|Total Day Results||8 / 4-2-1|
|2021 Overall 238||238 / 75-79-89|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.51%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.03%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 146-230||63.48%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 91-148||61.49%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 48-148||32.43%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 24 / 11-3-3||45.83% Win / 70.83% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 37 / 20-7-3||54.05% Win / 81.08% ITM|
Another productive night up at the “new and improved” Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky. Out of the 8 races, we produced and touted 4 winners. Had slim pickings on the exactas, unfortunately. And, a no-go on the Pick 5, too. But we had a win and a third out of 3 Key Plays of the Night.
Not a home run.
Solid single to right?
Hoping for more tonight, as we get a couple of very nice Stakes events and preps for both the KY Derby and the KY Oaks tonight, as well.
Nice card. Let’s go win a few.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 2-5-8/6-4/1-3-7…Sacred Storm (2) is a speed merchant who will try to use her speed to run them off their feet in this 6-furlong sprint over the new Tapeta surface. In 7 tries over the AW surfaces, so far, the 6YO City Zip mare has a record of 2-1-2. All those over this marketplace. Has hit the board in each of the last 4 and has 2 wins in that mix. Should improve with a shorter distance tonight and the rider has won with 1 of 4 for this barn over the last two months. My pick. Flat Meadow (5) drops in class tonight after a tiring 4th against tougher last time out. In 3 previous runs here, has one second. Should like the likes of these, and the class drop should elevate her game. Gets a huge rider switch for this effort. Threat. Kiana’s Love (8) is my first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 5YO mare didn’t fare well last time out in November at Hawthorne. But in 5 previous runs over the AW, she has a 2-1-0 mark. Gets back to that surface tonight for a very solid barn operation and picks up the hottest rider on this side of the moon. Big chance for the upset here. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 2-8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Pick 5 “A” Ticket: 2-5-8/4-5-8/2-7-6/5-3-2-1A-1/1-5-6: $162 for .50-cent ticket
Pick 5 “B” Ticket: 2-5-8-6-4/4-8/2-7/5-3-2-1A-1/1-5-6-4: $160 for .50-cent ticket
2nd: 4-5-8/9-1-11/10-2…Parrott Head (4) drops back into the MCL ranks after a near-miss 2nd in a MSW event in Ohio last time out. Two starts ago, while here at TP, this one was a close-up 3rd. This one returns to night as a beaten favorite, and this barn wins with .40% of those. Sharp work on Feb. 22 and a good hand takes the saddle assignment. Will be closing late. Master of War (5) drops from the MSW ranks and will face a lot easier types here. Barn wins with .23% who have been away from the gate this long, and with .10% of the last 31 to don the blinkers for the first time. Rider is a bit chilly, but this one looks about ready. Bocelli (8) comes form the Mark Casse barn, and these connections have won with .24% this meet. Drops from the MSW ranks to face the MCL level for the first time. Gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .16% of those. Look for this one to be a lot sharper tonight and has a real chance. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 5-9-1-11-10-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-7-6/9-10-4-8/3-1/5…Etu Babou (2) is 6-1 in the Brisnet.com ML, and I would love to book those odds right now. This 3YO son of Speightster drops to the $30,000 price tag again tonight. Last time at this level? Won two starts ago. Over this track, too. Work on Feb. 22 was spot on. Look for this one to be super sharp tonight at a solid price. I’m all in here. Ahnaf (7) goes for a barn that has won with .29% for the meet. Didn’t run well at all last time out, when facing much tougher over the sod at Gulfstream Park. But back in December, this one broke the maiden right here over the Tapeta. Look for more tonight. Front Man (6) just missed last time out, while running 2nd at this level. Veteran rider back in the saddle and has a shot if he can find running room late. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 6-91-10-4-8-3-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-3-2/1A-1-4/8-6/7…Working Title (5) goes for a trainer that I have never heard of or know anything about. In 15 starts over the last two years? This outfit has .13% winners. Don’t know. but the last time out, this one was facing tough customers and ran OK. Two starts back, when at Churchill Downs, ran a huge one against much, much tougher. If this 4YO Honor Code colt is prepped and fit? Look out at a solid price. Hellorhighwater (3) has not been very close since winning at Kentucky Downs. That was in August. Oh, yeah. Of 2019. Wow. But this one is working great and could come off the bench here with a real purpose. Chance for me in this spot. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the entry-4 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-5-6/4-3-2-8-10-12/7-9-(13)-11…John Battaglia Memorial Stakes…Gretzky the Great (1) comes into this KY Derby prep with 3 wins and a second in the first 5 career starts. Ran a tiring 6th in the G1 BC Juvenile Turf last November at KEE in his last start. Since then? Working very well for the return and the barn wins with .17% coming off the bench. Gets a top rider for this effort, who has won with .25% of his mounts this meet. Has speed and should carve out a good trip from the rail. Kinetic Sky (5) ships in from the Fair Grounds for this Derby prep. Won the last time out to break the maiden in New Orleans. Won by over 3 that day. Easy-peasy. Has speed. Has style. And, comes from one of the best barn operators in the free world. Threat. Pico d’Oro (6) is my next “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 3YO son of Curlin comes in with a near-miss win in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct. Has a win over this track, too. Trainer is having a super meet here. Would not be a surprise. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 6-4-3-2-8-10-12 in two smaller units. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 1-4-3-2-8-10 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-1/9-6/7-8-(13)-10/3-12/5-2…Hulda (4) lost in the career debut here on Jan. 2 by a whopping 23 lengths. Didn’t beat a horse. But? This one was bet down to 3-1 odds before the race and was completely and totally eliminated from the race going into the first turn of that 11/8-mile race. Has trained expertly for the return and gets a new rider. Look at the odds board. If the action returns? And, I suspect it will. Then, it is time to plunk and hope for better. Trainer is winning at a miracle rate of .53% in 17 starts here this meet. Wins with .33% with 2nd time starters. Wins with .22% in the MSW ranks. My pick. Sundial (1) ran a very solid 4th in the first career start here on Jan. 29. Right into contention until faltering late in a 1-mile event. Should benefit from that exercise and be a tough out here. Has speed and may press the pace again. Rail should not hurt in that style of running. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-1 in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 9-6-7-8-13-10 in two smaller units. I will key the 4 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
7th: 7-8-2/1-10/9-6/5-11/12-4…Cincinnati Trophy Stakes…This is a prep for the KY Oaks, with qualifying points attached. And, it has drawn a very nice field of horses — led by my next “Longshot Special of the Night” — Phantom Vision (7). This one has odds of 6-1 in the Brisnet.com odds board and I would love to pin that down. This 3YO daughter of Declaration of War is coming here off a very nice 3rd at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 10. Led until the late going in that one. Returns as a beaten favorite now, and the barn wins with .22% of those kind. Love the pace scenario that this one can lay down. Will have to catch late. Rocket Reload (8) is another from the barn of Brad Cox and another coming off an impressive win at the Fair Grounds. Speedster will likely push the button early and has the ability to carry them a long, long way. Come catch me if you can. Just Read It (2) comes from a top barn operation, but it has been a bit chilly here all meet. In the first 15 starts here, the trainer has won with only .07%. But? This one comes into this one off a MSW win at Aqueduct the last day of January. Won that one by nearly 7 lengths. Working very well. Rider is holding his own here. Chance. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-10 in two smaller units. I will key the 7 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units, as well.
8th: 6-9/1-12/5-2/3-11-8…Satiate (6) has not started since December. Of 2019. Long time between drinks of water. But this 6YO Kitten’s Joy mare may have gone to try and become a mother and just didn’t work out. Now, she is back at the track. If you look back? Has a record of 4-3-4 in 17 career starts and has speed to use. Trainer is winning at a .25% clip this meet and has won at a .28% clip over the last 341 starts. Works for me. Kupuri (9) has raced here twice this meet and has a 3rd and a 2nd to show for the efforts. Trainer is 0-for-20 this meet, and is over-due for a winner’s circle photo shoot. Jockey is 0-for-36 and that is a lot to overcome. But? Chance? Maybe. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed in the exacta.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene