|2020 Overall 64||64/23-19-21|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.94%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||32.81%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –45-64||70.31%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 45-64||70.31|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 23-64||35.94%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 10-2-4-3||20.00% Win / 90% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 10-2-4-3||20.00% Win / 90% ITM|
We nailed 3 winners on the Thursday night 8-race card, and had three exactas that returned a modest $12.40, $25.50 and $19.40 for each $1 played. Our two Key Plays of the Night really bailed us out, money wise, at the end of the card. The first one, in Race 7, ran a nice second and we hit that exacta pretty good. The last one, in the final race, won and we hit that exacta, too.
Nice way to end the night.
Since modifying our numbers, strategy and reformulated some of our “priority times” we have gone 12-for-24 at Turfway Park. Those are not bad numbers anywhere. But for me? On the all-weather? At Turfway Park?
Those are huge numbers. Here’s hoping that the “experiment” lasts and we now have a system that is a little more predictable and reliable.
And, here’s a look at tonight’s card: (Our selections and Comments will be coming later this afternoon. Our duties call this morning.)
1st: 3-6/1/9-4/7-2-8…This is a very well-balanced field and most have taken their turn at both good and poor performances. I give the slight edge to the top 2 numbers in this procession — led by Lucky at Justice (3). This 5YO Lookin at Lucky mare has run 15 times over the AW surfaces, with a tidy record of 2-5-2. Comes out of a tougher race here on Jan. 1. Ran well in that one, and was beaten a length for the whole shooting match. If she ran duplicate that race and get a bit of an easier trip, then she should be a factor at the wire. Tudox Lifting Off (6) goes for a new barn operation tonight, and the trainer hits with .22% of those making the debut for the new connections. That with a sample size of 32, as well. Drops considerably for this effort. Is a NY-bred and has done much of her success against other State-breds, but the work here on Jan. 8 was solid. Should make a run towards the end and the rider can help with that. Gets the weight break for the apprentice. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over the next two (9-4) in a smaller version.
2nd: 7/2-4/1-8/11-9…My first Key Play of the Night comes here with My Sweet Baboo (7). This 4YO Candy Ride filly will be running up against the colts and geldings in ththis affair, and that normally is a non-starter for me. And, this one has not been out since October of last year — when racing at KEE. That’s a little long to be on the sideline for me, too. But, this one drops into the MCL ranks for the first time for a barn that hits with .28% of them. The barn is killing it here this meet, with 11-5-2 mark in the first 43 starts. That averages out to a .26% win clip. And, this one has faced some goo ones in the past. The works here have been very solid, and the rider has won with half of the 6 horses that he has ridden for this barn, too. Interesting spot, but I am game. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed. Even if she is a filly going up against the boys.
3rd: 1-10/8-9/7-12-(14)…Taranto (1) is a 5YO son of Gio Ponti and the sire line does well over the AW surface. In two previous runs over the poly, he has a win and a second. Ran very well against tougher last time out. Now, gets class relief. Returns as a beaten favorite here, too, and the barn hits with .15% of them. Rider returns after not riding this one last time out. Won on this one two back. Adds up for me. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-10 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 1-10 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
4th: 3-10/2B-8/9-4…Almafuerte (3) was even-money last time out at Hawthorne, and ran 3rd after a wide trip into and out of the final turn. Lost tons of ground there. Gets a new rider today, known for patience and the ability to save footing. Drops in class for this one and has the back class to be competitive. Take note, though, that his one was 0-for-12 last year, despite 5 seconds and 3 thirds. Hmmm. Brews Toonie Toss (10) goes for a barn that is having a really good meet with a limited number of runners. In 8 starts so far, has a 2-3-1 mark. This one has a 5-6-5 mark in 34 trips over the AW, and has 2 seconds in 5 previous tires here. Should be much better tonight, with the second start off a layup. Huge rider switch. And, barn hits with .25% of those coming back as a beaten favorite. I bet the 10 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 3-10 in one exacta. I will key the 3-10 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
5th: 8-10/7-3/8-1/12-4/6-2-9-11…Forego Stakes…What a nice field for this $75,000 Stakes event, scheduled for 6.5-furlongs over the All Weather surface. I will go with my first Upset Special of the Night. King Daddy (8) is listed at 15-1 odds in the ML. I would be happy if we get half of those odds. This 6YO son of Scat Daddy has been running exclusively in Peru. Will make the first start in NA tonight for a barn that hits with only .07% of those that ship into the U.S., and with .08% of those making the debut for the new connections. But…This one has a 7-4-1 record in South America, and is by a top sire who can produce runners over the plastic. And…This one has been training lights out at KEE. Lights out. I will take this one on top. Kitten’s Cat (10) is the horse to beat. This 6YO son of Kitten’s Joy is coming off a huge 2nd up at Aqueduct on Dec. 8. Came with a rush in that one. In 3 previous runs over AW, though, only has the 1 third. Hmmm. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 10. Less with the 7-3. Lesser with the 8-1. Even less with the rest. But I am all in on the importer.
6th: 8-1-5/2-4-6/3-7…A wide, wide open affair here. I will give the slight edge to Don’t Stop Maria (8). This 5YO mare has 2 wins in 7 starts here, and is coming off a solid effort — while trying to escape traffic issues — last time out. Second start off the layup, can be tricky — but this barn wins with .24% of them. Rider has 2 wins in 6 starts for this barn operator in the last 60 days. And, This one has hit the board in 4 of the last 6 tries. Chance. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller varieties. I tread lightly here.
7th: 2-3/7-8-1-10/6-4-5…Another wide open tilt here, but I will go with Mr. Chow (2) on top. This 10YO son of English Channel has raced here 22 times before. Veteran. Has 4-3-4 record and has a nice 2nd here on Jan. 1 at this same level. Went wide in that one and gets the meet’s top rider to return to the saddle. Barn hits with .20% on the third start off a layup. That’s where we are here tonight. Creative Courage (3) may spice up the odds rack. Listed at 6-1 in the ML, and I think deserves a better look than that. Drops in class and has never been offered up for this price before. Go back just three races and has a nice win at Indy Grand. Regular rider returns for this one. Look for more tonight. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-3 in one exacta. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 7-8-1-10-6 in two smaller versions.
8th: 11-12/5-8-1-10/3-(13)-(14)/2-9…Dehydration (11) will be making the career debut tonight for a barn that has hit with .26% winners out of the first 43 starters here this meet. Barn scores with .15% of those that make the debut in the MCL ranks. But this one has been training very well here for this start. Probably will get haltered out of this one, is my guess. But the combo of the trainer and the jockey has resulted in 2-1-0 record in the last 4 outs. Interesting. Mountain Melodies (12) is a roommate of the top pick. This 3YO daughter of Shackleford is another candidate to get nabbed here for a nice price. Drops to half the price level as last time out, and the barn hits with .21% when they get a plunge like this . Works solid here. Needs a better start. Can’t get much worse. Top rider named. I bet the 11-12 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 11-12 over/under the 5-8-1-10-3-2 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene