|2019 Overall 1,142||1,142/400-400-516|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.03%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.41%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –757 of 1,142||66.29%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 66-124||53.23%|
|Top Selection Win / KEE 33-124||26.61%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 12-1-1-1||0.83%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 186-71-36-22||38.17%|
OK, enough is enough.
We are ready to get back on top in his handicapping game. And, we think that there is no better today to restore order than to begin right here. Right now.
So, we may have slipped a bit over the last three handicapping days, we are going to focus on last Thursday. When we kicked butt. And, took some serious names. Power of positive thinking.
Here’s a look at today’s selections:
Race 1: 6/8-5/4-3-7/2-1…The first Key Play of the Day will come in the very first race today. There doesn’t promise to be a huge reward in this spot, but Unbridled Outlaw (6) does figure to be much, much the best in this spot today. Drops for half the price that he was offered up for in the last race. And, he won that one going gate to wire. The barn hits with .36% of those that “drop” in class after a win. Trainer is winning at a .25% clip in 822 starts this year, and the jockey who booted this one home last time out will get the assignment again. Looks to be much the best in this spot. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the “all button” in this spot.
Race 2: 4-5-1/8/11-6-(15)/12…Small Moment (4) comes into this one off a narrow loss last timer out. Will get further class relief in this spot today. Barn hits with .46% when getting this kind of drop, too. Winner of the last race came right back to win next time out. This one gets a veteran jockey, who definitely knows how to steer one around the oval. Kimberly Frances (5) gets a huge class drop, as well. The barn hits with .27% when they drop this much. Was wide in grass race last time out. Barn hits with .18% of those getting this surface switch. Paigely (1) is another class dropper. Barn hits with .17% when dropping this far. Meet’s leading rider takes the reins on this one for the first time. Winner in the last try came right back to win again. Rail is winning at a .19% rate at this distance, too. Big chance. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller versions.
Race 3: 9-5-(15)/12-10/7-2/(13)-(14)-1-4-8…Sequin (9) is a 2YO Bayern filly who will get back to the grass for trainer Wesley Ward. More importantly, for me, she will get back to what she does best, too, and that is sprinting. Ran two monster races to begin the career. Both sprints. Was plunged into the G1 Alcibiades Stakes last time out. On dirt. Going two turns. Going nowhere. Ran well for the first half, before tiring. She is a monster again in this spot. Love her dearly. My Key Play of the Day — for sure — and I bet the 9 to win/place and then key the 9 over/under the numbers listed. More on the 5. Less on the 12-10. Lesser on the 7-2. Even less on the 1-4-8.
Race 4: 6-5-1/2-10-7/(13)-11/3-4…Hong Kong Helen (6) gets the drop to the MCL level for the first time today, and the barn hits with .17% when that occurs. Wins at .22% rate in the MCL ranks overall. Has flashed tremendous speed in each of the first two tries. Tired in both. I don’t like that angle, especially when it becomes a pattern of behavior. But…This one is getting the class relief for the first time and that can help this one stretch her speed out farther. My pick. Sunflower Rose (5) ran well last time out for young trainer Norm Casse, who will add the blinkers today. Horses for him win at a .23% clip when adding the shades for the first time. Also, moves up a notch in the class department. That could be a positive spin for this one. Barn scores at .25% when moving up a notch, too. Broke slow and went wide the last time out. A little better start and this one could be right there. Wedontbeliveher (1) drops another notch in the claiming ranks today. Has raced 4 times already, with a second and a third against tougher. Should be nails at this level. But the last two races have been suspect, at best. Must improve. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.
Race 5: 5-7/12-2-8/11-2-3/(13)-1-9-6…Lontani (5) gets a solid check mark for me in this spot. This 4YO is trained by Tom Amoss for owner Maggi Moss, and they do very well together. Especially in this “claiming level games.” This one ran a very nice third last time out. Caught late. Now, the blinkers come off and the barn hits with .28% with this angle — in 32 sample size. Shorter distance helps here, too, IMO. Love the recent work here on Oct. 9. Dangerous in this spot. Nice of Me (7) picks up a solid rider change for this one, and gets another class drop here, as well. Neither will hurt his chances to finding the winner’s circle today. Love the work at Churchill Downs on Oct. 13. Roared that day. Will be coming late for a rider that does that very well. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box them in the exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 12-2-8-11-2-3 in two more smaller versions.
Race 6: 11-1/12-7-10-5/8-2-3-4…What a nice allowance race. Wow. This one will be contested at the 5.5-furlong sprint distance over the sod, and you have the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Champ in the #1-hole in Bulletin (1). He didn’t appear to like the experiment over the dirt in the last outing, and he has not won since he was here in April. Last 3 races, he has tired mightily when trying to finish what his speedy legs start. But today? Gets the blinkers for the first time! Barn hits with .20% of those. Gets the 3rd start off a layoff! Barn hits with .22% of those. Gets to start at Keeneland, again! He is 1-for-1 here. New rider. New business. I’m going with the rail horse and hopes he goes right to the front end. Bound for Nowhere (11) is likely to be the PT favorite, and he is my top choice on numbers alone. But this guy has not started since running a disappointing 13th at Royal Ascot in June. Has been training very well, but that’s a long layup — even for a trainer that hits with .21% coming off a layoff. Has 2 wins and a second in 3 starts at this distance. Has 2 wins and a second in 4 starts here. Has been training well. Still…I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-11 in one exacta. I will key the 1-11 over (only) the 12-7-5-10-8 in a smaller version.
Race 7: 4-7-1/2-8-5/6-3…Today’s featured event is a 6.5-furlong sprint over the main track, and I will give the edge to Alkhaatam (4) — who will be making the 3rd start off a short layoff. Also will be returning to action today as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .25% of those. If you look at the last race, you will see that he ran 7th and was beaten 8 lengths. But…Complete toss out for me. Checked off heels in the stretch of that one and dropped from 2nd all the way to 7th. Serious trouble there. Ran well over the grass the time before against Stakes company. Fits here. Fits very well at what could be an OK price at PT, too. My choice. Frolic More (7) will move up to face older ones again today. Did that back win May and it didn’t go too well. But he is older now and should be ready to tackle the likes of this group. Ran huge two races ago against Bourbon Calling, who came back to win here on Sunday. Figures. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 2-8-5 in a smaller version.
Race 8: 7-3-6/(15)-2-11-(16)-12-(14)/8-4-5-1-(13)-(16)…The finale today is a 13/16-mile endurance test over the sod. Hopefully, a little cooler weather and a few rain drops have softened this turf up a bit going into the last week of racing here. Either way, though, I will go strong with Job Security (7) — who will be getting back to the grass for the first time since the debut run here in April. Didn’t fare too well that day over a yielding track, but that was the inaugural run for a barn that normally does not have them cranked for the first outing. Last two races. Spot on. Sharp work here on Oct. 17. Solid rider, who was outstanding this summer in Chicago, gets the job. My pick at 5-1 on the ML. Bundibunan (3) is the 8-5 ML favorite, and, obviously, figures here. Ran a super race in the Dueling Grounds Derby last time out at KY Downs. Beaten less than 2 against a stellar field. That run will make him tough, tough, tough in this spot. Veteran jockey can figure out a spot to come late, too. Have to use some. My Upset Special of the Day, though, comes here, too, with Stage Ready (6). This one has run three super races in a row. Has never faced anything like Bundibunan, but seems to be getting better and with the longer distances. Stretches out even farther for this one. Sneaky good rider. Don’t know if he can beat the top 2, but I definitely use in the exotics mix — especially at 12-1 ML odds. I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 15-2-11-16-12-14-8 in a smaller version.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene