|Day Results||12 / 6-3-6|
|2020 Overall 379||379 / 132-128-150|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.83%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.06%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –236-379||62.27%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 180-291||61.86%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 104-291||35.74%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 44-11-11-8||25.00% Win / 68.18% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 54-15-13-9||27.78% Win / 68.52% ITM|
(We were toasty warm on Saturday, and utilizing “best practices,” too. / Selfie)
We are back for a new week of racing action at the beautiful Oaklawn Park & Casino. (We are not on location, like the rest of the world. But it just feels good to write it. And, we will be watching and wagering remotely — thanks be to God for the technology of today.)
We are hoping to pick right up where we left off on Saturday, when we nabbed 6 winners out of the 12 races carded. We will take another 6 winners on Thursday, if we can find the left over Easter eggs in our handicapping hunt.
Here’s a look at our picks. Hope you are well, safe and practicing social distancing. And, we hope that our top picks practice social distancing, as well, by running away from their closest competitors by a minimum of 6 feet.
Weather Report for Hot Springs on Thursday: Sunny & High of 69. Fast Track.
1st: 4-5/8-7/6-2/1…Getaloadofthis (4) will be making the first start of his career for one of the hottest trainers on the ground. In 187 starts this meet, the barn has a 47-23-29 record — which amounts to a .25% win clip. This one has not raced since last December and over the AW surface at Golden Gate. Has been working good for the 2020 debut. Move here on April 10 was solid. Barn hits with .24% of those making the debut, too. Never has won over a fast track, though. Question does exist. Cabot (5) drops considerably from a major allowance level event to the claiming ranks for the first time. Barn hits with .21% of those. Ran OK in the 2020 debut at the higher level. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up, as well. This one cost $400,000 as a yearling. Could be tough at this level. I bet the 5 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 4-5 in the exacta. I will key the 4-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 3/9-8/5-11-2-4/1-7…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Cold Smoke (3). This 3YO son of Tapiture is coming off a race last time out when he was 2nd at the $30,000 price tag and he was claimed. Will be making the first start for a top barn and has the right style to stalk and pounce here. Barn hits with .24% of those making the first start after a claim purchase. Dam of this one was a Stakes-placed winner. Looks solid for me. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas.
3rd: 4-5-3/1A-1/2-8-7/6…Pat Daddy (4) has raced over this track on five previous occasions. Has a record of 3-1-1 in those events. On a fast main track, this one is 4-1-1 in 8 starts. Gets a new rider for this one today, and the jockey has won with .13% of the last 16 starters for this barn. Looks good right now. Top Brass (5) nearly won here on March 19. Moves up a click in the claiming ranks for this one. Will be coming late and has enough kick with a good trip. Trainer has a 4-0-1 record here over the last 10 starts. Hot. Rockshaw (3) was claimed last time out for $20,000. Moves up to the $32,000 level here. Barn hits with only .08% of those making the initial start after a claim purchase. Has 3 wins in 10 starts here. Barn hits with .26% of those that won the last time out, but this horse has not done that. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 3-1A-1-2-8-8 in two smaller units.
4th: 1-5/2-6-9/8-4-10/7-3…Laddie Boy (1) has two seconds in the two previous runs here. Ran well over the mud here on Feb. 13. Been off since. Works have been spot on, though. Look at the move here on March 27. Wow move. Rider has a 4-5-1 record over the last week and has been as good as anybody on the grounds. Looks solid here. Zanesville (5) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 5YO son of Tiznow will be running as a gelding for the first time and is coming off an extended layup since last August. Has Stakes experience in the past and now drops to a career low price tag. Barn hits with .24% of those making the first start in the claiming ranks. Will have to negotiate through traffic late, but could be up for a big one here. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units in the exactas.
5th: 10-6/1-12/11-4-2/9-3…Souixper Charger (10) ran very well here over a muddy track on March 14. Has a win over a fast track here in January of 2019. Looks to have found a nice groove and I love the work here on April 9. Looks ready and gets a hot rider up in the irons, too. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .25% of those kind. Looks solid to me. Lieutenant Powell (6) has been running against open company for much of his career. Has held his own, too. Shifted over to the Arkansas-bred races for the last two and looked like a potential winner two starts ago. Top rider returns to the irons. In 8 starts here, has a 1-2-3 record. Should be close at the wire. I bet the 10-6 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 10-6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
6th: 2-9-7/10-8/1-6-5…Blushing Bella (2) could be a solid and square price in this spot for a hot barn operation. Ran in an Arkansas-bred only Stakes event last time out. Tired at the end of that one, but both the place and show horses returned to win the next time out. Has faced open company with success in the past, too. Gets back to the $8,000 price tag here and the work on April 10 suggests that the 8YO mare is ready and prepped for a good outing. Shaharazad (9) is another from the barn of Robertson Diodoro and has credentials, too. Drops from a $25,000 claimer last time to the $8,000 price today. Barn hits with .37% of those making the drop off the claim purchase. Barn also hits with .33% when dropping this much off the last race, too. Could be a tough out, but needs room in the late going. Daaherachel (7) will make the first start for a new barn operator. Drops in class for this one, too. In 10 starts over a fast dirt surface, this one has an impressive 2-3-2 mark. Should be close at the wire. Has speed and they must come catch. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-9 over/under the 7-10-8-1-6-5 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-2/12/10-8-(2B)/11-4-6/9-5-1-1A…Charlie’sarchangel (7) returns as a beaten favorite from the last time out here on Feb. 17. This barn scores with .29% of those kind, and this one looks to have the stalking style that will fit this spot perfectly. Rider has won with .16% of his 25 mounts for this barn this meet, and this one has hit the board in 11 of 18 career starts. Should love this spot. Frost Or Frippery (2) has not been worse than 2nd in the last 7 starts. Has 2 wins in that mix. In 6 starts here, has 4 wins and 2 seconds. Consistent sort looks well-spotted for this one, too. Barn has been cold this meet. My only hesitation. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-2 over/under the 12-10-8-11-4-6-9 in two smaller versions. I bet another 7-2-12 exacta box, too.
8th: 9/4-10/1-6-(13)/3-5-11-12/2-8…My last Key Play of the Day comes here with Nonna Madeline (9). This 4YO daughter of Candy Ride ships in from Florida for top trainer Todd Pletcher. The barn has not won a race here this meet. Only one second in 4 previous tries. But this gal has been running primarily in Graded Stakes events. Was 4th in the last out, in the G3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes at GP. Lost to a very talented Sally’s Curlin in that heat. If she can get out of the gate and land a stalking position early on, she may run them off their feet late. Will stretch out to the two turns here. First time at a true route. Interesting move, but I think she could just love it. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
9th: 2-12-11/4-9-8-1/1A-10-6/5-7…Today’s finale should be an interesting race and it could be a very profitable one, too. I will get a little bullish on Market King (2), who is listed at 6-1 in the ML. This will be a considerable drop in class, and the 4YO son of Into Mischief has never been offered up for this low a price tag in the career. Could be haltered here, for sure. Ran well last time out here over the slop against much better. In 9 career starts here, he has only 1 win. Does add 3 thirds. But today’s company may be exactly what the doctor ordered. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene