|Day Results||8 / 4-3-2|
|2021 Overall 94||94 / 29-32-36|
|Win % of Top Pick||30.85%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.40%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 57-94||60.64%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 44-72||61.11%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 21-72||29.17%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 11 / 6-2-0||54.54% Win / 72.73% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 16 / 9-2-0||56.25% Win / 68.75% ITM|
A nice night up at the “new and improved” Turfway Park. We hit the Pick 5 with a $72 ticket that rendered a bit more than $776.00. Nice way to celebrate the evening.
We are hoping that this may kick start our new year and get us rolling a bit in the handicapping department.
Here’s a look at tonight’s card. Hoping for some more good luck:
1st: 5-8/2-3-7-9/6-4-1…Aldo’s Kitten (5) ran well here on Dec. 17 to be a steady 3rdagainst the likes of these. Went off that day at 33-to-1 and outran the odds, to be sure. Gets a new rider tonight, and will need a lot more luck – but this one has hit the board in each of the last 4 outings. Should be close at the wire. Bigmancan (8) drops from the $20,000 ranks to the $15,000 level here, and will be making the first start since November at Churchill Downs. In three previous tries at TP, this one has a win and a second. Will be coming late and will need some room and luck late. But could be the class in here. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 2-3-7-9-6-4-1 in two smaller units. In the Pick 5? I will spread out here and use – at the very least – the 5-8-2-3-7-9-6.
2nd: 12-10-9/6-4/7-1-3/5-11-2…Seventy Seventycat (12) will be my first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 5YO son of Courageous Cat comes into this one off a better-than-looks 5th against tougher here on Jan. 7. In 13 tries here, has a 3-1-2 mark an d drops to a career low price tag for this affair. Like this rider switch, to be sure. Ochestral (10) is another possible longshot play, coming in with 8-1 ML odds posted by Brisnet.com. This one ran poorly here last time out. Done after a half-mile run in that one. But the form on the AW is much too good for that last race to be the norm. In 21 previous tries over the AW, this one has a 5-4-3 mark. Gets a very nice rider switch here, too. Look for more out of this one tonight. Prince Arlo (9) ran 3rd at Hawthorne Park last time out on Nov. 29 and now ships in from Chicago to give the AW a try. Picks up a nice veteran rider for this try. Chance. I bet the 12-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 12-10 over/under the 9-6-4-7-1-3 in two smaller units. In the horizontals, I have to spread out here, as well – using the 12-10-9-6-4-7-1-3.
3rd: 5-7-2/4/1-6-8/9-3…Thrill Ride (5) ships in for trainer Ian Wilkes and picks up the expert riding services of the trainer’s son-in-law, Chris Landeros. Over the last 21 rides, they have teamed up to win .14% of the time. But over the last week, this rider has gone 4-1-0 in 11 mounts. Since December arrived and the racing circuit moved to TP, Landeros has gone 17-14-7 in 72 mounts for a .24% win rate. This could add to that impressive chart. Has some speed. Should fit nicely here. Mom’s Eye Candy (7) is a first time starter for a barn that wins with .11% of those making the debut. Has been training quite nicely for this one, and the dam of this one has produced 9 winners from 9 starters – including one Stakes winner. Can’t dismiss. Sag Harbor (2) returns to the same venue where he ran a solid 3rd here on Dec. 12. Was in contention right up to the final strides, before fading late. That was the first race in nearly two months, though, and may have needed the exercise to tighten up. Has hit the board in each of the last three races and should be a tough out here. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4, as well. With so many numbers to use in the first couple of legs, I may single the 5 here in the Pick 5, or use the 5-2.
4th: 8-2-6/1/9-3-10-11-5/12-4-7…Pole Setter (8) has not fired in either of the last two outings, but now drops to the bargain bin for the first time in the career. Barn wins with .16% when dropping this much at once, and the new classmates may help this one carry his speed just a tad farther. Hank the Tank (2) is a must-use for me. This 8YO Florida-bred was claimed last time out off the Jerry Hollendorfer barn. New connections have had a great meet, winning 9 of 30 starts for a win rate of .30%. On the first start after the claim purchase, the new barn operator has won with .20% of the last 76 runners. Picks up a very nice rider for this try, and the jockey has teamed up with this trainer to win each of the last two tries over the past two weeks. My pick. Stevis Man (6) drops in class for this one, too. In 40 tries over the AW surfaces, this 11YO has gone 18-3-5. Past record has to vouch for some talent over the AW. Was claimed off a win just three starts ago. Moved up to face tougher and now gets the plunge to the bin. Drop could be the ticket. I bet the 2 to win/place/show. Take note. I box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units. In the Pick 5? I use the 2. Solid.
5th: 7-10-(13)/1-8-12-11/6-9/2-3/(14)-4…My next “Longshot Play of the Night” comes here with Breakthrough (7), who is sitting on 8-1 odds in the ML. This 3YO son of Nyquist will start tonight with Lasix for the first time and will be a gelding for the first time as a runner. Both of those “changes” could and should help this one. Been training right, and does flash some back class. Trainer is winning at a .24% rate this meet, too. Probably won’t get the ML odds, but I like the idea. Wellman (10) has run a couple of very respectable races out of the first three tries, and will get the blinkers for the first time tonight. Barn operator wins with .22% when adding the shades for the first time. Will be coming late, which fits this track preference perfectly. Chance. Midway Mischief (13) is a must-use for me if the 3YO son of Into Mischief draws in from the AE List. Ran 2nd here on debut on Dec. 31 and gets Lasix for the first time. If he gets in? I get on board. I bet the 7-13 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers, no matter who they are. I will key the 7-13 over/under the 10-1-8-12-11-6-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-8/1-11-4/2-7-12-5-9-(13)… Lady Jenneviere (3) drops to half the price that she was offered up for on Dec. 11. Didn’t run great that night, but had a pretty rough trip – going 6 wide at the top of the stretch. She lost all chance right there. Gets a new rider, who is having a very nice meet. Has won with .21% of 85 mounts so far. Could fit this one better. Take Charge Cacky (8) drops in for half the price that she ran for last time out, too. Faced a freight train in Gamblin’ Train that night. In 6 previous tries over the AW, this one has two wins – at this venue. Should fit with these. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 1-11-4-2-7-12-5 in two smaller units.
7th: 6-1/12-8-(13)/10-4-2-(14)/7-9-11…Counter Offer (6) is another from the barn of Ian Wilkes, and like the others this one will get the expert riding services of Landeros, as well. This late, late closer could be a serious threat if the rider can get him a little more motivated at the turn. Just can’t afford to leave too much to do at the 1/8thpole. I love this one’s chances here. Super Sol (1) is another deep closer and will be needing some racing luck and room in the stretch. Veteran rider is having a nice meet again, and was 2nd on this one here just two starts ago. Love the work pattern of late. Chance. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 6-1 over/under the 12-8-13-10-4-2-14 in two smaller units.
8th: 4-8/11/1-6/9-7/(14)-(13)-3…Classified Info (4) drops to the bargain bin for the first time tonight. Ran a better than looks 3rd here last time out on Dec. 12. And, that was against tougher competition. In 3 previous tries here, has a win and a third. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .24% of those kind. Gets the blinkers for the first time. Goes from a route to a sprint. Gets Landeros up. Adds up for me. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-8 sternly in one exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 11-1-6-9-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene