|Days Results||9 / 3-2-5|
|2023 Overall — 1,316||1316 / 454-455-611|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.50%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.50%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 835-1,316||63.45%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7||57.14%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7||14.29%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 137-204||67.16%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 74-204`||36.27%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135||64.44%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135||33.33%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 101-144||70.14%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 57-144||39.58%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215||63.72%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215||32.09%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12||50.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12||33.33%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1||50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3||33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3||54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 47/18-10-4||38.30% Win / 68.09% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 193/83-38-20||43.01% Win / 73.06% ITM|
(Stats to be updated)
Here’s our looks at the massive, hugely important and wonderfully-crafted card at Kentucky Downs on the first Saturday of the abbreviated meet.
Three major Stakes events on the 11-race card.
No more waiting.
Let’s get to it.
1st: 2-4-8/11-(15)-(14)-(13)-1/9-10-12/6-(16)…Fun Loving (2) gets the call in the ole’ lid-lifter on this first Saturday in September and the lynchpin date of the Holiday weekend. While some of us will be tooling around the beautiful waters of KY Lake, we will have phone in hand and TwinSpires cranking. This 2YO filly by Constitution ran super on debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 13. Came with a power move late after dwelling at the start and losing all kinds of strategic ground. If this one breaks well and runs the same race? Look out. Pharoah’s Wine (4) is a speedster and nearly wired them the last time out and first time on the sod. Caught at the wire. Will need a tad more stamina here, with the stretch plowing new ground up the hill. Barn is 0-for-10 this year in 2nd tries over the sod. Ugh. Watchtower (8) is a first time outer for the barn of Chad Brown. Bred to love the ground and the dam was a Stakes-winner who has already thrown 2 turf winners. Rut-rho. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then double down on the win wager on the 8. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 2-8 over/under the 4-11-15-14-13-1-9-10 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-(13)-2/3-12/(16)-4-(15)/9-11/(14)/6-710…Heckled (1) gets the nod here. This 3YO Hard Spun filly has never won period, but is 0-3-1 on the grass. Comes off three straight runner-ups. Eventually? Frothy (13) is a huge threat, but must draw in from the AE List and then negotiate the wide post. Neither of those requests will be easily filled. Doral (2) goes for a HOF trainer, who wins with .13% of the last 957 on the sod. Gets a veteran rider who knows these hills and dales well. Chance. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 13-2-3-12-16-4-15 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-5/3-7-6/4//1//8…Arrest Me Red (2) is the ML favorite, but I have loved this one for quite some time. Ran a huge 2nd at Saratoga last time out. Needs to find a little more at the end here. But the tank should be filled and ready to go. HOF rider up. Love it. Heaven Street (5) could pull a small upset, if you are watching and wagering. Will make the first start for the new barn after selling for $210,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Horse’s of Racing Age Sale earlier this year. Big shot. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 3-7-6-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-(13)/(16)-11-10-2-(14)/6-7-8-4/1/5…Free and Humble (3) ships in from the Left Coast for a try here over the hills and dales. Won the last time out over a traditional flat surface. But the dam of this one has been super productive with grass runners. Has 2 sod winners from 4 starters and a Stakes winner. Will stalk and pounce, if allowed. And the rider will allow. American Starlet (13) has a big shot if she draws in from the AE List. Has hit the board in 6 of 10 lifetime tries over grass. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 13-16-11-10-2-14-6 in the exactas.
5th: (16)-(14)/10-(15)/1-5/3-11-2/4-6-7…The AE List is blowing it up on this Saturday. Top two picks will have to draw in. If they do? I bet ’em. If they don’t? I can’t. So, I divert to Do Your Job (10). This 2YO has run two super nice races so far. Still looking for the first win, but so are the rest of these, too. Dam was a winner and has thrown 2 turf winners from 5 starters. I bet the 16-14 if either or both draw in from the AE List. If not, I bet the 10 across the board and then key the 10 over/under the 15-1-5-3-11-2 in the exactas.
6th: 11-12-(13)/7-10-(15)/1-2-3/9-(16)/5/6…Dunedin (11) is my first Upset Special Alert. This 3YO son of Munnings tossed a clunker last time out. But that was a horrendous trip and now gets a good grass rider to take the reins. Has a win over this course in 2022 and experience here is a huge help. Look for more of the same. Good Heart (12) has a win in only previous try here, too, and comes in with a solid resume this year. Picks up a huge rider switch. Huge. I bet the 11-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 11-12 over/under the 13-7-10-15-1-2-3 in two smaller units.
7th: 3-1/12-(15)-9/6-8-4-2/11-(13)…Beer Run (3) is a name I can get on board with and a horse I can get on track, too. This 3YO son of City of Light weakened in the last one at Saratoga. Toss for me. Gets the same HOF rider back up and I love this pedigree. Look out here, folks. Could pop. Cigarette Boat (1) picks up a huge rider switch and goes to a jockey who has huge success over this sod. Has 4 finishes on the board in the first 7 outs. About time to crack the circle. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 12-15-9-6-8-4-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 10-6-9/2/5/3/7/1-8-4…Gun Runner Stakes…The first Stakes event of the day will be contested at the mile distance and I will saddle up with Major Dude (10). This one ran better than it looks in the G2 last time out and has hit the board in 5 of 7 this year. Look for this one to mix it up right off the pace and charge up the hill in the home stretch. Love the rider choice here. Love it. Talk of the Nation (6) goes for a top trainer and has been either first or second in 5 of 6 lifetime tries. Hard to knock. Look for this speedster to be right in the front at the wire. Wadsworth (9) has never been worse than 2nd on the grass and has 2 wins. Barn is having another terrific year. Launching at the end. And, track plays to closers. I bet the 10-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
9th: 1-(16)/7-10-12-3/8-9-11/5/4-(13)/(15)…G3 Music City Stakes…This sprint event is a dandy and I will lean on the railbird — Danse Macabre (1). This one is solid odds and comes in off two wins in a row and three in the last four outs. Loves the sod. Has a win here. Lots to like. I’m sold. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 16-7-10-12-3-8-9-11 in the exactas.
10th: 10/5-8/6-2/1-7-3/9/12/11…G3, $2 Million Mint Millions…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Annapolis (10). This 4YO son of War Front has won nearly as much as the purse here is worth. Has gone 6-4-0 in 11 sod runs, to date. Nearly won last time out and the barn wins with .25% of the last 162 when making the 3rd start off the layoff. Sharp work on Aug. 27. Love the rider switch. Love it. I’m all in here. I bet the 10 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under the 5-8-6-2-1-7-3 in the exactas. More with the 5-8 than the rest.
11th: 9-(15)/4-(16)-(14)/12/6-10-11//3-8…The day’s finale is a sprint event and I go with Cowichan (9). This Irish-bred gal has never missed the board in 5 tries and should love this trip. Love it. I’m in. All in. All. In.l I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 15-4-16-14-12-6-10-11 in the exactas. More with the 15-4 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene