|2019 Overall 1,489||1,489/519-540-658|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.86%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.43%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –976 of 1,489||65.55%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 29-48||60.42%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 16-48||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 3-1-0-0||33.33|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 218-84-43-22||38.53% Win / 68.35% ITM|
It’s Friday the 13th. What better day than to have a little good luck, right?
We are going swinging. For the fences.
Here’s a look at our selections for Turfway on Friday. The 13th. Lucky. Friday. The. 13th.
1st: 2-5/7-1-8/10-3-11…Aquadini (2) is a 3YO gelded son of Bernardini and is coming off a nice win at Churchill Downs on Nov. 23. The cutback to the sprint distance seemed to assist this front-running type. Claimed out of that one by a trainer who has a win in only previous try here this meet. Barn hits with .13% of those that make the first start off the purchase. Seems to fit with these nicely. My first Key Play of the Day and Upset of the Day all wrapped into one tidy Christmas package. I will be the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-5 in one sturdy exacta. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 7-1-8-10 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 3-9-7/4-8/2-1…Starof Distinction (3) moves to KY from the all-weather surface up in PA and goes to a new barn for the first time tonight. Trainer hits with .11% of those making the barn debut, and this one has hit the board in 3 of the last 4 outs. In those 4 tries over the all-weather surface, she has a 1-1-1 mark. Gets a rider that I know little about. But has a shot at 10-1 in the ML here. Blazing Diamond (9) is the 5-2 ML choice and will be dropping in class for this one. Rider off to a good start with a 3-1-6 record over the first 17 starts. Was off from racing from 2017 to this year. Has 2 wins in 7 starts this season. Chance. Appealing Julia (7) will drop in class and make her first start since July. This barn scores with .11% of those returning from that kind of a layup. Like the work here on Nov. 8. Veteran rider knows his way around a track. Barn hits with .18% on the all-weather. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 3-7 over/under the 9-4-8-2-1 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 4-5-1/6-12-8-10/3-7-(13)…Kimberly Dream (4) has won the last two and has hit the board in 4 of the last 5 races. Has 3 wins in that mix, too. Trainer has 4 wins in just 10 starts this year. In 6 starts over this all-weather surface, this 3YO Colonel John filly has a win and 2 thirds. Should fit with these nicely. Has the speed to catch. Colorincolonel (5) ran 2nd to our top choice last time out. Followed in that spot all the way around the track at Churchill Downs on Nov. 21. Blueberry Shine (1) has been away from the races since mid-October. In 4 previous tries over the all-weather surface, she has a win and a second over this track. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 5-6-12-8-10 in two smaller versions.
4th: 6-9/5-12-(13)/4-2-7…Tyche (6) switches to a new trainer for the first time tonight, as well, and this barn scores with .17% of those making the debut. Has been off since Delaware, and ran a good one then to be fourth to a horse that returned to win right back. Work here on Dec. 9 was solid enough. Gets the meet’s top rider in the irons. This one comes from the back of the pack and will near a clear path late. But that racing style seems to fit here real well. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-9 solidly in the exacta. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 5-12-13-4-2 in two smaller versions.
5th: 5-3/2-11-12/(13)-(14)-10-4/7-9-8…My Mane Girl (5) will be making the second career start for a barn that performs much better with second-time runners. Win percentage elevates to .19% for this kind. This 2YO daughter of Fast Anna cost $125,000 to purchase at the KEE September Yearling Sale a year ago, and ran extremely well for the first part of the initial start. After being bothered a bit at the start, this one rushed to the front and led throughout before tiring late. Tough scenario for any horse to succeed with in the late going. Love the work on Dec. 6 at KEE. Gets a top rider up. Looks salty in this spot, to me. Ready to Play (3) will be making the third career start for a trainer off to a solid start here this meet. This one appears to be a deep closer type. Gets the blinkers for the first time and the barn hits with .08% of those getting the shades for the first time. Also will run on Lasix for the second time. Barn hits with .11% of those that fit that category type. Barn wins at .17% rate on the all-weather. Chance late. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-3 solidly in one exacta. I will key this duo over/under the 2-11-12-10-4, unless the AE horses get in.
6th: 8-3-4/5-7/1-6-2…Lake Nakuru (8) has a win, 3 seconds and a third in the first 11 starts of the career. All of those on the grass. And, all against much tougher competition that what he will face in this event tonight. Son of Animal Kingdom, who won over this track, as well. This one is a deep, deep closer, though, and will need both a well-timed ride and clear space in the lane. Like the recent work pattern. But needs a little luck. Proquestor (3) is a speedster — who could either set it up perfectly for the top pick, or could run away and not get caught. This one has trouble finishing, but does have much more experience over the all-weather with a 1-2-2 mark in 8 starts over the poly. Cha Vez (4) was awful in the last start, but had a lot of trouble in that one. A lot. Bump at the start. Steadied into the first turn. Never got untracked. Toss out, for me. Two races before that were spot on. Stalker has a good shot here. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 3-5-7-1 in two smaller versions.
7th: 6-11-8/7-4/1-5/9-2…Fluellen (6) has been really good of late, but has not raced since Aug. 11. Barn does hit with .15% of those that have been away this long. Also hits with .14% of those switching from the turf to the all-weather. Races since he was equipped with blinkers four races ago have been much improved. Big shot here. Grand Meister (11) comes from the barn of trainer Peter Miller, who has not started a horse here this meet, yet. But the Miller barn was on complete surge mode at Churchill Downs. This one was eased and walked off in the last outing, but has returned to work very well. Gets a new rider tonight and the three races before the last were all spot-on. Return to favor tonight. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 6-11 over/under the 8-7-4-1 in two smaller versions.
8th: 4-11/1-10/(13)-8-12/5-9…My Aunt Tillie (4) is 6-1 in the ML and could offer great value if she is able to hit her best stride tonight. In 16 races over the sod, she has a 2-4-2 record. She will start for a new barn tonight, and the trainer hits with .25% of those making the barn debut. Also hits with .22% of those shipping in for a race, and with .2% in the claiming ranks. California-bred did her best running last year against other state breds, but has a shot in here. Ameribelle (11) drops all the way from the $25,000 price tag to the bargain basement bin tonight. Barn hits with .20% of those getting this kind of class plunge. Has speed to dictate the early going. Could be tough to catch. Like the work on Nov. 29. May improve with the shorter distance, too. I bet the 4-11 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 4-11 over/under the 1-10-13-8-12 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene