Days Results 9 / 3-2-5
2023 Overall — 1,316 1316 / 454-455-611
Win % of Top Pick 34.50%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.50%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 835-1,316 63.45%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7 57.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7 14.29%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 137-204 67.16%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 74-204` 36.27%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 101-144 70.14%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 57-144 39.58%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 47/18-10-4 38.30% Win / 68.09% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 193/83-38-20 43.01% Win / 73.06% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Ellis Park’s card on Aug. 28)

Here we go. Handicapping and wagering 101. At its’ very best.

Get ready for some box cars, and doozy payoffs.

Get ready for some mystery and intrigue.

Get ready for some surprises and shocks.

And, get ready to rumble.

On this day we start the abbreviated, but highly anticipated and fun meet over the all-turf surface at Kentucky Downs, in little Franklin, KY and near the Nashville city limits.

We hope you join us for this rollercoaster race course and ride of a handicapping lifetime.

Here we go.

1st: 5/(15)/1-9-12-4-(13)-(14)/10-7/8/3-6-11-(16)…It is rare that you get the opportunity to single-in, zero-down and focus on a horse in any race that is featured over the hills and dales of Kentucky Downs. But we get a possible chance in the ole’ lid-lifter to the day and the meet this Friday with Bundchen (5). This 2YO daughter of the great, young stallion Gun Runner threw a clunker at Royal Ascot. But she is not the first or will be the last to do that. She ran super over the mud at KEE in April for a top 2YO and turf trainer, who is winning at a .29% rate this year after 216 starts. Barn loves this meet, too, and the rider has had a field day over this field place. Lots to like here. I jump on board with both feet and fists. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the 15-1-9-12-4-13-14-10-7 in the exactas. More with the 15, if this gal draws in from the AE List. If not, more with the 1-9-12-4.

2nd: 8-(13)-4/3-11/1-9/5-2-6-7-10-12…Hidden Class (8) ran very, very well in the debut at Saratoga on Aug. 3. Was steadied at the start of that one and compromised for much of the short, 5.5-furlongs. Gets a new rider here and the barn is winning at a steady .16% clip this year after 252 starts. Will come with a late run, it appears. Crazy Cami (13) could be dangerous for the barn of Mike Maker, who always does well here. But this one will need some luck just to make the gate from the AE List. Watch to see if this gal draws in, though. Urban Dreamer (4) ran super at Ellis Park on July 9. Barn wins with .24% of the last 25 to make the 2nd career start. Nice. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-13 over/under the 4-3-11-1-9-5 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 1-4-8/3-6/5/2-7/9…Strikingly Spun (1) has been up against Graded Stakes company in the last two, and drops back into an optional-claimer here. Should appreciate the class relief and picks up a HOF rider in the process. Will be coming late and should appreciate the uphill climb in the home stretch. One to watch — late. Federalist Papers (4) goes for a top grass trainer and ships in from Saratoga, where she ran a super 2nd last time out at the marathon distance. Should be a late threat, as well. Has a tidy 2-2-3 mark in 11 grass starts. Shad Nation (8) lost momentum late last time out at Belmont Park, but the previous two were spot on. Has a win over this turf in the past, too, and that angle plays very well here. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 4-3-6-5 in two smaller units. 

4th: 1-7-4/2-8-10/9/11//3-5/6…Happy Soul (1) is another from the barn of Wesley Ward and will get the return saddle job of a HOF rider. Has a 2nd in only previous turn of foot over this sod track. Has speed and should be able to carve out a nice trip from the inside here. Linguistic (7) had hit the board in 5 straight before running a troubled 4th last time out. Gets a rerun to the saddle of Kentucky’s best jockey and should respond accordingly. Threat. Static Fire (4) has 3 wins in 6 starts and a victory in 4 tries over the sod. Trainer is red hot these days, going 3-0-2 in the last 7. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then  box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-7 over/under the 4-2-8-10-9 in two smaller units. 

5th: (15)-1-(16)/4-12-(13)/9-5-2/11/3-6-10…This is a MSW event that will be contested at the 1-mile distance and I go to the AE List for my top number and contender — Wicked Again (15). This 3YO son of Gun Runner is owned by the same man who owns the track and could make the turf debut here. Dam of this one was a Stakes winner and has already thrown a turf winner. Dangerous. Danger. Ous. Utah Beach (1) has a top grass pedigree and the dam of this one has produced 5 turf winners. This guy should benefit from the first start and should have something left for the uphill stretch run, too. Could slide up the odds board by PT. I bet the 15 solidly if he were to draw in from the AE List. If not? I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers. I go with the 15-1-16 if the outside horses get in. If not? I box the 1-4-12. 

6th: 6-11-7/10-9/1-8-5/4/3-2…Iridescent (6) comes in off a MSW win over the dirt at Ellis Park, for a barn that wins with .17% on first grass tries. Heavily bet in the debut and the barn is red hot. Doesn’t always fire the best shots at this abbreviated meet, but this one could kick start a solid effort. Love the sire line and the breeding. Aspenite (11) will try the grass for the first time and the barn wins with .13% of the last 284 to do that. Owner knows this track pretty darn well. Love the speed this one showed in the debut. Look out. Darkroom (7) will race as a gelding for the first time and should be a tad more focused on the job today. Won the debut at Ellis as the favorite, as it was. Gets a rider who knows how to close – if he is paying attention. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-9 in two smaller units. 

7th: 1-3-6/4-7-2/9//8/5…Injunction (1) does not have a ton of experience or success on the sod, but does have ability. Has speed and should be a force own the front here. Worth a look and a shot, IMO. Big Dreaming (3) is much more experienced on the sod and comes in with a tidy record of 3-3-1 in 10 grass starts. This one has speed, too, and could be a tough one to catch late. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 6-4-7-2-9 in two smaller units. 

8th: 4-(15)-10/9-12/8-5-6-7/(14)-(13)/1-2-3…Zeitios (4) is a daughter of the great sire Curlin and a Stakes-winning mare. Has speed and has hit the board in 4 of 5 lifetime. Rider has won with a whopping .34% of the last 35 saddle jobs for this barn. Look out. Candle (15) could be a real threat, but has to draw in from the AE List. Not an easy job, either. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 15-10-9-12-8-5-6-7 in two smaller units. 

9th: 1-11-10/4-7-3-(14)/2-9-(13)/5/6-12…Tapit Stakes…The first Stakes event of the meet is worth a whopping $500,000 and I go with another railbird — Portfolio Company (1). This one comes from the barn of Chad Brown, who just so happens to be the best turf trainer in the land. This one nearly won his third in a row last time out and will make the KY Downs debut here. Should love this surface and can finish a job. Cabo Spirit (11) ships in from a G2 at Del Mar and has a ton of Graded Stakes experience. Has won nearly $500,000 in purses over the grass so far. Must respect this son of Pioneerof the Nile. Flavius (10) is another from the Left Coast. Has run here twice before, with a win. Looks poised after the last race. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 11-10-4-7-3-14 in two smaller units. 

10th: (16)-(14)/11-8-9/5-6-12-4-7/3/10/1-2…The finale is a MSW event and may be the toughest race to handicap on the card. Wide. Wide. Wide. Open. I go with a couple from the AE List, if they draw in. Must respect either the 16 or the 14. If they don’t make the gate? I go with the first timers — led by Move to Gold (11). this is another from the Chad Brown barn and looks ready to rock, if not roll. Publius (8) goes for the Cox team and looks formidable off a.m. works. Channeler (9) could be a huge upset, as well. Dart throwing time. I bet the 16-14 if they get in. If not, I bet the 11-8 across the board and box the top 3 numbers in either case. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene