Ward duo across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Period. Next?
5th: (13)-5-9/11-6-3-10/4-7/1-2-12…The first grass race of the day is a 11/8-mile contest for the fillies and mares. I give the edge to Mylastfirstkiss (13) if — for some reason — this event is moved off the sod and to the main track. If it stays on the green? I will feature the next two numbers — led by Chad Brown’s entry Linny Kate (5). This 4YO daughter of Tonalist comes if off two straight 3rds after winning the debut in Feb. of 2020. Last time out was a little short, but the “Place” horse that day came right back to win. With any improvement in conditioning here, this one figures to be a tough out with Rosario piloting. Stand Tall (9) could drift up in the odds department in this one. This 4YO daughter of Uncle Mo is the best bred thing in the race here. The dam, by Awesome Again, has thrown 1 turf winner from 4 starters and 2 winners overall. This one could be a SW down the road, too. Must use for me. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 5-9 over/uneer the 11-6-3-10-4-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 5-2-9/3-1-6-4/7…Deemed Essential (5) is the ML favorite, and rightfully so. The 3Yo daughter of Upstrart cost $125,000 to purchase as a yearling at Fasig-Tipton in 2019. Are you ready for this stat? Trainer is winning at a .58% rate this meet with 12 starters. Has 7 winners; 1 second; 2 thirds. Wow. Just Wow. Should improve with the return to dirt here and the work on April 4 is spot on. Look out. Seascape (2) is a 3YO Distorted Humor filly who ran 3rd on debut at the Fair Grounds. No threat last time out, but stretches out to the two turns for the first time and the barn wins with .14% of those kind. She should like the extra distance and could be a price, too. High Fashion (9) ran at this same level last time out and was a distant 2nd. Could improve here at a solid price point. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-2 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
7th: (8)-2-6/4-7/3-5/1…This is the 2nd turf event of the day and will be contested at the 11/8-mile distance. I will go with the MTO entry — His Glory (8) — if this one is moved off the sod. If it stays? I will key on Stunning Sky (2). This 4YO daughter of Declaration of War has not raced since late January. But she ran a huge 2nd in the Jersey Lady Stakes at Houston then. In only previous run here? Won last October in the G3 Valley View. Should be a late standout here, but will need a clear run. Winter Sunset (6) was my “Upset Special” last time out in the Tom Benson Memorial at the Fair Grounds. Had a very rough and tough trip in there and still was beaten less than 4. That was first trip since October. Could be a lot better here with a clean trip. Chance. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-6 in the exacta. I will key the 2-6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 7-3/5/6-1-8/9…Inspector Frost (7) is a nominee to the Triple Crown this year and will start here for the $20,000 price tag. Fall from grace, to be sure. Has not been even close since winning at KEE last October. Was spectacular that day. Maybe the return to this scene will spark some interest. Last work is interesting. Could wake up here. Verified (3) drops another rung in the claiming ranks after being 2nd at the $30,000 level on the grass at the Fair Grounds on March 14. In 6 tries over a fast dirt surface? Has a 1-1-1 mark. Could be the one to beat. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two more smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene