|2020 Overall 40||40/11-13-16|
|Win % of Top Pick||27.50%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.33%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –27-40||67.50%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 27-40||67.50%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 11-40||27.50%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 6-1-2-3||16.67% Win / 100% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 6-1-2-3||16.67% Win / 100% ITM|
I’ll be the first to tell you that I have a tough time handicapping over the all-weather surfaces. My system and it? Just doesn’t seem to jive. Last night was another example. Took me 8 races before my squirrel found a nut. And, it was a modest winner, at that.
After the first 40 races this meet, we have found 11 winners for you. Not much to write home about. If I did write home, in fact, I would probably get it back as “Return to Sender.” This is after we did scrap together 40 wins out of 120 races during the December Holiday Meet at Turfway.
So, we are switching things up. Going to use a few different figures into our calculations. Going to try a revised system and see what we come up with. Experiment under way.
Here’s our first try at the new mix. Hope it renders a little better result. Plus, we are switching up our photo, too. Crossing our fingers, also. And, going to try a few more home remedies to try to kick-start a win streak.
(Going with an Iceland photo…since I have been cold as ice….sorry)
1st: 5/2-7-12/1A-6/4…Golden Ready (5) is my first Key Play of the Day. This 5YO gelded son of More Than Ready is dropping from the $15,000 price tag to the bargain bin today. Barn hits with .14% of those that get this kind of plunge. Also, didn’t run that badly here in his first try over the AW. Like the fact that he will stretch out to the route for the first time. Barn hits with .25% of those. And, this sire can get runners over any surface. I go in strong here on the 5. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the rest of the numbers in the exactas. More with the 2-7-12 than the rest.
2nd: 6-7-8/4-1-5/2-3…Brezno (6) gets the drop in class for this one, too. This 10YR is a PA-bred and will be trying to make amends for the poor performance last time out. In 6 races over this surface, though, he has a 3-1-1 record. So, I can toss the last one. Give another chance here. Class drop should assist in tonight’s performance, as well. Meet’s top rider gets the reins. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under the 7-8-4-1-5 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 2-5-4/1-7/6-9-3…Blue Sky in Dixie (2) is my third class dropper that I will put on top. Not close in any of the last four outings, but those were against much, much, much tougher. Gets a new trainer tonight, who has won with 1-of-3 making the barn debut. If this one has anything in the tank, she should relish this class level. Sire is one of my favorites on the AW, too. Adds up for me. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-7, as well.
4th: 7-8/5-2-1/6-9-4…Gladtobehere (7) is a name that I just love. I can relate to, as well. In 4 starts over the AW here, has a 1-1-1 record. Gets a huge rider switch for this one. If you can toss the last one, this one fits here strong. I can. I will. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-8 in one exacta. I will key the 7 over/under the 8-5-2-1-6 in two smaller versions.
5th: 11-10/12-9-6/(13)-(14)-1-2-9…Merchants of Cool (11) is owned and trained by Wesley Ward — who just so happens to be winning at a .33% clip this meet. Blinkers come off, and the barn hits with .23% of those kind. Coming off a long layoff, but the barn scores with .21% of them. And…the trainer hits with .33% of those switching from dirt to AW. My pick. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the 11-10 in one exacta. I will key the 11 over/under the 10-12-9-6 and the AE horses, if they draw in.
6th: 9-3/5-8-10/6…Nuttin’ Faster (9) is an Ohio-bred son of Roman Ruler, and I normally would not favor them against horses in open company. But this one ran too well in the last try here to simply ignore. If he can duplicate that effort. Scores here, IMO. Has hit the board in 8 of 18 lifetime efforts and gets a huge jockey change here. Barn hits with .15% of those returning as a beaten favorite. My pick. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-3 in one exacta. I key the 9 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
7th: 8-2-11/4-7/10-9-1…Twin Channel (8) is a roommate of my filly, in the barn of Stephen Lyster. I have always like the “try” in this 5YO daughter of English Channel. Gives you all she has, and that is normally pretty good at this track, too. In 3 lifetime efforts here, she has 2 wins. Barn hits with .24% of those moving from the sod to the AW. Look for this one to be sharp tonight. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8 over/under the 2-11-4-7-10-9 in two smaller versions.
8th: 2-11-13/1-4-10/8-9/3-6…Grade (2) put in a nice performance here in the last try and should benefit from that experience and try. Had to alter the course in the stretch in that one, or may have won. Only has the one win in 18 tries, but does have 5 seconds and 4 thirds. Consistent sort. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the 11-13-1-4-10-8-9 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene