|Day Results||14 / 6-5-4|
|2020 Overall 1109||1109 / 399-364-454|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.98%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.58%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –727-1,109||65.55%|
|Top Selection ITM / SAR 53-78||67.95%|
|Top Selection Win / SAR 30-78||38.46%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 42-55||76.36%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 22-55||40.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ SAR 11-4-1-1||36.36% Win / 54.54% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 10-3-3-2||30.00% Win / 80.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 149-50-35-21||33.56% Win / 71.14% ITM|
We shift gears down to the all-turf, European-styled Kentucky Downs today, but what a cap to this most wonderful weekend of live Thoroughbred action in the Commonwealth.
There is no doubt.
The best racing in the entire Thoroughbred world has been in Kentucky. Right here. Right now.
KY Oaks on Friday.
KY Derby on Saturday.
Sunday was truly a day of rest for both the wallets and the breath.
Today, KY Downs and Stakes races galore.
Here’s our look at today’s card:
1st: 8-1-10/2-6-5-7/12-3/4…This is a 11/2-mile endurance test for the 3YO MSW level. Wow. Long way to go. Short time to get there. I go with Mud Pie (8), who is coming off a 2nd place effort in his first try over the sod at KEE in July. Was a longshot that day, but the dam of this one does have 2 turf winners from 4 starters and this one should improve with this try over the sod. Closed well that day after a terrible / bothered start. Gets a top rider for this one. Civil Servant (1) lost by a nose in his first try over the grass last time out. Came with a rush late, too. Worked a bullet since that effort. Looks poised. Can’t dismiss here. Mr Matuschek (10) has a second, two thirds and a fourth in 4 starts to date. The barn hits with .25% in the 3rd start off a layup. And, this one has some speed to use. Working very well for this one. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 10-2-6-5-7-12 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-9-5/2-7-3-6/1-4…High Crime (8) drops back into the allowance company after two Stakes tries. No match in the G1 Maker’s Mark at KEE in July. Almost won while sprinting at Ellis Park in the last one. Should fit nicely here. Has speed. Have to come catch. But must save some energy for that hill the last 1/8th of a mile. Corruze (9) drops back into the allowance ranks today, as well. Should appreciate the cut-back in distance, too. Has not hit the board in 3 tries this year, but overmatched in most of those. Barn wins with .25% when going sprint to route and back to sprint. Chance. Power Player (5) gets to a new trainer for the first time after being moved from the disgraced Jason Servis. Has worked well of late and the barn scores with .16% of those racing for the new connections for the first time. Has never sprinted this short, but looks like he fits nicely. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 8-5 over/under the 9-2-7-3-6-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-3-(14)/4-5-(16)-(15)/9-6/2-7-(13)…Fluffy Socks (8) ran a huge one at Saratoga on debut. Came up short at the end, but was coming. Barn hits with .29% in the second career start and gets a top rider to fit the seat today. Look for a big effort here. Bahama Mischief (3) will get to the grass for the first time today, and the barn hits with only .07% of those. But this one has turned in two good ones to begin the career for a trainer that does very well with a race or two under the belt. Dam of this one was Stakes placed and has a turf winner from the first 3 starters. Gets a top lawn rider for this one, too. Barn hits with .25% of those returning as a beaten favorite. I like. Army Wife (14) is on the AE List and will need some luck to get in the gate. But should be better at the added distance, if she makes it aboard. I bet the 8-3 across the board. (I like the 3 a lot here.) I box the top 3 numbers in the exacta — whatever they are. I key the 8-3 over/under the 4-5-16-15-9-6-2 in two smaller units. See who gets in from the AE List or no.
4th: 9-10/6-8/3-11-7/5-2-12…High Noon Rider (9) ships in from Virginia for this effort. Has been good of late, hitting the board in 5 of the last 6. Three wins in that group. Has a 7-2-2 mark in 21 starts at this distance. Barn hits with .33% of those returning as a beaten favorite, too. Like the rider choice. Has won on this one before. Ruler of the Nile (10) has never been this distance and just got to the grass for the first time in the last start. Ran OK at the sprint distance. Drops in class a bit for this one. Should help. Rider has won on this one before, too. Stalker. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 9-10 over/under the 6-8-3-11-7-5 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-11-(13)/10-2/7-5-9/3-6/4-2…Royal Prince (1) ran well for the barn of Brad Cox on debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 8. Broke horribly and came with a late rush to be 2nd. Barn hits with .36% when running over the lawn in the second start. Trainer has gone 8-6-1 in the last 24 starts, and this one worked nicely on Aug. 31. Another winner? Hoistthemainsail (11) is a horse named after my own heart. This 2YO son of Mizzen Mast ran well at Ellis on Aug. 16. Was favored that day, but ran 4th. Barn hits with .31% of those that make the 2nd start on grass. Also, the barn does much better on the 2nd start overall, too. Incitatus (13) has to be considered if he draws in from the AE List. I bet the 1-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers — whatever they are. I bet the 1-11 over/under the 10-2-7-5-9-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-9/2-6-7-12/(14)-(15)/1-10-8/3-11…Moral Reasoning (4) comes from the barn of Chad Brown, who normally does quite well in grass races. Right? Doesn’t he? From what I hear, he does OK, right? This one has not won in 4 starts this year. But gets back to allowance ranks and you can toss the last one — when he was totally blocked. Blocked. Gets a HOF rider up and should relish these links. Battleofwinterfell (9) could be a candidate for the Upset of the Day. This one has a win and two thirds in 4 tries over grass. Comes from a dam who has produced 4 turf winners from 8 starts and 1 Stakes winner. Chance. I bet the 4 to win/place/show. Strong. Sternly. I box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 4 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
7th: (16)-1-2-8/(14)-3-5-12/4-(15)-(13)/9-7-10…Sequin (16) would have to get a lot of luck to win this one. He has to have a lot just to get in the race, as the #16 on the AE List. If she did, though? Watch out. She zooms to the top of this list. Barn none. Strong candidate type. But if not? I go back inside and lock down on More Than Usual (1). This one nearly won last time out for the Cox barn, who is red hot, as we mentioned earlier. Got a tough one in the debut at Churchill Downs in June. Nearly won the last time out. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up now. Look out. Too Sexy (2) is a filly who cost $270,000 in the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has 2 seconds in 4 starts so far. Barn hits with .25% with beaten favorites. I bet the 16 if she gets in. If not, I bet the 1-2 across the board and box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 16 if in. If not, I key the 1-2 over/under the 8-14-3-5-12-4 in two smaller units.
8th: 6-11-10/5-4-7-12/8-(13)-(14)…Mint Juvenile Fillies Stakes…Plum Ali (6) comes into this one off a 2-length MSW win at Saratoga on July 23. Impressive in the debut. Dam has a turf winner from the first two foals and may have a SW after today. Can come late. Can run on. Gets a top rider up. Yogurt (11) is definitely my Upset Special of the Day. This 2YO ran huge in the first grass effort at KEE. Came back to try the dirt in the last try and was nowhere to be found. Why? Why? Not a good decision. Now back on the sod. Look for much better. Much. Cecile’s Chapter (10) is another that can add some value to the price plays. this one broke the MSW at Indy Grand by 7. Barn wins with .35% on the 2nd grass start and is red hot right now, too. Big chance here. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 6-11-1 over/under the 5-4-7 in two smaller units.
9th: 10-(14)-3/4-11/2-7-(16)-8/9-1/6-5-12…One Dreamer Stakes…Passing Out (10) is a 4YO filly who likes to run 3rd more than she likes to win. But she has the ability to win. So what do you do? Bet across the board, right? Ships in from Saratoga to try this one. Comes late. Should like this course. Gets a top lawn rider. Chance. Tapit Today (14) needs help getting in from the AE List. But if in? She becomes my #1. Varenka (3) has raced 11 times on the sod. Has a 3-2-2 record. Has been facing Graded Stakes company in each of the last 5 starts. Should fit better here. I bet the 14 if she gets in. If not, I bet the 10 and the…drum roll please…Our Bay B Ruth (11)…across the board. The #11 is another Upset Special, too. I box the 10-14-3-11 in one box. I key the 10-14-11 over/under the 3-4-2-7 in smaller units.
10th: 4-8-9/2-7-6/3-10/1-5…More Than Ready Juvenile Stakes…Shawdyshawdyshawdy (4) is a rather redundant name choice, but the 2YO son of Summer Front showed a lot of run in the lone win up at Saratoga on debut. Barn wins with .20% of those making the 2nd grass race and the dam of this one has 3 turf winners from 3 starters. Top rider up. Outadore (8) won on debut at Saratoga. That was sprinting. Now, has to stretch out, but the barn wins with only .14% of those routing for the first time. Short price may be vulnerable. Pivotal Mission (9) ran well at Saratoga last time out. Still a maiden. But may be ready. Gets the KY Derby winning rider up. Wow. Like that. I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers. I key the 4-9 over/under the 8-2-7-6-3 in two smaller units.
11th: 9-10-4/7-12/2-1-8-11/5-3…Tourist Mile Stakes…Flavius (9) comes from the barn of Chad Brown. Enough written. My pick, and at 6-1 ML odds. Kidding me, right? I’ll take that all day long. All day. Parlor (10) ran a huge one to lose the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile last time out by a slim nostril. That was to War of Will. If he runs that one back. So long. Neptune’s Storm (4) could spice up the odds rack here, too. Ran 3rd in a G2 last time out and has run in 9 straight Graded Stakes events. In 15 races over the grass? Has a 6-2-5 mark. Figures here at a price. Figures strong for me. I bet the 9-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 9-10 over/under the 4-7-12-2-1-8-11 in two smaller units.
Good Luck (I normally need a lot of it) & All the Best / Gene