|Day Results||10 / 1-4-6|
|2020 Overall 1319||1319 / 462-444-550|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.03%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.80%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –848-1,319||64.29%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 14-31||45.16%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 6-31||19.35%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 2-1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 182-59-42-26||32.42% Win / 69.78% ITM|
Well, well, well.
We are back. (Even though I did think about the “bridge” a bit on Monday and Tuesday. Just kidding.) And, we are hoping to overcome a very low bar that we set in the past two days of live racing at Keeneland.
Over the last 21 races, we have managed a paltry two winners. One of those was Knicks Go. Who really went. But who was really low odds, too.
So, we don’t have to do much today or the subsequent days to be better. But we are hoping to be better. Much better.
Here’s a look at today’s events:
1st 6-3/4-5/2-1…Obsessed (6) rolls into this one off a very nice 2nd at Saratoga on Aug. 21. In the first 3 races of the career, does have a 2nd on the resume now. Barn wins with .23% of those shipping into a new locale. But the barn is red hot here. In 4 races, it has 2 wins and a second. Won two in a row at KEE on Sunday and won the G1 Spinster Stakes, too. If this 3YO son of More Than Ready improves a smidge, should be right there at the wire. Twenty Twice (3) is coming off a second over this track in July. Been off since then, but the barn can train up to a nice race and this 3YO son of Honor Code cost Calumet Farm a nice $275,000 to purchase as a yearling. Works look good coming in. Interesting rider choice given all the options, but the guy does work them hard when nearing the wire. Chance. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
2nd: 5-6/7-2/4-1/3…Skyvalue (5) ran out of gas nearing the wire of a $50,000 claiming event at Churchill Downs last time out on Sept. 20. Should relish the softer competition at the new price tag today, which is similar to what he faced two back. This one does have a problem finishing the job that she normally starts. But the rider is doing well here this meet and has had an awesome summer. Barn wins with .22% in the claiming ranks and that is with the last 54 starters in such. Tonal Vision (6) will be making the first career start for the new barn operator after being claimed last time out. New trainer wins with .15% after the purchase. Gets a new rider, who is having a solid meet here — winning at .20% rate. Interesting note here. Drops off the claim. Wow. Barn wins with .34% of those. Wow II. I bet the 6 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 5-7-8/1/9-11/3-10/4-6…The first grass event of the day is a marathon over a Autumn bluegrass. Can get damp at night. Can get a tad boggy after the sun heats it up. I will go with Tide of the Sea (5), who shows some nice efforts over “good” grass and can win over the firm going, too. Has not missed the board in the last 6 outings and has two wins and three seconds in that mix. Rider up is very good and wins with .17% of the last 36 mounts for this barn. Current (7) won a nice Stakes event over this grass as a 2YO. Now, the 4YO son of Curlin goes for his first win in two years. Drops into the allowance ranks for the second time in a row after a barrage of Stakes races and will stretch out to the long distance, again. Works well at Saratoga on Sept. 28. Loves it here. Maybe. At a firm price. Bourbon in May (8) won the last three times out and has steadily climbed from the $20,000 level into the staunch allowance ranks. Keeps getting better for the new barn that picked this one up for a mere $20,000 five races ago. New rider up. Has won with .30% of the last 23 rides for this barn. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two other exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 9-11-3-10 in two shorter units, as well. Like the 5 here.
4th: 1/5-6/2-4-3/10…I truly hate to play a 4-5 ML shot and a horse in a $10,000 Optional-Claimer as a Key Play of the Day, but Crazy Sexy Funny (1) figures out on top by such a margin that she should e the top consideration here. By several. The 4YO daughter of Munnings is coming off a 4-length win at Churchill Downs on Sept. 20 and has 6 wins in the last 9 races. Barn wins with .21% of those that won the last race; .22% of those gong a route of ground; .23% with dirt starts; and with .25% of 101 runners this year. Adds up to a tough out for me. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed.
5th: 9-11/4-6-3-2/1-10/7-5/8-12…A wide, wide, super wide open race here over the grass course. I will go with a slight nod to Spanish Kingdom (9) This one ran a better-than-looks 5th in the G3 Transylvania Stakes here in July. Beaten just a length by a real good one. Came back and ran well to be third as a beaten favorite last time out. Barn wins with .31% of those returning as the fan’s beaten choice. Has been working very well. Like this one here. Midnight Jostar (11) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 3YO son of Midnight Lute ran a real good one over this course in July to break the maiden. In 6 career starts on the sod, has a win and a second. Second came here, too. Loves this course. Look for more with a top rider up. I bet the 9-11 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 9-11 over/under the 4-6-3-2-1-10 in two smaller units.
6th: 1-6/3-2/4-5…Queen Nekia (1) is even-money in the Brisnet.com ML, and is coming off a Stakes win at Charles Town. Ran in a G3 before that. Should have the edge on these with the significant drop in class. Gets a top rider up and the barn operator has won with .23% of 437 races this year. Jockey has teamed up to go 2-0-1 in the last 3 rides for this barn. Key Play of the Day #2. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two exactas.
7th: 7-1-5/10-9-8-11/3-4-2-6…G2 Jessamine Stakes…Aunt Pearl (7) was impressive in the debut run, which rendered a 5-length win at Churchill Downs on Sept. 1. That was at the flat 1-mile distance and there was no doubt from the very beginning. Has worked very well since then for a barn that wins with .22% in Graded Stakes events. Irish-bred looks poised and ready for a repeat performance. Many others well-grouped and any/all could make a run in this spot. Batyah (1) may have a shot with a very late run, if not intimidated by the rail run. Ingrassia (5) comes from the barn of Chad Brown. Enough for me. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 1-5. Less with the 10-9-8-11. Lesser on the rest. Key Play of the Day #3.
8th: 8-2/1-6-9-11/7-10…Long Term Thinking (8) looks well-spotted in this one in his first try for the new barn operator. Claimed out of the last one at Saratoga, when 2nd at the wire. Taken off Chad Brown that day by a HOF trainer, who wins with .22% in the first try after the purchase. Works OK since the claim. Big chance against these types. Vedder (2) will make the 2nd start since the long, long layup. First outing was OK, before he tired late. Gets to the dirt today and he barn wins with .22% in the 2nd out off the vacation. Get a HOF rider up for the first time. Out of a SW mare. Work on Oct. 2? Spot on. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 1-6-9-11-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene