|Day Results||8 / 4-1-4|
|2020 Overall 1716||1716 / 611-588-751|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.61%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.88%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,112-1,716||64.80%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 30-50||60.00%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 20-50||40|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 8-3-0-1||37.50% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 239-87-48-33||36.40% Win / 70.29%|
A decent night at Turfway Park on Thursday. Hung out with a group of prospective Members and Guests at the Louisville Thoroughbred Society.
It was a blast.
Watched a few races. Drank a few glasses of saltwater grapefruit rum. OK, maybe more than a few. This stuff was good.
Told a few stories. Laughed at a few jokes. Broke bread with some new friends, and visited with some old ones.
It was a blast.
When it was all said and done, too, we picked up about 7 new members and won about 4 races. We scored three exactas that paid $26.30, $7.80 and $54.50 for each $1 played.
It was a blast.
Here’s hoping for more tonight. A little late start, but here are our quick picks for Turfway Friday:
1st: 1/4-8/9-7/3…Unapologetic Me (1) gets the first Key Play of the Night. This 4YO daughter of Trappe Shot drops to a career low price tag tonight for a barn that is off to a chilly start to the Holiday Meet. Trainer just won the Trainer’s Title at Churchill Downs in the Fall, and is certain to turn these results around very soon, but still off to a 1-for-12 start. Jockey is red hot, sporting a 6-2-2 record in the last 18 mounts. Should be a tough out from a stalking position here. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 4-8.
2nd: 8/5/9-(14)-6-2-1…Miss Paco Lemon (8) is our second Key Play of the Night. This 3YO daughter of Lemon Drop Kid goes from a MSW event to the bargain bin for a trainer that wins with .28% when making this drop; with .20% when adding the blinkers for the first time; and with .24% when away from the starting gate this long. Work on Nov. 28 was spot on. This one is likely a popular chick in the claim box tonight. I bet. I go with a win/place/show bet on the 8. I key the 8 over/under the 5 sternly. I key the 8 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-4-10/6-7/1-8/5/2…Dust Devil (3) was claimed for $40,000 last time out in October, and now shows up for $30,000 tonight. Barn wins with .16% on the first try after a purchase, and with .18% on the first attempt at a route distance. Work on Dec. 5 was good enough to put this one in the race. Will be coming late with a red-hot rider who is winning at a .28% clip this meet. Alphalfa (4) has run two seconds in a row and in 4 tries over an AW track, this one has 3 seconds and a third. Gets a traditional top rider here, and the barn wins with .20% in the claiming ranks. Chance. Surf and Turf (10) drops from a high-priced allowance event at KEE last time out. Had an eventful trip that day. That was the first start for the new barn operation. Barn wins with .11% when dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. Work on Nov. 25 at KEE was spot on. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the entire list of numbers in two smaller units.
4th: 7-5/2-9-10-4-6/1…Miss Eau de Vie (7) broke the maiden last time out when racing at KEE in October. Came from a stalking position to finish off the deal at the wire. Out of a Stakes-placed dam. Barn wins with .19% when moving up to face winners for the first time. Gets a rider who is winning at a .37% clip right now. All adds up for me. Roll Up Mo Money (5) has not raced since finishing 5th behind Princess Noor in the G1 Del Mar Debutante. Gets a new barn leader for this one, and will route for the first time. Sharp work on Dec. 5. One to beat. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box those two sternly in one exacta. I will key the 7-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
5th:7-8-4/12-9-6/3-11…This MSW event is a good one and wide open, to boot. I will give the slight edge to The Predicament (7). This 2YO gelded son of Gemologist has been running very consistently over the AW surface at Presque Isle — compiling a mark of 4 seconds and a third in the first 5 starts. Gets a new rider tonight and will made a serious run again. Good enough? Good question. Barakat (8) is our first Longshot Special of the Night. This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML and ran 8th on debut at Churchill Downs in November. And, was beaten 21 lengths. But? This one was bet down to the 2-1 favorite in the debut and really spit the bit half way through that one. Returns as a beaten favorite for a barn that wins with .26% of those kind. The words are really solid and the new surface could help this one, too. Look out here. My pick, though? Love me some Longlshot Special of the Night II: Point Me By (4). This 2O son of Point of Entry is working lights out at Churchill Downs. Gets a rider who has won for this barn. And, the dam of this one has a winner from 2 starters. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 7-12-9-6-3-11 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-1-3/5-6-10-11/(13)-(14)/2-8-7…Tale of Fame (4) gets a new trainer for tonight, and the barn wins with only .05% of the newcomers. Hmmm. but this one has a nice 2-2-1 mark in 9 previous runs here over a different AW surface. Has hit the board in the last 4 outings and 6 of the last 7. Consistent sort. Red Cat (1) drops from a high-class allowance at Presque Isle to the $12,500 claiming tag here. Gets a new trainer, who wins with .36% of the first timers. Work at High Point was spot on. Could help with a return to the sprint distance. At this distance, has a 3-3-2 mark in 11 tries. Ed’s Rocket (3) spit the bit in the last outing, but was a big winner over the AW two races back. Trainer wins with .22% when shipping in and with .24% in the claiming ranks. Chance here. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under th e3-5-6-10-11 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-12/(13)-8-5/3-10-(14)-6/1-11-4…Jumper (7) is another from the barn of Tommy Drury, one of the best young trainers in the game. The barn wins with .14% of those switching from the dirt over to the AW surface. This one has a good work on Dec. 5 and the rider is starting to heat up a bit, too. Last two outings are both good enough and has a solid AW pedigree, to boot. My pick. Bama Breeze (12) has not been seen since running 7th in a $750,000 Stakes at KY Downs in the last outing. That came in mid-September. Before that, ran a huge 2nd in the Audubon Stakes at Churchill Downs in June. Field Pass beat him that day by a length. Anything close to that effort? Game over. I bet the 7-12 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 7-12 over/under the 13-8-5-3-10-14-6 in two smaller units.
8th: 7-11-1/(13)-(14)-8-5/2…Awesome Wok N Roll (7) gets the strong nod in the night’s finale. This 4YO gelded son of Awesome Again cost a hefty $650,000 at the 2018 OBS-March 2YO Sale. Has managed to earn $35,000 of that investment back to date. Now, this one shows up for the $30,000 price tag. Barn wins with .10% dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Has raced twice this year. Close in each. But still not close enough. Should be tough with this drop. Samson Lee (11) just ran 2nd for the barn of Tommy Drury. Bounces up a couple of runs tonight, but the barn is that good. Wins at a .23% clip when routing for the 2nd time. Wins with .21% in the MCL ranks. Love the odds here, too. Big shot for me. Englander (1) has run two straight 4ths at this level. Returns as a beaten favorite tonight, and the barn wins with .29% of those — and that’s with a sample size of 150 runners. Interesting rider choice. Be watching this jockey, who I do not know. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will box the 7-11 in another stern exacta, and then key the 7-11 over/under the 1-13-14-8-5-2 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene