Days Results 11 / 0-5-4
2023 Overall — 1,346 1346 / 458-467-621
Win % of Top Pick 34.03%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.29%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 849-1,346 63.08%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KY Downs  — 9-21 42.86%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KY Downs — 2-21 0.10%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7 57.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7 14.29%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 142-213 66.67%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 76-213` 35.68%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 101-144 70.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 57-144 39.58%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 50/18-12-4 36.00% Win / 68.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KY Downs 2/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 198/83-40-20 41.92% Win / 72.22% ITM

(Stats to be updated with KY Downs’ cards on 9-2-23 and 9-5-23)

Here’s our looks at the super card that will be served up on this Super Saturday of racing. Six Stakes are on the bill. Four of them are Graded Stakes. And, the purses? Well, they will near $9 million in the offering plate.

So…let’s get cranking…

1st: 5-8/(13)-10-11-(14)/2-3-(16)/4-(15)/9/6/1-7…Permed (5) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Super Saturday of racing over the hills and dales on West KY. This 2YO Street Boss filly ships in for a HOF trainer, who registers .23% win rate out of the last 898 to travel for a race. Goes dirt to turf, too, and the barn wins with .19% of those kind. Ran very well at Belmont over the sod just two back. Looks ready. Noto (8) goes for a top trainer in the land, who is winning with .26% of the 109 starts this year. Picks up a top grass rider for the first try. Sharp work on Sept. 2. Look out here. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 13-10-11-14-2-3-16 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 8-9-(16)/(14)-3-11-(13)-12-2/4-7-10-6/5…British Sea (8) could spice up the odds rack here. Listed at 6-1 in the ML by my good friends over at Brisnet.com, the only place you need to go for all your handicapping needs. This son of English Channel is bred to love this surface and was nipped a nose in the inaugural try. Look for more here with the pick up of a top rider in these parts. Vivaldi (9) goes for the barn of Chad Brown, who just so happens to be the best turf trainer in the land, and has been for a decade now. This one will make the first start and the barn wins with .17% of the last 282 to debut on the sod. English Channel mare. Like. I bet the 8-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/under the 16-14-3-11-13-12-2 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 5-2-3/1-4/6…G3 Ladies Marathon Stakes…The first of 6 Stakes on the card today and the first Graded event out of 5 that will be run over the dips and crannies. This one is a long-distance event scheduled for 15/16-miles. I go with Vergara (5). If the rider does not fall asleep and get lost in the background, look for this one to make the early lead and could carry them all the way around. Has a win over this track before. That always helps here. Personal Best (2) goes for a HOF trainer, and has the pedigree to excel on this surface. Has gone 3-3-3 in 11 grass events so far. A win here, too. Transient (3) won the last time out, but that was on the Tapeta after being moved from the sod at Gulfstream Park. Still, likes this surface best. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 3-1-4-6 in two smaller units. 

4th: 6-11/7-(14)/(13)-1/3-(15)-(16)-4/2-10-12/5-8-9…Lilac Girl (6) has not been out since April, but this barn operator knows how to win off the bench. Has won with nearly .20% of the last 97 that has been away from the gate this long. Working well. Gets a top grass rider up. Lots to like here. Frontal Attack (11) has recency on her side and will get the world’s top jockey up for the first time, too. Will be the one to beat, and I don’t think they will. Take note. I bet the 11 — take note — across the board and then box the 6-11 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-11 over/under the 7-14-13-1-3-15-16-4 in two smaller units. 

5th: (15)-2-11-(16)/4-8-6-9/7-5/3…My top number here goes to Wicked Again (15), who is parked way, way, way out on the AE List. Unlikely to get in here and that’s a shame. Looks much the best of these, to me. If in, I go hard. If not? I will revert to Torigo (2), who is still looking for that first win, as well. Ran 2nd last time out at Belmont Park. That was the first try this year. Gets a huge rider switch here and should like this going. Bridge Commander (11) will be running on in the late going and it does not hurt his chances at all that the stretch is a demanding uphill climb. Very talented grass rider gets the leg up here. Chance. I bet the 15 if in. If not, I go with the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers of the horses listed above that make the gate. I will key those 3 over/under the 8-6-9 in two smaller units. Spread race here, for me. 

6th: 11-4-10/9/6-(14)/1-7-12-(13)/2-5-8…Corelli (11) gets the nod here. This one goes for a trainer who is winning at a .29% rate this meet after 7 tries and is coming off a nice win over at Ellis Park in the last outing. Has hit the board in 11 of 21 grass tries. Experience. Helps. Dripping Gold (4) may be able to pull the upset here, too. This 4YO son of Lemon Drop Kid certainly has the breeding to enjoy this trip and has hit the board in 7 of 13 lifetime tries over the sod. Gets a familiar face on the back. Look out here. Balladeer (10) ships in from the Left Coast for a try here. Has run here once before in 2022 and came in a tiring 4th. Has speed to burn. Will have to catch late. I bet the 11-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9 in two smaller units. 

7th: (13)-7-8/2-4-1/11-12-(14)-(15)/3…This is a MSW event that will be contested at the 1-mile distance and once again I will go to the AE List for my top pick — Mirabella (13). This 3YO daughter of Into Mischief cost nearly $700,000 as a 2YO last year and has won only $43,000 to date. Lot of digging to make up this ground, yet. But gets a HOF rider back up and should benefit from the 3rd start off the layoff. Looks like this one has talent. Just needs to break through. King’s Secret (7) gets the nod if the #13 does not draw in. This Brit-bred ran a super one at Saratoga back in July. If she can duplicate that effort? Lights out. I bet the 13 if in. If not, I go to the 7 and go across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 13-7 over/under the 8-2-4-1-11-12 in two smaller units. 

8th: 11-(14)-2/6-10/7-8-12/4/3/1-9/5…G2 Exacta Systems Franklin Simpson Stakes…This G2 event will be contested at the sprint distance of 6.5 furlongs and I go to th outside and line up with Closethegame Sugar (11). This 3YO son of Girvin does not have a super pedigree or come from a huge barn operation, known far and wide. But? This one has run 3 super races in the career and could add another one here. At 6-1 ML odds? Why not. Like. Mischievous Angel (14) warrants a serious look if this son of Into Mischief were to draw in from the AE List. Trainer is golden on the green. G2 may have been a bit much to chew in the 2nd career start and it was rated “good.” This surface will be hard and dry. Look out if in. I bet the 11-14 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 11-14 over/under the 2-6-10-7-8-12-4 in two smaller units. 

9th: 3-7/2-6/5/1-4…G3 Castle Hill Gaming Ladies Turf Stakes…This is a 1-mile event and I saddle up with White Frost (3). This 5YO Candy Ride mare is 9-5 in the ML and may drift up a bit in the odds before PT. Either way, this gal is the real deal. Has never missed the board in 9 lifetime tries over the sod and has a record of 3-5-1. Gets a rider who is as talented as anyone in the biz, when he is on. Is he on today? Shall see. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-7 solidly in the exactas. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 2-6-5 in two smaller units. 

10th: 1-12-8/7-5-4/10-11/3-6/2-9-(13)…G2 Ainsworth Turf Sprint…This is a 6-furlong challenge and is a wide open affair. I will go with One Timer (1) from the rail in this spot. Has a win here and has speed enough to gun and go early. Rider ships in from Chicago to pick up the repeat mount. Rider has won on this one the last 3 times he was up and 5 of the last 6 times her rode this son of Trappe Shot. At the other extreme part of the starting gate is Dr Zempf (12), who was shipped in for trainer Chad Brown. Won the first start in this country back in March but has struggled since. Came from off the pace again in the G1 Jaipur, which is the preferred running style, IMO. Look out here. Like the odds and the rider choice. Nobals (8) screwed me out of a huge Pick 6 ticket on KY Derby Day. Why? Why Nobals? But this one has splendid speed. Can he go this far? I don’t think so. I bet the 1-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 1-12 over/under the 8-7-5-4-10-11 in two smaller units. 

11th: 6-3-2/9-7-5/4/8…G2 AGS ladies Turf Sprint…Bay Storm (6) has raced on the grass 16 times in the career. Has gone 5-6-3. Splendid record for a top trainer. Gets a rider who won on this one last time out at Ellis Park. Has a 2nd over this surface in2022. Lost that one by a stinking nose. Look  out here, with a nice stalking style. Wakanaka (3) has not won this year and that is a criticism. But this one has hit the board in 15 of 19 lifetime and has 8 wins in that mix. Knows how to find the wire. Will close here. Quaria Comet (2) goes for a highly underrated trainer and has a win here, too. That came in September a year ago. Chance. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 2-9-7-5-4 in two smaller units. 

12th: 11-2/(15)-3-8/1-4-6-12-(14)-(16)/7-5…G2 FanDuel Kentucky Turf Cup…This 11/2-mile marathon carries a purse of $1.7 million and is reason enough to stick around to the very end of the day’s festivities. I go with Therapist (11). This one has gone 3-1-1 in 6 starts this year and comes off a win in the G1 United Nations last time out at Monmouth Park. Has a win at this distance. Will be coming late. Very late. Needs running room. But the rider is having a banner year and should love this ground. Red Knight (2) is now a grizzly 9 years old and has nearly $2 million in purses won. Loves this track, too. Has a win and a runner-up in two starts here. Gets a top rider and the last time seen here? Won this same race a year ago. That’s never easy to duplicate, but this one has real talent and has gone 2-1-1 in 5 starts this year. Could be coming with a steam late. I bet the 11-2 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 11-2 over/under the 15-3-8-1-4-6-12-14-16 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene