|Day Results||10 / 6-4-2|
|2020 Overall 348||348 / 121-118-135|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.70%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.82%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –217-348||62.36%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 180-291||61.86%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 104-291||35.74%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 44-11-11-8||25.00% Win / 68.18% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 50-14-13-9||28.00% Win / 72.00% ITM|
Great day on Saturday, as we ventured down to Hot Springs on a little virtual tour. Had 6 winners out of the 10 races, and scored exactas here, there and everywhere. There was money to be made. And, we made it.
Now, we will try to extend the win streaks a bit on a Thursday race card. Here’s our picks for today at Oaklawn Park:
1st: 5-8-3/2-4-7-12-(13)/6-10…Collude (5) gets the top nod in the lid-lifter. This 3YO Secret Circle filly is dropping to an all-time low price tag after running a decent 4th here on March 19 against much tougher. Odds-on favorite in that one. Barn hits with .23% of those dropping this much, and with .26% of those returning as a beaten favorite, too. Look for this one to like the company today. Every Single Day (8) comes from the barn of Tom Amoss, who is winning at a .21% clip here this meet. This one has run over the sod in each of the last three outs. Not close to the wire in any of those. Drops considerably and moves back to the dirt today. Should like both of those moves. Rider has hit with half of the 4 starts for this barn over the last 60 days. Don’t rule this one out. I bet the 5-3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 5-3 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-4-1A/7-2/6-8/5-10…Call Me Derby (3) has won two in a row coming into this one and the barn hits with .22% of those trying to repeat the victory in the claiming ranks. Has a 2-1-0 mark in 8 starts here. Interesting the rapid development in 2020. Drexel (4) comes into this one off a very nice work here on April 3. Barn hits with .09% on the third try off a layup, but this one looks really sharp for this effort. Has hit the board in each of the last 4 tries. Big shot. C H Jay (1A) is my preferred part of the entry. Ran well when dropped in against other “state breds” last time out. Has only 2 wins in 25 lifetime tries, but does add 4 seconds and 2 thirds. Underneath for me. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3-4 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-12-(13)/9-1-11-7/5-10/3…Cowboys Dream (8) drops all the way from a high-priced allowance event at Delta Downs to the $8,000 claiming barrel here. Should appreciate that drop. Barn hits with .26% of those making the 3rd start off a layup, and this one did run well in KY last Fall. Look for something more with this class company. Wrath (12) is 10-1 in the ML and should spice up the odds rack with a nice run here. Was claimed last time out for $10,000. Drops to $8,000 for this one. Barn hits with .24% of those on the first race after a purchase. Barn wins with .37% when dropping off a claim. Rider has won with .26% of the last 70 mounts for this operation. Wow. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 8-2-14/12/1-9-10/3-7-6…Tre Lee Divine (8) will make the first start for the new barn operation today, after being claimed last time out for $12,500. Now, this one starts for half that price. Hmmm. Barn wins with .14% of those that drop off the claim. Rider has only 2 wins in 96 starts. Read that again. Wins with .02% this meet. Hmmmm. Dingdingdingding (2) goes for a trainer who has just 1 win in 28 starts this meet. That factors out to a whopping .04% win rate. Does get a huge drop in class for this one. Barn does hit with .33% of those dropping this much in one swoop, and with .21% of those making the 2nd start off a claim. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the rest in two smaller units.
5th: 2-5/1-7-3/11-6-9/4-8-10…I can’t remember the last time I keyed in on a horse ridden by Alex Birzer. After all, his win percentage this meet is .04%. Has 6 wins in 138 mounts. Hmmmm. But this one drops form the MSW ranks to the $20,000 MCL level. Trainer wins with .16% of those making the barn debut and the dam of this one does have 5 winners from 6 starters. Interesting. Hidden Promise (5) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 3YO gelded son of Blame drops another run in the claiming ladder, and has flashed a little talent here in the last two outs. Rider has won with .25% of the 12 mounts for this barn. I bet the 5 — take note — to win/place/show. I box the 2-5 in the exacta and then I key the 2-5 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 4/3-8-2/1-5-7/6…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Artemus Eagle (4). This 3YO son of Wicked Strong will be making the Oaklawn Park debut after running the last four times over the AW at Turfway Park. Go back to the dirt race at KEE in October, though. Ran huge that day. I think he may run huge with a return to the traditional dirt here. Gets a rider who has won with .38% of the last 8 rides for this barn, too. My solid pick. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then I key the 4 over/under the “all button.” I will also key the 4 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units, as well. Like the 4 here. Can you tell?
7th: 10-11-(13)/7-1-4-6/3-12-8/2-9-5…Illusionista (10) will make her first start for the new barn operation today. Shifts from the turf to the dirt, too, and this barn hits with .21% of those that make this surface switch. Gets the meet’s hottest rider in the irons and it just looks good on paper. Gypsy Wind (11) ran OK after a horrendous start in the career debut here on March 13. Made up about 6 lengths from the start to the wire. Was well bet on debut, too. If this one can break just a tiny bit better, then she figures to have a shot in this grouping. Barn hits with .15% of those making the second start, too. Chance. I bet the 10-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 10-11 over/under the numbers in two smaller units.
8th: 1-3-4/2-5/9-7/8-6…I get a good number on Truggle (1) in this bunch of class 3YO&Up colts and geldings. Not “single” good. But “solid” good. But I have a hunch on this one today. I have a hunch he may run off the screen. Last time out here on Feb. 23, this one nearly won. Last the lead at the wire and was nipped by a neck. Has been idle in the afternoons since, but this barn has a knack for getting them ready off the bench. Wins with .21% when away from the gate this long. Love the work pattern, too. Gets a solid rider in the irons. This one won on debut at Belmont last June. Ran huge against Green Light Go in the G2 Saratoga Special over the dirt. I think he runs big again today at a very square price. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
9th: (13)-8-11-6/3-5-10-7/(14)-9-2-1-4…My top pick in today’s finale needs a little help just to get into the race. Shazzy B (13) is parked on the AE List and outside looking in, for the time being. If this 3YO Uncaptured filly gets in? I take a serious whack. Has run 3 straight 2nds to start the career for trainer Brad Cox — who is winning with .23% of his 90 starters here this meet. Gets a fired-up rider in “Smoking Joe” Talamo. Work here on April 4 was spot on, too. My choice. But has to get in. If not, I go to Luminaire (8), whom I think will run a good one today, too. This 3YO daughter of Northern Afleet will make the first start for the new barn operation. Has been facing much, much tougher at the Fair Grounds. Work on March 22 was spot on, and the rider choice is perfect for this one, too. Big shot. I bet the 13-8 across the board and then box the top 3 picks in the exacta. I will key the 13-8 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene