Days Results 10 / 3-2-3
2023 Overall — 714 714 / 244-230-319
Win % of Top Pick 34.17%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 37.02%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 435-714 60.92%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 20-30 66.67%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 12-30 40.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 57-95 60.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 31-95 32.63%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 14/6-4-2 42.86% Win / 85.71% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 1/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 98/44-20-10 44.90% Win / 75.51% ITM

(Stats to be updated from Wednesday, Thursday and Friday)

Here’s our looks at the Pimlico card on this G1 Preakness Stakes Day in Maryland:

4th: 3-4/6//5/1//2…Sir Barton Stakes…This 11/16-mile contest is a real good one, and I will go with a horse I have liked all year long —Tapit’s Conquest (3). This one is 4-1 in the ML and I think could drift higher in the odds department. Ran huge at this distance earlier in the year and was not embarrassed by Angel of Empire in the G2 Risen Star Stakes. May have some long, long distance limitations, for now. But the work on May 13 is spot on and the barn operation is as good as it gets. I’m in here. Arabian Lion (4) comes from the barn of the bewildered Bob Baffert, who lost a disappointing one in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan on Friday. This son of Justify will get Lasix for the first time. Hmmm. And, will be the odds-on favorite after a huge run in the G3 Lexington Stakes. Could not find the will to win that day. I’m betting against here. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 4-6 in the exactas. I will box the 3-6 in a stern one, too. 

5th: 6-9/7-12-5/10-2/3/4-8…This is a 11/16-mile allowance test over the turf and will squeeze in-between the litany of Stakes events. I go with Tequilera (6). This 4YO filly has hit the board in the last 6 and is conditioned by one of the best in the game. Man never sends one out that is not ready to fire. Gets a huge rider switch, in my mind, and could pop here. Lifelovenlaughter (9) is a nice long-shot possibility. This one goes for a top trainer, too, and gets a rider switch. Will be coming and has some talent. Bred for the grass, through and through. Not dismiss at a price. I bert the 6-9 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 7-12-5-10-2-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 5-1-2/3-7/6//4…G3 Chick Lang Stakes…This is a 6-furlong sprint test for the 3YOs and I saddle up with Super Chow (5). This is a talented son of Lord Nelson and another nice runner in the barn of Jorge Delgado. Has won a race here in the past and comes in off a huge win in the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park in mid-March. Has speed to burn and one to catch. Talent here. Very talented. Havnameltdown (1) must have been named after his notorious trainer following the Medina Spirit debacle. Has a ton of speed, too, and ships back from Saudi Arabia after a near-miss 2nd there at a mile. Should like this distance and gets a new rider for the first time. Interesting. Ryvit (2) is a talented one, too. Has won 3 in a row and would be no shocker. May benefit from a speed dual if the first two lock it up early and often. I use. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 5-2 in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 1-3-7 in two smaller units. 

7th: 1-5-7/4/2-6/3…G3 Gallorette Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile turf test for the fillies and mares and I go with the rail bird — Whitebeam (1). This one moves up in class and must have her running shoes on, but goes for a top turf trainer and should love the rider switch. Could be solid odds here and one of the big improve. Vergara (5) goes for a top turf trainer, too, and comes in off a near miss in the G2 Sands Point. Has the experience edge and may have the class edge, as well. We shall see. Rider can fall asleep in the big ones and bury the steed inside. If the filly can overcome that? Nice one. Princess Theorem (7) is on the improve and could pop a big one here. Has hit the board in each of the last 3 and rates a chance. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-4-7/2/3-5/6…G3 Dinner Party Stakes…This is a 11/8-mile grass test for the “olders” and I go back to the rail with Atone (1), who just may atone for a terrible race in the last outing. Ran a disappointing and tiring 9th and last in the G2 Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Before that? Won two in a row — including the G1 Pegasus World cup Turf Invitational. Here’s hoping that his one just didn’t like the rugged turf in New Orleans. Atone can atone. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller units. 

9th: 6-3-2/9-5-1/4-7//8/10…Skipat Stakes…This is a 6-furlong dirt sprint for the older fillies and mares and I give the edge to my “Upset of the Day.” I saddle up with Gunning (6), who is listed at 6-1 in the Brisnet. com ML. I love this one. Has a win at the distance and is coming in off a very nice 2nd in a muddy Stakes event at Oaklawn Park. Gets a huge rider switch here and may mow them down late. I’m the Boss of Me (3) ships in from the Southwest and Arkansas, too. Has a 4-2-4 record in 13 tries at this distance. But could be overbite with Irad Ortiz, Jr. taking the reins. Beguine (2) could run a huge one. Like the last two and the rider is coming off a huge win a couple of weeks ago. You may have heard of him. I bet the 6-2 across the board and double down on the 6. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 3-9-5-1-4-7 in two smaller units. 

10th: 3-1/13/8-10/9-11/6-12//5-7/4…Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes…This is a 5-furlong sprint over the sod and I go with Artemus Citylimits (3). This 6YO gelding has seen the wars and has a 1-1-1 mark in 6 tries at the specialty distance. Never raced here before, but should improved greatly off the 2023 debut at KEE. Has talent and speed. Needs to find it again. Nothing Better (1) has a race over this sod and has a 5-1-2 mark in 11 tries at this distance. Local rider up. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 2 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 13-8-10-9-11 in two smaller units. 

11th: 7-8/5-10-2/4//1/3-9/6…Maryland Sprint Stakes…This is a 6-furlong test over the main dirt surface and I go with Nakatomi (7). This one goes for trainer Wesley Ward, who has won with .32% of the last 139 starters. But in Graded Stakes? He has won with a whopping .23% in the last 98 tries. Gets a top rider here and should love this group. My pick. Straight No Chaser (8) ships in after a huge win at Oaklawn Park. Ran up against my top pick in the G1 Malibu at Santa Anita last December. Top pick edged him. May do it again. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-8 in the exactas. I will key the 7-8 over/under the 5-10-2-4 in two smaller units. 

12: 9/8-1//3-7/2-5/4/6…James W. Murphy Stakes…This is a 1-mile turf event and I go with the first “Key Play of the Day” — Nagirroc (9). This 3YO Lea colt comes in with a 2-2-2 record in 6 career starts and for a top turf trainer. Ran huge in the G3 Transylvania at KEE last time out. Beaten favorite. Barn wins with .19% of the last 63 to get blinkers for the first time, too. Like this one a lot. I bet the 9 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 8-1 in the exactas. More on the top end than the bottom. 

13th: 3/5-6-7/1//4/2…G1 Preakness Stakes…The big race of the day looks like a ceremony to crown the 2nd jewel in this Triple Crown on the Kentucky Derby winner — Mage (3). This one has run two great ones in a row and no reason to believe that he can’t make it a third. Love the way he looks, acts, feels and jumps into the bridle. Still very lightly raced and getting better. I look for a monster performance. Red Route One (5) is a deep closer and may make a run late to get 2nd money. Has the experience edge, to be sure. Perform (6) ships in for a top HOF trainer and looks to be on the huge improve. Has not faced these types, yet. Big chance to move up after 2 wins in a row against lesser. Time to pull the big one. I bet the 3 to win/place and then key the 3 over/under the 5-6-7-1 in the exactas. I box the 3-6 in a power grouping, too. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene