|2019 Overall 1,521||1,521/533-547-672|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.04%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.40%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –993 of 1,521||65.29%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 46-80||57.50%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 30-80||37.50%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 9-4-1-0||44.44%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 224-87-44-22||38.84% Win / 68.30% ITM|
Not a bad night at the ole’ ball yard. Not bad at all.
We nailed 4 winners out of the 8 races carded.
And, the exactas? Like finding a bar of gold in the stocking hung with care. We hit exactas that returned $7.70, $13.00, $20.60, $9.00 and a whopping $109.10 for each $1 played.
It could have been better. If the long shot runner-up had not be disqualified in the nightcap? Wow time for the home team.
Now, we hope to add a little more spending money for the Holidays. Here’s a take on tonight’s card at Turfway Park:
1st: 11-6/10-3-9-2/7-4-1A…This is a “tread lightly” race for me. Wide open. Not many great options. I will go with my first Upset Special of the Night — Georgie Hyphen (11). This 4YO son of Zoffany is bred for the grass, so not surprised that the gelding has a win and a third in 3 previous tries over the synthetic. Was trained by Peter Miller just three starts back. New barn trying to crack into the biz. May happen tonight, with a talented rider up. Purr Cat (6) will go for the barn of former rider Joe Deegan. Has a win in 3 previous starts here this meet. Will make another drop in class for this one and the barn hits with .20% of those away from the races this long. Chance. I bet the 11-6 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 11-6 over/under the 10-3-9-2-7 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 8/5-12/1-6-11/12-9…My first Key Play of the Day comes here with Crypto (8). This 2YO gelded son of Bodemeister ran against much tougher on debut at Churchill Downs in June. Ran a good one for awhile, and then spit the bit. Winner of that one came right back to win again and the runner-up tallied the next time out, too. Key race. Gets a rider who has won with 2 of 4 for this barn this meet. Should outclass these for a trainer that hits with .22% of them making the 2nd career start, and with .23% of them losing the shades. My solid pick. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the 5-12-1-6-11 in the exactas.
3rd: 8-7/(14)-5-1-10-11/(13)-2-3-9…Another “tread lightly” race for me, and another wide open affair. Can you just throw a dart? Cedar Creek (8) drops off two straight 3rd-place finishes against better at Churchill Downs. Work on Dec. 15 was solid enough. Gets a top rider to take the reins here. Should be tough in this spot. Jrock (7) looked like he was on a nice little run of things until the last couple of races. Was claimed at Suffolk Downs two races ago. Slowed late in the first try for this barn here on Dec. 6. This will be the second start off a considerable layup. Should still be fresh, but should be a little more fit. Chance. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 14-5-1-10-11 in two smaller versions.
4th:5-10/2-3-(13)-7-11-12/4-6-1…Lil Mateo (5) goes for a barn operator who has won with .67% of the 6 races he has started this year. Nice. This one won two starts back. Faced too tough last time out. Works have been spot on, of late. Gets a rider who is winning at a .21% clip here this meet. Could be a tough out in this spot. Junket (10) will try to make it back-to-back wins tonight when he hits the starting gate. Barn scores with .36% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Barn also has won .28% of the races where it won the last time out. Works really good here on Nov. 22. I bet the 5-10 across the board and then box those two solidly. I will key the 5-10 over/under the 2-3-13-7-11-12 in two smaller versions.
5th: 1-6-10/11-(14)-(13)-8-4-5/2-3-7-9…Big Time Delivery (1) will break from the rail in this 1-mile contest and will really need to break cleanly and alert to carve out a good path going into the first turn. Do not want this one to get shuffled back early and then have to discover a path that is compromised. Last race was super impressive and the barn hits with .20% of those going from the dirt to the all-weather surface. My solid pick here. Estill (6) will get the saddle from youngster Tom Drury — who has hit with .26% of his 132 starters this year. One of Turfway’s best barn operations and this trainer hits with .29% of those making the first start for the new connections. Which this one is. Like the work at Belmont Park on Nov. 27 before shipping out of town. Love the breeding, and the dam is a Stakes winner. Take note. Macabre (10) is a 3YO Hard Spun filly converting from the Rusty Arnold barn over to the newly appointed Mathew Martinez. Gets a nice class drop for this one, and looks like she could be a tough one to hold off late — if she can get a clear trip in the final 1/8th. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the 6-10-11-14-13-8-4-5-2 in two smaller versions.
6th: 8-3-1A/5-4-1/2…Lombo (8) will be making his 2nd career start East of the Mississippi tonight. Trainer Phil D’Amato shipped this one East after a career of banging heads with some of the best in California. Beaten less than 3 in the G2 Eddie D Stakes at Santa Anita in September. Should fit nicely with these kind and has the speed to be a dangerous threat, if left alone. Watch out here. Sevier (3) is a beaten favorite returning to the ring, and the barn hits with .23% of those kind. Had a very nice work on Dec. 16 over a sloppy racetrack and was even better the work before over a fast one. Looks good right now. Easy winner two back. This one could be outstanding in this spot, too. Land Battle (1A) has a nice 2-1-1 record in 6 previous starts here. Experience over the poly usually pays dividends. Work here on Dec. 3 was spot on, as well. Rider was DQ’d from the last race on Wednesday night. May have a reason to find the circle tonight. Added incentive. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 1A5-4-1-2 in two smaller versions.
7th: (13)-3-2/8/10-9-7/11-6-4…What a nice race this has turned out to be. Wow time. If Hayden’s Havoc (13) draws into the race from the AE List, I have to use this 3YO son of Jimmy Creed. Has a 1-1-1 record in the first 5 starts and is coming off a nice effort against much better last time out. Tired late, but might have won with a little more conditioning. Work on Dec. 8 at Churchill Downs signals that this one is ready. Take note. If the #13 does NOT draw in, then I go with my second Key Play of the Day — Getyourmindright (3). Love the odds on this one. Brilliant speedster. Barn hits with .28% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. And, barn scores with .26% of those moving from the dirt to the all-weather. Love the works since the last race. Looks really good right now. This one was cut out to be a Stakes winner. May be tough to catch on the lead tonight. I bet the 13 if he draws in. If not, I key on the 3. I bet win/place/show. And, then I key the 13 or the 3 over/under the 2-8-10-9-7-11. More with the 2-8-10 than the rest.
8th: 3-12-4/7-1-(13)-(14)-8…The final race of the night should be a doozy. Could be some payoffs connected with this one, too. I will give the slight edge to one of the favs — Right the Wrong (3). This 3YO gelded son of Artie Schiller has never been over the all-weather, but should love it. Has 2 seconds and a third in the last 3. Trainer has not won a race this year, but she picks up the meet’s top rider. Something’s up, right? Written Permission (12) is 6-1 ML odds and could drift up the meter a spot or two. I like the race three back and the barn hits with .12% of those dropping this much in class. Has speed. Always good to have speed. Mr Abernathy (4) is an Indiana-bred who could upset the apple cart a bit here, as well. Rider is off to a horrid start to this Holiday Meet, but look at the way this one started the career. A second at Indy Grand and then a third at CD. Back class is there and now drops to an all-time low spot. Company here could help. I bet the 3-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3-12 over/under the rest in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene