|Day Results||10 / 5-5-1|
|2020 Overall 438||438 / 153-143-173|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.93%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.69%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –273-438||62.33%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 180-291||61.86%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 104-291||35.74%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 44-11-11-8||25.00% Win / 68.18% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 64-19-16-9||29.69% Win / 68.75% ITM|
(We were on the mark on Friday. Hoping for more on Saturday)
What a nice Friday. Sunshine. Sat in the street with neighbors and swapped stories of when we used to go out for dinner on Friday night. And, cashed some winners at Oaklawn Park.
We finished with 4 straight triumphs at Hot Springs on Friday and nailed 5 wins on the 10-race card. Had a couple of “Key Plays” that won. Had 7 exactas to return.
What a nice Friday, right?
Here’s hoping we can keep up a little of that mo-jo on Saturday and here’s our selections for Oaklawn Park today:
1st: 2/12-4-11/7-1/6-10…The first “Key Play of the Day” will come in the very first race with Implicator (2). This 3YO son of Race Day comes in with 2 seconds in the first 3 career starts. Gets a top jock for the mount, again, and will be coming in the late going. Will get a fast track for the first time since the initial start. Should like the track better today. I am on board for this journey. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the numbers listed in the exacta.
2nd: 6-7/10/5-11-3-2/1-4-12/9…Esposito (6) gets the saddle from one of the hottest trainers here this meet. Has won with .24% of the 210 starters here. Was claimed last time our for $10,000 and shows up in the bargain bin here. Barn hits with a whopping .36% when dropping off the claim and .35% when dropping off a win. Wins with .24% on the first race after a claim, too. Barn’s go-to rider gets the reins. Look out. River Echo (7) will get the 2020 debut today for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who has had a solid meet here with a 9-13-6 record in 78 starts. This one has been training just OK for the return, and the barn hits with .17% when away this long. Rider has won only .04% of the 139 mounts here this meet. Hmmmm. Concern. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-(14)/1-5-4/12-8-2…North Side (7) ran a good one and nearly won last time out for MCL $40,000. Drops off that one and gets a fast track today. Both of those conditions should help this one, who likes to push the pace early on. The barn hits with .26% of those returning as a beaten favorite, too. This one cost $320,000 as a yearling in 2018. Now offered up for $30,000. I expect a claim here today. Preacher (14) could be a factor here if the 3YO Florida-bred gets in from the AE List. Has not run since last June, but drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and could be a nice surprise. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the “all button” in this one. I also key over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 2-6-8/10-7-3/1-5/9…Hardly a Secret (2) won here last time out when he got up at the wire by a nose. Barn has only hit with .07% this meet in 74 starts and has only 5 winners. This is one of them. But in 7 lifetime starts here, this one has a nice 3-1-2 record and the work on April 18 suggests that he is good right now. Look for another top performance. Street to Indy (6) absolutely stopped in the last outing. Jogged to the line in that one. But gets a huge drop in class for today’s event and has returned to work OK since that debacle. Look at the track condition in that last race. Sloppy. This one really does not like that racing surface. Look for more here at some possible odds. Hunka Burning Love (8) drops in class, too, and should fit better with these kind. Has never been offered up for this low of a price tag. Has never hit the board in 3 starts here. Hmmm. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 8-10-7-3-1-5-9 in two smaller units.
5th: 6-1/10-9/3-7/2-8/4-11…Town Champ (6) drops all the way from a high-class allowance event to the $32,000 price tag today. Won that last outing here, too, on April 9. Don’t know why the plunge, but if this one is alright? I think he could air this crowd. Loves to push the lead. Loves, loves this track — with 3 wins and a second in 4 tries. Short price, but could be impressive in this spot. Silver Ride (1) is another dropping considerably in the class department. Top barn operation knows where to spot them, to be sure. Look for more from this late closer, too. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-1 in the exacta. I key the 6-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
6th: 4-3-5/10-2/6-8/7-1-9…Firecrow (4) has never been better, coming into this one off a win two starts back and a very nice 2nd to Mojo Man in the last outing. Has speed to burn, burn, burn and will look to gas from the start here. If he can reserve enough in the tank, this one could be salty all the way today. In 6 starts at this distance, this one has 3 wins and a second. Nice ML price, too. St. Joe Bay (3) gets a top rider up for this one and is another speed burner in a race full of front-end types. Has only run once in the last year. That was in the G3 San Carlos Stakes at Santa Anita on March 7. Faded to last in that one. Now, drops in class and has some added conditioning for a trainer having a very solid meet. Can’t dismiss this one at this level. Just can’t. Nero (5) comes from the barn of Team Asmussen and is coming out of a Stakes event last time out. Will be a stalker in this group today and may have the perfect pace scenario in front of him, too. Watch out late. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 4-3-5 over/under the 10-2 in two smaller units, as well.
7th: (14)-(13)-7-11/4-10/8-6/2-5/1-9…My top two numbers in this race belong to the two horses that are parked on the AE List. If they draw into the race, then they both figure very prominently. If not, I will concede and go with Candy Store (7) — from the team of trainer Tom Amoss and owner Maggi Moss. They had a big day on Friday and could add to their win column here. This 4YO gelded son of Twirling Candy was claimed two starts ago. Ran very well pianist much tougher here on April 5. Now, gets back to the same class level where they plucked him. Should love this spot and a fast track, too. Barn hits with an overwhelming .40% of those making the 2nd start off a claim and with .29% of them returning as a beaten favorite. Take note. I bet the 7 to win/place/show — if the two AE List Horses do not draw in. I will box the 7-11 in the exacta. I will key the 7-11 over/under all the numbers in two smaller units. If the 14/13 get in? I box the 14-13-7. Still use the 7, for me.
8th: (13)-4-10-9/3-1/8-5-6/2-12/7-11…My top choice here will once again come from the AE List, if Ilchester Cheetah (13), a New York bred, can draw into the body of the race. Has faced open company in the past and done very well. Has won the last two and could have easily won the race 3 back, too. If this gal does not get in, I will go with a combo of the next three — led by Sneaking Out (4). This one has not run since last August when she was 6th in the G3 Torey Pines Stakes at Del Mar. Respite since. Training super here for a HOF trainer. Gets a huge rider switch and has a 3-4-0 record in 8 starts. I know she has been away, but hard to dismiss that record, right? I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units. If the 13 gets in? I use the 13-4; box them; and then key them over/under the same numbers.
9th: 4-7/9-3/1-8-5/2-6…Bachelor Stakes…What a nice field that has been assembled for this 6-furlong sprint for the 3YO boys. I go with my first Upset Special of the Day here with Ginobili (4) — who is 6-1 in the ML. This 3YO son of Munnings comes in with a dull and disappointing 5th in the last start here on April 5. Was beaten nearly 10 lengths and now moves up to Stakes company. What? There’s a big excuse, IMO. Broke at the rear; shuffled around and then pushed. No run whatsoever. This one does his best running either on or near the lead. And, look at the PPs. Ran second to Nadal — beaten less than a length — just two starts ago. In his 2nd career start? Whipped Honor A.P., a top 2YO a year ago. If this one can get out of the gate? Look out. Eight Rings (7) should be the heavy favorite. Trained by Bob Baffert, who has been nearly unstoppable with his runners here. This one is good, too. Real good. Can’t leave out. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then slam this exacta. I will key the 4-7 over/under the rest of the numbers — just in case — in two smaller units.
10th: 8-1/6-7-2/4-3-5…Carousel Stakes…I go with another Upset Special of the Day here, too. I go with Mia Mischief (8), who is listed at 9-2 in the ML. Man, I would love to get those odds. In 5 starts here in the past, she has 3 wins and 2 seconds. Won here on March 20 in a cakewalk. Looks to be sharp for Team Asmussen and will be motoring late. If the pace scenario sets up? Look out. Bellafina (1) is undoubtedly a class act filly. Love this distance choice for her, too. But it is well noted that she does not travel too well and that she does most of her good running at home — at Santa Anita. May be a touch over-bet here. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed. I am very bullish on the 8 here.
11th: 1-4-6/(13)/9-3-7-11/2-8/5…The final race on the card today is for MSW boys. Interesting group with a bunch that look good on paper — until it gets time to win at the wire. I will give a slight edge to Copper King (1). But, admittedly, he has had plenty of chances before today. Has run 9 times. Has 4 seconds and 3 thirds. Likes to get close. Can he win? Maybe a dry, fast track will assist it today. Unrighteous (4) ran so well in a MSW event on Feb. 8 at Gulfstream Park that trainer Todd Pletcher decided to enter and run in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in the last outing. No factor. But should fit better here. Gets a top rider, too. Aztec Empire (6) started the career in the barn of Chad Brown. Now, he resides in the stable of Ron Moquett, who is having a good meet here. Has run two thirds in a row and picked up the shades last time out. Returns as a beaten favorite today, and the barn scores with .24% of those kind. Son of Tapit has 3 thirds in 4 tries. May be ready to win. May be. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 13 if he gets in. If not? I key the top 3 over/under the 9-3 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
(Comments to Come Soon)