|Days Results||11 / 0-5-4|
|2023 Overall — 1,346||1346 / 458-467-621|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.03%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.29%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 849-1,346||63.08%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KY Downs — 9-21||42.86%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KY Downs — 2-21||0.10%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 4-7||57.14%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 1-7||14.29%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 142-213||66.67%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 76-213`||35.68%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135||64.44%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135||33.33%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 101-144||70.14%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 57-144||39.58%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215||63.72%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215||32.09%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12||50.00%|
|2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12||33.33%|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1||50% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3||33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4||46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1||20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0||100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3||54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 50/18-12-4||36.00% Win / 68.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KY Downs 2/0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 198/83-40-20||41.92% Win / 72.22% ITM|
(Stats need to be updated after 9-3-23 races at KY Downs…coming soon)
Here’s our looks at this Thursday’s card over the hills and dales of the KY Downs sod:
1st: 10-5/6-1/2-11-3-8/4-7-9…Pine Knoll (10) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter down under the rainbows and over the grass knolls of Kentucky Downs on this kick-start to the racing week in K-Y. This 6YO gelded son of City Zip has some old pedigree to fall back on, and the dam of this one has thrown a turf winner, too. This guy has gone 3-4-2 in 15 grass starts and has a 3rd in only previous run here. Picks up a huge rider switch for this affair and that should assist the program. Toss the last one and I can go heavy here. Bizzee Channel (5) has some back class, although is 0-0-1 in 3 starts this year. Does have a couple of 2nds and a 3rd on the resume in 4 starts here. Horses that do well here in the past have a way of returning “home.” Look out. I bet the 10-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 10-5 over/under the 6-1-2-11-3-8 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-8/2-6-7/11-1/10-12/9-5-3…Shankar (3) ships in from Florida for this affair and picks up a rider who has done quite well with this one in the past. Has a win and a 2nd in two previous rides. Dam of this one has a lot of turf success in the past and that helps the cause, too. Look out. Princely (8) could be the first Upset Alert on this card. This 3YO son of Palace Malice nearly won on the dirt at Ellis Park last time out. Has only one try over the sod in 9 career races and it didn’t fare too well. So, surface is a concern. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-8 in one set of exactas. And, I will key the 3 over/under the 8-2-6-7-11-1-10-12 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1/6-2/5/3/4//7…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with a single — Delight (1). This daughter of Mendelssohn could be an Upset Alert of the Day, too. This one is set at 6-1 odds in the ML by the fine folks over at Brisnet. com. Trainer of this one is having a super year, winning with .26% of the 105 starts. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time and the barn does well with that addition. Gets a top grass rider up and this one has 3 wins in the first 8 turf races. Lots to like here. I bet the 1 across the board and then key the 1 over/under the 6-2-5-3-4 in the exactas. More with the 6-2 than the rest of them.
4th: 3-7-10/8/4-(13)-6/5-(13)-(14)/5…Could be a big day for the #3 horses here. Miranda Rights (3) will tote the saddle cloth in this one . Gets a rider who has done well with this one in the past. Has a 2nd in only previous shot here and the barn wins with .23% of the last 341 to return to the gate as a beaten favorite. Lots of credentials building up. He’s Got Swagger (7) has a shot here, too, at a nice 8-1 ML price tag. This 3YO son of Temple City comes in off two solid efforts and three in the last four outings. Clever veteran takes the reins back. Never has won on the sod, but does have 3 runner-ups in 5 tries. Baba Voss (10) could move right up the claiming game ranks here, after breaking the MSW last time out. Top trainer knows how to move up and win, capturing .23% of the first win afterwards.
5th: 7-(13)/2-5-6/1-9-(16)/12/3…Committee of One (7) looks the best on paper here, at least to me, that is. This 2YO son of Mendelsson will make the 2nd grass start here and nearly won when coming very late in the inaugural effort — at Ellis Park on Aug. 19. Rider has teamed up to win .22% of the last 37 efforts together. Has some stalking ability and could get first jump up the hill and when the real running begins. In a Jam (13) must draw in from the AE List, but this 2YO son of Preservationist could be a real handful if he does. From a Stakes-placed dam who has 4 winners from the first 5 starters. Sharp work on Aug. 30, as well. I bet the 7-13 across the board and then double down on the 7 in the win bet wager column. I will key the 7 over/under the 13-2-5-6-1-9-16 in two smaller units.
6th: 3/1-4-6-9/10/5/2-8//7-11-12…The second Key Play of the Day comes here with Quaria Comet (3). This 4YO Shackleford filly has a win over this track in 2022 and that was at odds of nearly 10-1 for a highly-underrated conditioner. Rider is 0-for-6 for this barn of late. Ugh. But this one has real talent and may be able to overcome any hidden agendas. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 1-4-6-9-10-5-2-8 in the exactas. More with the 1-4-6-9 than the rest.
7th: 2-(13)/4-7/(14)-10/5-6-11/3-12/1…Sri Lanka (2) gets the nod here. With authority. This 3YO Munnings filly comes from a dam who has not had a grass winner and the sire line probably prefers the dirt, too. Got that working against us here. But this one has run three huge 2nds out of the first 4 races and now gets a top grass rider for this one. Lots to like in the PPs. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-13 if that latter draws in from the AE List. If not? I will key the 2 over/under the 4-7-14-10-5-6-11 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-(14)/4-10-12/8-9-11-(15)/(13)-6/13…Hidden Path (5) is a 3YO son of Hard Spun and my Upset Alert Pick of the Day. This one comes in off a debacle in a Stakes at Ellis Park on Aug. 5. Never got in the mood to run that day, without a doubt. I toss that one as a bad hair day and lean on the fact that this one has 2 wins and a 2nd in the other 4 races so far in the career. Top trainer hooks up the gear and a top rider is going to take his hand at getting this one a victory. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 5-14, if the latter draws in from the AE List. If not? I will key the 5 over/under the 4-10-12-8-9-11 in the exactas. More with the 4-10-12 than the rest.
9th: 4/3-7/5-9/1-8/2-6…$500,000 One Dreamer Stakes…This is a Stakes event for the fillies and mares and will be contested at the distance of 1 mile & 70 yards. I go with my next Key Play of the Day — Haughty (4). This 4YO Empire Maker filly has raced over the sod a total of 9 times so far. Has 3 wins. Has 3 thirds. Has another 4th. Dam of this one has thrown 6 turf winners, too. Pedigree there. Race record there. Should step up and out over the hills and dales here. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 4 over/under the 3-7-5-9-1-8 in the exactas. More with the 3-7 than the rest.
10th: 3-(16)/1-(15)/8-10-11/6/5-4-9/2-(13)…The finale of the day is a 1-mile test for the MSW level 2YO fillies and I go with Judgement (3). This is another from the barn of Todd Pletcher, who is having a good summer in KY with his “leave-behind” runners. This gal is a daughter of a top stallion and a Stakes-winning mare. Should love this oval and gets a come-from-behind rider for the occasion. Ran that way in the debut. Coming very late. Should be better with a race under the girth. Barn wins with .21% of the last 342 to make the 2nd career start. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. Triple down, too. I will box the 3-16, if the latter draws in from the AE List. If not? I will key the 3 over/under the 1-15-8-10-11-6-5-4-9 i n the exactas. More with the 1-8-10-11 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene