|Day Results||8 / 3-1-5|
|2020 Overall 1684||1684 / 598-578-740|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.51%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.93%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,089-1,684||64.67%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 9-18||50.00%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 7-18||38.89%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 3-2-0-1||66.67% Win / 100.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 234-86-48-33||36.75% Win / 71.37% ITM|
We had a rather dismal night up at the new & improved Turfway Park on Thursday night — until…
We nailed the last two on the card and rallied home with a nice couple of winners that turned dismal into deposits.
Had 3 winners on the 8 races. Had just 3 exactas, too, but they returned $13.00, $27.80 and $30.60 for each $1 played. Thank goodness for more than $1 played.
So, after the first two days, we are hitting 7 winners in 18 races for a nice .38.89% win clip. Our Key Plays of the Day have gone 2-0-1.
We are ready for more Friday night action…
Here’s our plays:
1st: 1-4-8/7-2-11/(13)-5-10-9…Alien Season (1) gets the nod in the lid-lifter. This 6YO gelding comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who won with his first starter this meet. Drops to the bargain bin after a near win at KY Downs last time out in September. If he converts to the new AW track here — and Ward wins with .34% going from the turf to the AW — then this one should be a tough out. Rider has won with .30% of the last 37 mounts for this barn. Hank the Tank (4) drops in class and will make the 2nd start since May of 2019 here tonight. Working well in Louisville and gets a top rider, who is off to a fantastic start to this meet. Look for this one to push the pace. If fit? Watch out. Improbably Story (8) drops in class and does have a win in two starts over the previous AW surface at Turfway. Can flash a bit of speed, as well. Chance. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 8-7-2-11-5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-3-7/2-6-8/1…Big Union (5) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who won the feature on Thursday night. This 2YO son of Union Rags cost the connections $260,000 at a March 2YO Sale. Won the last time out and now has earned back about $40,000 of the original price. Look for this one to be near the front and the rider has won with .23% of the last 35 mounts for the barn. One to beat. Kitten’s Firstlove (3) won the last time out when moving over the sod at Churchill Downs in early November. Barn wins with .18% of those converting over to the AW from the sod. This one has a very nice stalking style and comes from a red-hot barn. Chance. Hoistthemainsail (7) has hit the board in each of the last two and figures to fit with these tonight. Can come from off the pace and the rider has a win and two seconds in the first 3 mounts of the meet. B arn wins with .17% of those returning as a beaten favorite and with .21% of those stretching out from a sprint distance to a route. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 3-2-6-8-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: (13)-3-12-7/(14)-9-2-10/4-1…Can’tbetemall (13) can’t win the all, either, if they don’t get in the race. This one will need a little luck to bounce from the AE List into the starting gate. If he does, though, he has a legit chance against these types. Drops in class. Gets a top rider for this market. And, the works are solid enough to assist. Look to see if he makes the race. If not, I go with Classified Info (3) in this spot. The 3YO gelded son of Bayern is a Maryland-bred, but drops for a top conditioner. Barn wins with .18% when making the third start off a layup and gets the “bug” rider tonight. The 10 pounds weight allowance can’t hurt the chances. Fast Recovery (12) returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .14% of those kind. Picks up a solid rider and the odds are appealing. I bet the 13 if he gets in. If not, I go with the 3 across the board and box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 13-3-12 over/under the 7-9-2-10 in two smaller versions. Spread race in the horizontals.
4th: 5-11/9-12-4-3/1-10/2-6…Rathrbluckythngood (5) is coming in off a near miss 2nd last time out and has hit the board in each of the last 3 outs. Working good and gets a top rider to fit the saddle. In two tries over the previous Turfway surface, this one had a win and a second. Likes the venue. Discreet Kitty (11) drops in class for this one after a bummer following two wins in row in Cincy. Gets a solid rider switch and has speed to use early and often. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 5-11 over/under the 9-12-4-3-1-10 in two smaller units.
5th: 4-(13)-(14)/5-7-1-3/12-2-8-9/6-10…Holiday Inaugural Stakes…Artie’s Princess (4) gets the edge in this group — especially if the AE horses don’t make the gate. This 3YO filly is coming off a win in a G2 Stakes at Woodbine in November. Has speed. And, the rider from Canada is named for the mount. This one is trained by Wesley Ward and has the looks of a good one. If the 13-14 get in, I use. If not, I definitely use Cambria (5) in here, too. This one was a top notch 2YO. This season has been a bummer. But look for more out of this one tonight, returning as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .28% of those kind. My first Longshot Special of the Night. I will go this route: I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key with the 13-14 if they draw in. If they do not? I key the 4-5 over/under the 7-1-3-12-2 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-3/5-1-8/9/2…Peruvian Boy (4) gets the top billing here. This 3YO son of Tapiture ran a very nice 2nd last time out for an underrated barn operation. In 3 previous starts over an AW surface, this one has a 1-1-1 mark. Will be stalking and pouncing. Hope more pouncing at the wire. That Quality (3) ships in from the Northeast for this one. Has not been out since Sept. 4, but the barn wins with .26% of those returning from this type of a layup. Works are solid over this track, too. Gets a solid rider choice. Big threat here. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 5-1-8-9 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-3/11-12-8/9-10-6/(13)…Hard Knocking (7) has run two really good ones in a row and looks to the “knocking” on the door of the winner’s circle. Has speed and just tired enough to get caught at KEE on Oct. 16. Rider is red hot to start this meet and this one looks to have the quality edge over the rest. Partner’s Hope (3) ran 3rd on debut, but the barn wins a lot more on the 2nd start than the first. Gets a nice rider switch for this one and this son of More Than Ready cost $150,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Looks the part. Now time to act it. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 11-12-8-9-10 in two smaller units.
8th: 3-4/6-11-9/8-(13)-2…Can’t Hide From Me (3) is my first Key Play of the Night. This 4YO gelding is coming in off an easy 4-length win up at Arlington Park on Sept. 26. Has a 4-1-1 mark in 11 tries over the AW surfaces, and gets a top rider for a barn that is winning with .27% of 285 starters this year. Enough for me. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then hammer lock the 3-4 exacta box. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 4-6-11-9-8 in two smaller units, and then key the 3 over/under the “all button” in another
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene