Day Results 9-6-3-5
2019 Overall 416 416/158-162-207
Win % of Top Pick 37.98%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 42.23%
2019 Top Pick in the Money –292 of 416 70.19%
Top Selection ITM / FG Nov-Mar 421-595 70.76%
Top Selection Win / FG Nov-Mar 235-595 39.50%
“Key Horses” @ FG Nov-Mar 124-52-24-15 41.94%
“Key Horses” in 2019 96-36-18-12 37.50%

The last week of racing for this mammoth meet begins on Wednesday, down in the Cajun Country of New Orleans. Nine-race card lined up for your betting pleasure, and here’s a closer look:

1st: 5-1-2/7-3/4…The first event of the day is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the main track for the LA-breds fillies and mares only. I go to Dale’s Lil Sis (5), who is coming off a tough start over the wet-fast track at Delta Downs last time out. That was against open company, though, and if you glance back a bit, you will see she can hold her own against other State-breds. Has a third in only previous start here and the barn hits with .15% of those getting this type of significant class drop. Cherry Twist (1) will draw the rail and the post is winning at a .27% rate at this short distance. This filly is trained by a guy who hits with .19% on the second try off a layup, and this one has hit the board in each of the last two. Gets a top rider in the irons. Glitz N Glam (2) was claimed for $4,000 last time out when racing at Delta. Barn hits with .20% of the first ask after the purchase. Gets a nice rider switch for this one and she does have speed to burn up the early g going. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

2nd: 9-4-8/1-(10)/7…This is the first grass race of the day, and it will be contested at the 5.5-furlong sprint distance. I will go to the outside to tab my top selection in Oh Bette (9). This 4YO Awesome Again filly is coming off a third place finish in the first claiming event of her life. Was 6 wide into the first turn in that one and will get a more experienced hand at the wheel today. Shortens up in distance, too, and that should help this fast gal. Barn hits with .26% of those racing in the MCL ranks. Touch of Gray (4) is dropping down in class to a level that she excelled at last summer at Ellis Park. On July 13, she ran second over the dirt at the Pea Patch. Gets the switch to the turf today, and the barn hits with .10% of those surface switchers. Dam of this one was Stakes placed  and has thrown a turf winner. May find a home today. Strong Patriot (8) will be making her second career start and first race since last September. Gets a new track surface and a huge drop in class. Barn hits with .20% of those returning from this kind of a layup, and the words have been OK for the return. Trainer hits with .16% of those trying grass for the first time, too. Gets the meet’s top rider up. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller versions.

3rd: 1-2/4-5-6…This race is a bargain bin feature for the LA-breds going a flat mile over the main track. Pinch Assault (1) ran huge the last time out to nearly win this exacta same race. Beaten a nose that day. Has two seconds and a third in the last 3 tries and has a 0-3-1 record in 5 outs here. Top dirt rider as the assignment. Maddy’s Pro (2) gets a huge class drop for this one, and the barn is just OK with those types in the past. In 13 starts here, though, this 5YO has a 2-3-4 record. Always around the rim at the finish line. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-2 in one exacta.

4th: 6-8-7-(16)/4-5/(15)-1-2-3-9…The second turf race of the day is another 5.5-furlong speciality for the LA-breds. Appears to be a wide-open affair, but I will side with owner Maggi Moss and her expert trainer Tom Amoss in this spot. Asongforyou (6) is 9-2 odds in the ML, and that could be a blessing. This one won on debut against open company at Indy Grand back in October. Came back to run OK as a beaten favorite here on Nov. 15. Off since then, but training solid for the return. Interesting rider choice, but I land here. Boston Repo (8) is a 3YO gelding who has never missed the board in 4 lifetime starts to date. Comes off a solid third to a horse that is imposing and the winner of the race two back has already returned to win again. Gets a top rider for a red hot barn, which has a .34% win rate in 76 starters this meet. I can’t leave out here. Boston Bind (7) gets the services of James Graham in this spot. Broke the maiden last time out and the barn hits with .12% of those moving up to face winners for the first time. This will be a switch to the grass, and the barn hits with a meager .03% of those trying the sod for the first time. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

5th: 4/7/6-3/2-5-1…The first Key Play of the Day comes right here with Twirling Liz (4). No secrets here. Listed at 4-5 odds in the ML. Comes into this one off a nice second against much tougher. Top rider sticks for the meet’s top barn. Jockey has teamed up to go 4-3-0 in the last 13 starts for this operation. And, sticks a nice work on Jan. 30 here. Adds up for me. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the 7-6-3. I slam the 4-7 here.

6th: 1-9-2/6-4-3-5/7-8…The third grass event of the day, and this will be contested at the flat, 1-mile distance. I will go to the rail and Divine Quality (1). This 4YO filly is trained by my good friend Tom Proctor, who has only one win in 31 tries this meet. Over due. But this one ran well here before tiring late in a 11/16-mile event last time out. Cut back in distance should help and she does have two 3rd place finishes in the two previous runs over this course. Barn hits with .15% of those dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time — ever. Russian Mafia (9) is 8-1 ML odds and could spice up the tote board just a bit. Has not been out since late January, but the barn hits with .11% of those returning off a short break. Ran a nice second last time out at this same level. Love the work on March 8. Nice. In Charge Annie (2) should be the one to beat on the odds board by PT. Broke the maiden last time out when moved up by the stewards. But in 8 lifetime starts, she has a 1-1-5 record. On the grass, she has a nice second in the only appearance. Dam of this one is by Ghostzapper and was Stakes placed. All there. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

7th: 3-6-7/2-5/4-1…Rubus (3) was cut out to be a real good one. Won on debut at Keeneland in Oct. 2017. Then jumped right into a Stakes event at Churchill Downs. Has faced some tough customers in the past, for sure. Looks to be getting a little bit of his confidence back now after a long time between drinks of water. In 12 career starts, he has the 1 win, but 3 seconds and 2 thirds. Ran a nice second over the slop here on Feb. 21. If he can improve a pinch off that, he could be tough here today. California Swing (6) and Sailing Solo (7) both have a shot. The former has hit the board in each of the last two and 3 of the past 4 tries. Has a win and a third in only 2 tries here. The latter comes from an expert barn and is moving up to face winners for the first time after a hard fought win here on Dec. 29. Barn hits with .11% moving up the pecking order. Top jock stays aboard. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

8th: 4-7/5-9-8/1-6-2…A 5.5-furlong turf sprint highlights the card today, and I will go with Cape Rosso (4). This 6YO gelding broke the maiden here last time out when getting this distance for only the second time. Looked mighty impressive in that performance — when facing open company. Since losing the blinkers two back, he has been salty and the barn knows how to find the winner’s circle. When moving up to face winners for the first time, the trainer scores .22% of the time. Bam Bam Bryan (7) ran over a yielding track last time out and it doesn’t look like he necessarily appreciated the soft going. When racing over the firm ground three back and going longer, he was second by a nose. Has raced this distance only once, and will need to find more early lick. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under the 7-5-9-8.

9th: 7-9/4-11-(14)/6-10-(13)-8-2-3…The last race of the day is for the LA-breds only and those that have not ever won a race. Man Camp (7) ran a really nice one last time out here and is winning at a .19% clip in 53 starts here this meet. In 7 career outs, he has 3 seconds to show for the efforts. Could move up off the last outing, although he appears to be a bit inconsistent. Adrenaline (9) returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn scores with .21% of those. Has hit the board in 4 of 5 lifetime tries and will get a huge rider switch today. First time in the big leagues, though, and will need to step it up when facing these kind today. I bet the 9 (take note) to win/place/show and then box the 7-9 in one exacta. I will key the 7-9 over the 4-11-(14)-6-10 in two smaller versions.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene