|Day Results||8 / 5-2-1|
|2021 Overall 120||120 / 39-42-48|
|Win % of Top Pick||32.50%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.83%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 70-120||58.33%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 56-96||58.33%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 30-96||31.25%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 12 / 7-2-0||58.33% Win / 75.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 18 / 11-2-0||61.11% Win / 72.22% ITM|
A good night at the “new and improved” Turfway Park on Thursday night. We had 5 selections win on the night, and we hit for exactas that returned $9.70, $22.00, $24.60, and $34.80 for each $1 played.
Our lone Key Play of the Night did win and that kick-started and anchored some nice horizontal plays, as well.
Here’s hoping that we can keep the momentum going tonight and through the weekend. We may add some “bonus coverage” at some other racetracks on Saturday, as well.
Here’s a look at tonight’s card:
Turfway Park – Friday:
1st: 3-5-7/2-6/9-4/8…Upham (3) gets the edge in the first tilt of the night. The 4YO son of Lea goes from two sprints into a route race and the barn wins with .20% when stretching out like this. Barn wins with an amazing .38% in the claiming ranks, too, and that’s with a sample size of 77 races. I can toss the last one, which was against way tougher foes. Race here two back was nice and against tougher, too. Love the rider switch here. Game. Tallestofthetall (5) came with a late rush here on Jan. 2. Just had too much to do in the lane. Returns to face the same sort of competition here and does have a win and a third in four tries at TP. Will need to get motivated a bit earlier this time. Criminal Defense (7) could spice up this odds rack a bit. Trainer is just 1-for-26, but has been smitten by some bad luck in those outings. Does have 4 seconds and 3 thirds on the resume here since December. Will be travelling best in the late going. New rider may help in that regard. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 7-2-6-9-4-8 in two smaller units. I kick start the Pick 5 here with a 3-5-7-2-6/12-11-8-1-6-5-3-2/12-3/10-1/9-4-7. If that ticket is too rich for the blood, try pairing down the numbers in the first two legs, or, try to key the 12 and/or the 10 in races 3 and 4.
2nd: 12-11/8-1/6-5/3-2-4-7-9/10…Dixie Highway (12) is my first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 5YO gelded son of Arch tried a rail trip here last time out on Jan. 16. Faltered in the late going, but the rail is not the place to be on this track. Now, gets a wide trip by virtue of the post and could be a tough out from here. Barn wins with .21% of the last 459 runners on the AW. Nice. Stewards Rules (11) is a whopping 30-1 in the ML provided by the fine folks at Brisnet.com. If I could get half of those odds, I would be happy. This one didn’t fire in the stretch in the last one after pushing along in the early going. Does not like this distance too much, either. Has gone 0-0-0 in 6 previous tries. But the run here at 11/16-miles on Jan. 7 was spot on and good enough if he can duplicate that effort. Chance. Top Hat Voyager (8) is another worth looking at and booking some $ on, as well. Barn wins with .22% of the last 795 runners over the AW. This one has 2 thirds in two previous AW runs. Could be a threat against the likes of these tonight. I bet the 12-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will box the 12-8-1 in another exacta, as well. I will key the 12-8 (take note) over/under the 11-1-6-5-3-2-4-7-9 in two smaller units.
3rd: 12-3-5/8/10-5-4-9/6-2/7-11…The key “number” tonight – at least for me – is the #12. I go with another outside runner here in Auntie Mabel (12). This 4Yo daughter of Bayern drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .14% of those kind. Last time out, this one ran 4th in the MSW ranks here. Tired late in that one, and the runner-up came right back to win the next time out. Ran 2nd over the grass at Indy Grand just two starts ago. Has credentials and gets a nice rider to steer the gears tonight. In five rides for this barn? This rider has won with .20%. Mayapretty (3) bumps up a notch in the class department after running 2nd here on Dec. 17. Gets a huge rider switch, and that alone makes this one a contender in this field of study. Rider has gone 3-4-0 in the last 12 mounts. Chance. Shesalittle Edgy (5) is another from the barn of Buff Bradley. This one ran really well to be 2nd at Churchill Downs in mid-November. Tried the AW for the first time here on Dec. 18. Steady performance, but now stretches out to the route ground for the first time. Could help with the late run. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units, and then key the 12 over/under the 3-5-8-10-5-4-9-6-2 in two smaller.
4th: 10-1-2/7-4/3-5/8-9…Pull Me Back (10) drops another run in the class department tonight after nearly winning against tougher here on Jan. 7. Lost that one by a dirty nostril hair. In 5 previous tries at TP, this one has a win and two seconds now. Could be time to return to the winner’s circle. Has the ability. Jimmy’s Lifestyle (1) pushed the pace last time out and may have used his run a bit too early. If this Florida-bred can relax a bit more early on and come with a later kick, he may be a tough out. Was claimed two starts ago off Wesley Ward. Bumped up in class last time out and didn’t fare as well. Now, returns to the claim price and that should benefit this one’s chances. Gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the ban is 1-for-1 with that equipment change. I definitely use. Sir Ludlow (2) goes for a barn operation that won with .16% of the last 587 runners. This one has never won over the AW in 4 previous tries. But? Does have a second and three thirds on the resume. Will stalk. Can he finish? I bet the 10-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-1 over/under the 2-7-4-3-5 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-4-7/12-11/3-10-(13)-5/6-8-(14)…This is a very nce MSW event that is carded for the 1-mile distance. I will go with Polka Polenta (9) in this spot. The 3YO Ft. Larned filly gets the Lasix for the first time tonight and comes in off a very nice 2nd here on Dec. 17. The winner of that race came right back to win the next time out, too. Rider has gone 0-for-16 so far this meet, but has talent and knows his way around the course. Could be sitting on go-go. Song of Innocence (4) ran 4th here last time out on Dec. 2 and just waivered in the final stages of that 1-mile event. The “show” horse that night came right back to win the next one and this one now gets a new rider – who is red hot. Has joined up with this trainer to go 2-for-3 in the last two weeks. Big chance in this spot. Cuzzywuzzy (7) gets the Lasix for the first time, too. This 3YO filly has raced a total of 6 times so far. Has a 2nd and three 3rds on the record. Ran 3rd to Aunt Pearl, who is likely to win an Eclipse Award as the top 2YO grass filly in the country in 2020. Talent here. Huge jockey switch. Chance. I bet the 9-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will also key the top 3 numbers over/under the 12-11 in two smaller units. Next, I will key the 9-4 over/under the 7-12-11-3-10-13-5 in two smaller units, as well.
6th: 12/5-11-9/(14)-(13)-2-10/7-4-1/6…My third #12 saddle cloth pick for the night comes here with McHenry (12), who is also my first “Key Play of the Night.” I will use this 8YO Illinois-bred in about as many ways as you can in this spot, and that’s after he ran 9th and was beaten 20 lengths last time out. Caught a sloppy track that day, though, and look at this one’s record over the “off track.” Has raced over it 7 times. Has zero wins. I toss the last one and look back at the race at Arlington Park on Sep. 18. Won that day over the turf against much tougher than these. In 5 previous tries over an AW surface? Has 3 wins and a second. I look for a big effort here tonight. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. I will use more with the 5-11-9. Less with the 14-13-2-10. Less with the 7-4-1-6.
7th: 12-11-4/(13)-10-6-1/3-5-7-8-(14)/9-2…I go right back to the #12 well here, too, and this time saddle up with Fooch (12). This 7YO gelded son of Gemologist has not raced since last September at KY Downs. Tired in that one and was a bit overmatched, too. But if you go back to the race at Belmont Park last July? Won that one impressively. Will try the AW for the first time tonight, but should adjust to it well. The barn wins with .32% of those going from the sod to the AW. Working well. Gets a top rider, who has won with .26% of the last 27 mounts for this barn operation. I go strong here. Caramelito (11) lost by a nose here last time out. In two previous tries over AW, this one has a second and a third. Last time out, this one defeated a very nice horse in Scabbard. Will be coming late. Speedy Hans (4) is a 4YO gelded son of Constitution and has been facing tougher. Turned in back-to-back wins over the AW at Woodbine late last summer and in 5 total attempts over the artificial surface, this one has two wins and a second. Will be running late with a top rider in the pilot’s seat. In the last 19 trips for this barn, this rider has come back to the winner’s circle .21% of the time. I bet the 12-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12-4 over/under the 11-13-10-6-1-3-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 10-9/3-1/(13)…The last event of the night is a MCL event at the bargain bin price tag of $5,000. I will go outside, again, and saddle up with Candy Coma (10). This 4YO son of Twirling Candy should love the AW surface and in his only previous run, he finished a very came 2nd at Gulfstream Park against much, much tougher. Off a long time, but has been training well for the return. Comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who is winning at a .26% clip here this meet. Blinkers come off, and the barn wins with .20% of those. Goes out for the 2nd time, and the barn wins with .22% of those. Adds up for me. Autopilot (9) would normally get the nod, if not for the presence of the Ward piece. This one has run over the AW track 6 times already. Has a second and two thirds to show for the efforts. Drops from the $15,000 level all the way to the bargain bin for the first time. Barn wins with .50% of those types of class droppers. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with .21% of those. Will be a tough out here, too. I bet the 10-9 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 10-9 over/under the 3-1-13 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene