|Day Results||8 / 3-3-1|
|2020 Overall 1756||1756 / 626-605-766|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.65%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.91%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,137-1,756||64.75%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 55-90||61.11%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 35-90||38.89%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 19-7-0-2||36.84% Win / 47.37% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 250-91-48-34||36.40% Win / 69.20% ITM|
It’s the day after Christmas and some of us will begin to return to our regular routines. We will be at The Louisville Thoroughbred Society today to watch the Kentucky – Louisville basketball game and play a few races. We are doing some “Special Events” on a very limited basis until we open in March of 2021. We this is a very “Special Event.” Even in 2021.
So, we will be watching the basketball game and watching some races. And, we hope to be watching a new year rapidly approaching. One that is less troublesome and less hateful in 2021. One that is less pandemic and less hurtful. One that is less violent and less bitter. One is that is more fun and more spiritual. One is that more healthy and more healing. One that is more peaceful and more sweet.
Let’s get it going on Saturday. Let’s get it rolling at Turfway Park.
Here’s a look at our picks:
1st: 10-3/8-11-12/(14)-(13)-9-6-5-4/2-1-7…Can’t Say No (10) comes from the barn of Larry Rivelli, who has won with .28% of 301 starters this year and with .20% of the first 5 runners over the “new and improved” Turfway Tapeta this Holiday Meet. This one was 4th here at the $8,000 level on Dec. 9. Now falls to the bargain bin for this encounter. Barn wins with .36% over the AW surfaces, and a clean run here should produce a winner, winner, Christmas-day-after dinner. Snaggletooth (3) was claimed last time out for the $8,000 price tag and now drops to the $5,000 for the next outing. Need a bigger truck? Barn wins with .17% when switching to the AW and this one won at CD on Nov. 8 against tougher. A return to that performance and this one could be surging in the late going. I can toss the last outing. Bumped repeatedly in that affair. Big Threat. I bet the 10-3 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 10-3 over/under the 9-11-12-14-13-9-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 12-2-(1A)-(2B)/9-8-11-4/5-7/6-1…Town Agenda (12) nearly won at this level last time out when making the Tapeta debut here on Dec. 10. Came from the back to be 2nd, despite a troubled trip. Gets a new rider for this one and the barn wins with .16% when routing for the first time. Looks well-spotted. Striktortapit (1A) or Artie’s Lady (2B) both have a legit chance here, but they have to draw in from the AE List to do so. If they make the gate? I have to make the bet. Hemp Heaven (2) is a first timer for a barn that has gone 4-2-1 in 16 starts here this Holiday meet. Gets a rider who has won with .30% of the last 23 mounts for this trainer, and the dam of this one has 2 winners from 2 starters. Worth a shot here, too. Beat Duke (9) was a contender for awhile in the last outing. Then backpedalled late. Don’t really like this one much, but like him better than the rest. Make sense? I bet the 12-2 across the board and then box the top three in the exacta. If the 1A or 2B get in? I bump up the entries into the top spot.
3rd: (14)-2-(13)-10/12-1/7-9/6-5…Surge Pricing (14) could be, would be my first Longshot Special of the Night if the 4YO son of Animal Kingdom draws in from the AE List. Could improve with the cutback in the distance, and should love, love, love the AW. Look at the sire. Won over the old Turfway AW before going on to capture the KY Derby. Trainer is having a solid meet and the rookie rider gets a 7-pound allowance. I like. Midnight Swap (2) gets a huge rider switch for this one and plummets to the bin for this event. Will make the first start for the new barn operation, who wins with half of those making the barn debut. Should fit nicely with this group. Alpha Boy (10) could be another Longshot Special of the Night to consider. This one is 15-1 in the Brisnet.com ML and ran a nice one at Hawthorne in the last outing. In 17 previous tries over an AW surface? Has a 3-1-5 mark. That’s good enough here. I bet the 14-2-10 across the board, if they all get in. I box those 3 in the exactas. I then key the top 2 numbers over/under the 12-1-7-9-6 in two smaller.
4th: 7-2/8-5-1-6/4-(14)-8-(13)-12…Aunt Irene (7) ships in from the warmer climate for this run over the AW for the first time. New trainer is off to a good start at the helm. Has won with 2 of the first 8 to get the girth. Should fit nicely against these types with the drop, if the 4YO filly can handle the cold. Brrrr. Rider is 1-for-37 this meet. Brrrr II. Orbette (2) will get my money in this spot. The barn is red hot and has gone 6-3-1 in the last 14 days. Over this meet, the trainer is 6-3-1 in 17 starts — which works out to a .35% win percentage. Rider returns for the class dump. My pick. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I go sternly. I key the 7-2 over/under the 8-5-1-6-4-14 in two smaller units.
5th: 12-6/2-3-4-1/(13)-(14)/8-11-7/5-10-4…What a nice field assembled for this MSW event, for the 2YO fillies. I go to the outside and saddle up with Hybrid Eclipse (12). This one ran a huge 2nd last time out. Beat just a head and had the lead late in the proceedings. Trainer is weak on the win percentage this year (8% in 71 starts), but has put together some stout babies from the barn. This one should be tough if she can duplicate the last performance. American Bourbon (6) travels down from Canada to take on these tonight. Should not be a weather issue with his transition. Works are spot on. And, this one shows a nice “Z Pattern” in the first two starts. Closed in the opener. Flashed speed in the 2nd. Fit now? I bet the 12-6 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 12-6 over/under the 2-3-4-1-13-14-8 in two smaller units.
6th: 12-2/3-7-9/11/8-5…Jimmy Joe (12) gets my nod in this spot. Trainer is having a super meet, winning 3 of the first 8 starters for a .38% win rate. Claimed this one two starts ago. Ran a distant 3rd last time out against much, much, much tougher. Runner-up in that affair came right back to win. Now, this one goes to the basement. That may be a tough drop, but the barn wins with .28% of those making the 2nd start and with .20% own the 2nd outing off the claim. Hmmm. Uncle Gregory (2) has been facing tougher, too, and should appreciate this class drop. Barn wins with .15% when going from a route to a sprint, and the new apprentice in the irons has two seconds in the first 8 starts here. Still looking for the first career win. Maybe. I bet the 12-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 12-2 over under all the other numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 5-8/9/10-7-3-11/2-1-6…Hoof Prince (5) drops from the $50,000 level to the $30,00 ranks today for a top barn operation that is starting to heat up some at the “new and improved” Turfway Park. This one won at this level against much tougher at CD on Oct. 28. Gets a top rider, who is winning at a .31% clip here this meet. Should be the speed and the one to catch. Barn wins with .24% when returning with a beaten favorite, and with .28% of those going from the dirt to the AW. Aye Aye Sir (8) an in a Stakes the last three times for a top barn operation, which is winning at a .25% rate this meet. Drops to the $30,000 tag here, and should be a real threat. Works coming in are nice, and the rider has won with .30% of the last 23 mounts for this barn, too. Barn wins with .29% when dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and with .33% when going turf to AW. Chance. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box those two sternly. I will box the top 3 numbers in one exacta, too. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 9-10-7-3-11 in two smaller units.
8th: 10-4-6/(13)-(14)/11-12-9…Count Your Pennies (10) gets my top number in this late-night finale. This 3YO gelded son of Super Saver ran a nice 2nd against much tougher last time out at CD on Nov. 29. Has some minor traffic issues or may have won that one. In the first 11 starts, does have 2 seconds and 3 thirds. Best of the group, IMO. Conquistador Show (4) ran a solid third here on Dec. 10. That was first try over the AW and should improve tonight. Will likely come from a stalking spot and gets a top rider here for the effort. Chance. Fat Account (6) came with a late surge from near last to almost first here on Dec. 10. That was at odds of 21-to-1. Barn wins with .16% in the 2nd start off the layup and with .18% when going from a sprint to a route, too. Rider is heating up and is a top man for this job every year. I bet the 10-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the two on the AE List, if they get in. If not, then I key the top 3 over/under the 11-12 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene