Both Totals: 13 / 2-5-5
2021 Overall 1,905 1905 / 712-668-891
Win % of Top Pick 37.38%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.74%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,279-1,905 67.14%
2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 58-104 55.77%
2021 Top Selections Win / TP 39-104 37.50%
“Key Horses” @ TP 13 / 5-3-2 38.46% Win / 76.92% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 289/ 129-65-26 44.64% Win / 76.12% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ TP 14 / 1-1-2 .07% Win / 28.57% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

(Statistics will be updated after Thursday’s races are completed)

The first post on this New Year’s Eve will be 1:25 p.m. ET. And…here’s our looks on the last day of 2021.

1st: 4-10/9-1/2-7-8-11/6/5-3…Harvey’s Princess (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this final day of 2021. This 3YO Cairo Prince filly nearly won at this same level last time out. Came from nearly last to miss the wire first by just a half-length. Same rider returns and with a little better early foot, then this one will be very tough in this spot. Trainer is having a very nice meet, winning at a .25% clip. Has won 2 of the last 6, too. Barn wins with .18% when racing with Lasix for the 2nd time, also. Peacebethejourney (10) goes for a new barn operation for the first time here. New trainer only wins with .07% of those making the barn debut. But this one drops from the $40,000 level to this ranking. Has some ability and may be a factor at the wire, too. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-10 in the exactas. I will key the 4-10 over/under the 9-1-2-7-8-11 in two smaller units.

2nd: 4-(14)-6/1-10-11-5/8-9/3-7…Feeling Dangerous (4) could make the early daily double with back-to-back #4s. This 4YO gelding comes in off a near-miss 2nd place finish, too. Won just three starts ago and has a 1-1-1 mark in 6 tries at this distance. Top rider at the meet takes the reins again. Barn wins with .18% over the AW. Adds up for me. Zarmae (14) may be a real factor if this one draws in from the AE List. Has a win and a 2nd in three tries over the AW surfaces in the past. Rider has had a solid 2021, winning at a .15% rate in 514 mounts. This will be a new start at Turfway Park. O Cigano (6) will stretch out to the route distance here for the first time in a long time. Gets a new rider who has won with .10% of his 69 mounts here so far this meet. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 1-10-11-5-8-9 in two smaller units.

3rd: 1A-7-4/1-3-5-8/6/2…Bia Bolt Runner (1A) nearly won here on the last trip, finishing 3rd but beaten less than 2 at the wire. That was at odds of 101-to-1. Wow. I normally avoid these types coming back, but this one should appreciate the drop in class from the $30,000 ranks to the $15,000 level here. New trainer is a former trainer and wins at a .25% rate when dropping this much at one time. Chance. Graciana (7) drops from the $20,000 level to this one and the lowest price tag ever here. Barn wins with .23% when moving from the dirt surface to the AW. And, this one has already won over an AW surface before — coming at Arlington Park. Love this one’s chances at a square price. Seaward (4) will bump up a couple of ranks in the claiming game. Has just 1 win in the first 18 starts. Hmmm. I bet the entry-7 across the board. If you want to bet only one of them? Go with the 7. I box those two in the exactas. I will key the entry-7 over/under the 4-1-3-5-8-6 in two smaller units.

4th: 9/2/5-11/4-7/1-6-8-10/3…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Kitchen Fire (9). This 6YO gelding nearly won last time out here on Dec. 11. Tired at the wire, but was beaten just 1/2 length. Has speed. Will use it. Early and often. They will have to come and try to catch this one. May improve, though, with a little shorter distance. I’m all in here with this one — who has a 9-4-7 record in 25 previous AW races. I bet the 9 across the board and then key the 9 over/under the 2-5-11-4-7-1-6 in the exactas. More with the 2 than the rest of them. 

5th: 11-3-5/6-(13)/1-2/8-9/4-7-12-(14)-10…Lady de Peron (11) is the pick here. This 3YO filly was bred in Great Britain and has run all four career races over the turf, so far. But this one has talent and was in a good spot until the very end of the last race at KEE. Returns here as a beaten favorite. Has speed. Can use it. Has hit the board in 3 of the first 4 career starts. I’m in. All in. Love this one. I bet the 11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-13. I will key the 11 over/under the 3-5-6-13-1-2-8-9 in two smaller units.

6th: 3-11/6-9-10/5-12/1-2…Trickizar (3) is another ML favorite, and another who figures prominently on the stat sheet. This one won easily here on Dec. 2 at this same level. Dominated with a late run that flushed this one from 7th to the front with ease. In 6 starts on an AW surface, this one has 4 wins and a second. All of those have come here. I(‘m in. All in. Love this one, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-11 in the exactas. I will key the 3-11 over/under the 6-9-10-5-12 in two smaller units.

7th: 6-7/4-5/1-8-10/9-3-2…Wentru (6) drops from some serious allowance company into the claiming ranks and the barn wins with .20% when going from turf to AW, and with .18% after 386 claiming ranks. This one gets a new rider, too, and he is having some success here this meet, with a .13% win rate. My first “Longshot Special of the Day.” The next horse up? How about Nepal Up (7), who comes from the successful barn of Paulo Lobo, who has won with .20% of 226 starters this year. Blinkers go back on, and the barn wins with .33% of those that have experienced this equipment adjustment. Drop in class here should help, too. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 4-5-1-8-10 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-5-8/10-12/3-(14)-9/2…Rogue Leader (1) gets the edge here in the day’s finale. This 3YO gelding is a NY-bred and will be dropping to the bargain bin here in KY. Ran a solid 3rd here on Dec. 10 against open company last time out. Connections looking for a quick win and an exit plan, it seems. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the ban wins with .25% of those kind. I look no further. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-12 in two smaller units. I will key the 1 over/under the 5-8-10-12-3-14-9 in two smaller units, as well. 

Editor’s Note:

Thanks to my great friend, Mark Drury, who pointed out to me that I had left out the final two races on the New Year’s Eve card. He asked if I had fallen asleep or had a stroke.

Probably both.

Here they are, without further adieu:

9th: 10-4-9/8-1/3-6/2/5-7…Invader (10) has been away from the races since May, but that doesn’t bother this trainer, who is as could at getting his runners ready off the bench as any trainer I’ve ever witnessed. This one has run 9 times in the career. Has a 2-2-2 record. Has speed and plenty of it. That comes in very handy over this surface right now. Trainer wins with .24% off the bench this long and with .26% of those switching from the turf to the AW. Ran huge against Field Pass in the Jeff Ruby Steaks here in year 2020. Loves this track. Looks to be training very well, too. I’m on. Kinetic Sky (4) has never run over the AW before, but he has done a lot of good running in the career. Has a 2-4-2 record in 10 starts and is coming back here after facing some real good ones over the career. Gets a rider who is struggling this Holiday Meet. Not going to get any gimmes here. Just needs to ride better. Dr Jack (9) could easily be the upset winner here. Ran pretty well against King Fury two races back. Started the career with some good ones. Ran 3rd to Mandaloun in the third career race. If he can rediscover that form? Look out. I bet the 10-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 10 over/under the 4-9-8-1-3-6-2 in two smaller units.

10th: 4-5-11/(14)-(13)-8-9/2-1-3…We finish the day with a MSW event and the newcomers could have a strong influence in this one. I will give the edge to Sherwood Avenue (4) — a first timer from the barn of Wesley Ward. He wins with .30% on the first try and the dam of this one has thrown 3 winners form 4 starters. Wins with .32% in AW races, too. Threat. Shannonrun (5) ran at KEE in October over the sod. Ran much better than the odds would indicate. Been off since, but rates a shot with that performance. Robust (11) is a first timer from the barn of Stephen Lyster. Has trained well and the dam has a winner from one starter. Barn wins with .20% over the AW. Look out here. I bet the 4-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-11 over/under the 5-14-13-8-9-2-1 in two smaller units.

Now…we’re done.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene