|Day Results||11 / 5-2-6|
|2020 Overall 449||449 / 158-145-179|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.19%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.78%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –283-449||63.03%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 180-291||61.86%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 104-291||35.74%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 44-11-11-8||25.00% Win / 68.18% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 66-20-17-9||30.03% Win / 69.70% ITM|
(Geno was toasty warm again on Monday. Looking to wrap up a nice weekend)
What a nice day at the ole’ ball yard.
Had 5 more winners out of the 11 races carded, and we hammered home 9 exactas out of the 11 races, as well. Our top selection hit the board in 10 of those 11 races, too.
And, our customers? The ones that call, text, twitter or email?
Well, some of those reaped the handsome returns of a nice Pick 5 wager that paid $2,600 for a .50-cent ticket.
If not that, then we did pick the last race exacta with the 25-1 shot and it rendered $124.00 for each $1 played.
Not a bad day for us and them. Not a bad day for all.
Here’s a look at the Sunday card. Hope we keep the momentum going:
1st: 12-11/3-2-1-4-(13)/5/7-8…We go to the far outside of the starting gate for our top two selections in the lid lifter. Joy in the Journey (12) gets the slight edge in this spot. In 7 previous tries here, this 5YO mare has 2 wins and a second. Faced open company last time out and held in there for awhile. Gets back to Arkansas-breds only today and may get a fast track for the first time in awhile, too. Had a big win here in February and the work here on April 10 was outstanding. Like the jock switch, too. Superstar Bea (11) gets the runner-up spot — despite the fact that she has raced here 12 previous times with only one win. Does have 2 seconds and 5 thirds in that mix, but the compelling reason for the pick is the fact that she will be dropping to an all-time low price tag for this affair. Will be facing much easier. Ran very well against open company at Hawthorne back in early December. If she can duplicate that number? I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 12 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-1-2/9-6/4-5-7…China Cat (3) was claimed last time out and now drops to half the price tag. Barn is 0-for-5 when dropping off the purchase, but this one just figures on paper here. Rider had hit with .14% for this barn. This is twice his average overall. Apprentice weight allowance could help, too. Hungry N Scrappy (1) drops from $40,000 level to this $12,500 rim today for a barn that hits with .32% of those getting this kind of class relief. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the trainer scores with .30% of them. Ran OK in the debut race, but was nowhere last time out. Look for huge improvement at this level. The one to beat. Revealing Quality (2) ran well at this level over at the Fair Grounds in January. Fits here. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 9-6 in a smaller unit.
3rd: 11-1-7/(14)-2-9-3/6-10/4-12…Miz Nightcap (11) goes for the dynamite team of trainer Robertson Diodoro and rider David Cohen. They have teamed up to win at a .20% clip over the last 69 mounts together. This one coming in off a very nice work here on April 15, too. Was claimed last time out for much more money. Barn hits with .36% when dropping off the purchase. Looks salty. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 3/1-12/8-(13)/5-10-9…The first Key Play of the Day will come here with Reach the Moon (3). This 4YO son of Tapit drops into the claiming ranks for the first time for trainer Brad Cox. Comes in off three turf tries and moves to the dirt. Ran a very nice 2nd two starts ago, too. If OK, this one is certainly a “claim prospect,” since he is fully intact and still a colt. And, seems to have both turf and dirt ability. Love the work at Fair Grounds on March 21. I bet the 3 to win/place and then key the 3 over/under the “all button.”
5th: 11-10-4/12-2/7-5/9-8…Another outside post candidate here with Ravens Reflection (11). Has speed to burst on the scene quickly. Drops to the bargain bin after a near-miss 2nd here against tougher last time out. They will have to come and catch here. Niigon’s Glory (10) has done a bit of traveling already this year — having run at the Fair Grounds, Houston and Will Rogers. In 5 starts since Jan. 1, he has a win, a second and 3 thirds. Consistent sort figures here, too. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 12-2 in a smaller unit.
6th: 11-9/5-10-1-(13)/6-8/4-7-(14)/3-2…The #11 appears to be my magic number today. I go with another one of them in this spot — Sweet Carli (11). This one comes from the barn of Brad Cox, as well, and looks to be primed for this occasion. Ran a solid 3rd here on April 5 over a muddy track. Returns as a beaten favorite and the barn hits with .30% of those. Worked very well here on April 17. Gets a new rider who likes to gate ride, and this one has plenty of early speed. My choice. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 11 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 6-5-4/8-7/10-12-3-(13)/1-2-11…Madison Way (6) has raced here 3 times previously. Has 2 wins and a third. Now, drops into this spot off a 3rd last time out against tougher. Has a very nice stalking style and the rider has won with .17% over the last 12 outs for this barn. Shot. Final Form (5) is the ML favorite and should be a tough out, too. Comes in off a win last time out for a barn that is just beginning to heat up a bit. Trainer hits with .24% of those making the 2nd start off a layup, and with 1 of 2 that drops off a victory last time out. Has the speed to catch. True Castle (4) was claimed last time out and moves up a notch in the pecking order. Has 2 straight wins and look for a hat trick today. Barn hits with .16% on the first try after a claim purchase and this one picks up a super hot rider in the irons. Chance. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
8th: 3-11/4-8-12-913)/5-6/2-(14)…Lil Miss Moppet (3) really ran a winning race here last time out, before being caught right on the wire. Daughter of Uncle Mo is out of a Stakes-placed dam and this one cost $400,000 to purchase as a 2YO. Has the looks, obviously. May be ready for more after a wake-up call last time out. Speed to go early. Of course I have to throw in Tipsy Gal (11) into the mix. She is another #11 today. This one has run two nice 3rds in a row to start the career and this barn is known for bringing them along slowly. This 3YO is a homebred and should be ready to make that winner’s circle soon. Look at the work here on April 21. Scorch. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box those two strongly in the exacta. I key the 3-11 over/under the 4-8-12-9-13 in two smaller units.
9th: 11-1/3-6/(13)-(14)/12-4-5/9-2/7-10-8…How about another #11 to start off this sequence? Seriously. If you are a numbers player, then key the 11s today. Edgeway (11) looks much the best in this spot, on paper. Ran a super 3rd to Kimari in the Purple Mountain Stakes last time out. Was in a pace battle throughout that one. Tired a bit at the end over the slop. Catches a fast track today and that may be the difference. Look out. She’s quick. Wasabi Girl (1) is my Upset Special of the Day. She is 15-1 in the ML and also ran in the Purple Mountain. Ran 4th behind our top pick here. in 7 career starts, this one has a 2-2-2 record for trainer Steve Asmussen — who has certainly turned hot in the last couple of weeks after a long cold spell. This one may be the stalker and closer today. I bet the 11-1 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 11-1 over/under the 3-6-13-14-12-4-5 in two smaller units.
10th: 5-8-12/10-6-2-1/4-11-(13)/3-9-7…Wide open affair to end the day, and I searched long and hard on this one. I give the edge to Inthemidstofbiz (5). This one has run two nice 2nds here in a row. Has a win and those two runner-up finishes in 4 starts here, to date. Has speed. Has a chance. Shilah Baby (8) is another speed-burner and comes from a barn that certainly knows how to get one to the winner’s circle. Has not raced since Churchill Downs last November. Faced much tougher then. In 10 lifetime tries, has a 1-3-2 record. May be better underneath — especially off the layup. Like the 8-1 ML odds, though. Gold Credit (12) would be a sure thing if she was in the gate stall to her inside (the #11). But this one comes in off two straight 3rds and look at the race two back. Ran up against Sunny Dale in that one. She ran in the Stakes on Saturday. On second thought? I bet the 12-5 across the board (take note), with another dose of 12 in my mess kit. I box the top 3 and then key the 12 over/under the “all button” in here, too. Bullish on the 12.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene