(Crosley looking right at home, at home)

Days Results 8 / 2-6-2
2023 Overall — 368 368 / 116-126-165
Win % of Top Pick 31.52%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.87%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 215-368 58.42%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 187-321 58.26%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP 100-321 31.15%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 35/17-7-3 48.57% Win / 77.14% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 4/4-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 48/23-8-4 47.92% Win / 72.92% ITM

Stats Are Now Completely Updated

Here’s our looks for Friday — the kickstart to the wild weekend:

1st: 5/4-6/3-2/7//1-8…Our first “Key Play of the Night” comes in the very first race of the night, as well. (By the way, check out our percentage on “Key Plays.” Impressive, even if I write so, myself.) We go with The Beauty’s Tale (5). This 7YO, Indiana-bred mare drops to the bargain bin — again — after being claimed at this same level last time out on Jan. 13. Been off a bit since, but this barn wins with .24% of the last 21 to be on vacation for a bit. Also, this one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .25% of the last 28 to qualify for that category. Has raced here 3 times so far, with 2 seconds on the resume. Look for the circle tonight. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I key the 5 over/under the 4-6-3-2-7 in the exactas. More with the 4-6 than the rest.

2nd: 3-4/2-7-8/5-10/6-9//1…Blue Teardrops (3) gets the nod here. This one owned and trained by Wesley Ward — who is winning at a .36% clip this meet — will make the career debut. Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and he got a nice breeze here on March 9. Looking good. I’m all in. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-4 in the exactas. Like the odds on the 4, too. I will key both the 3-4 over/under the 2-7-8-5-10 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 2-7/8-4-9/5-1/6-3…Tiz of Thee (2) is a horse that we all should be able to salute. (Did you see what I did there? LOL.) This 4YO gelding by American Pharoah has hit the board in the last 3 and 4 of the last 5. Nearly won again last time out. Now, he gets a significant rate hike in the claiming ranks. Tougher foes, to be sure. But looks ready. In 2 races here, has a win and a 2nd. Trainer winning at a .25% rate this meet after 67 starts. Gets a top rider here, who is winning at a .20% clip after 316 mounts. Adds up. Aviano (7) was claimed two back by a HOF trainer and performed well when elevated to this level last time out. Broke poorly in that encounter, too. Top apprentice — maybe in the entire country — is up. Big shot. I bet the 2-7 across the board, and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 8-4-9-5-1 in two smaller units. 

4th: 5/3-8-10/1//2-4-6//7-9…The next “Key Play of the Night” comes here with another # 5 — Gunoe (5). This 4YO son of Into Mischief is still a maiden, and has been off since last July. But the rest probably did this one some good. Gets another top trainer to head up the education now. Barn has won with .21% of 98 starts this meet. Gets a top rider up and sharp, sharp work on March 11. This one has faced some good ones in the past. Looks like it could be graduation time. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 5 over/under the 3-8-10-1 in the exactas. More with the 3-8-10 than the other.

5th: 2-11/12/(13)-3-9-(14)/4-7/1-5-8/10…Lookin to Fly (2) looks the best here, to me. This 6YO mare won the last time out here on Feb. 3. Came from far back to catch them on the wire as the PT favorite. The barn wins with .41% when trying to repeat in the claim ranks and that is with the last 27 runners. Gets a top rider back up for the challenge. I’m in. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-11 in the exactas. In will key the 2-11 over/under the 12-13-3-9-14 in two smaller units. 

6th: 10-8/12-9/2-3-6/1-5/4-7-11-(13)…Charlies Medal (10) has drawn outside, and that is not optimum. But this 3YO son of Sky Kingdom is made for the AW. Drops a couple of rungs in the calming game here, and the barn wins with .33% when getting this type of class relief. Rider is having a tough meet, but nearly won on this one last time out at twice the asking price. Look out. Cupid’s Number (8) is worth a big look here, too. Trainer wins a lot of races and is finishing first .29% of the 24 starts here this meet. Gets the top of the class in riders here and should improve off the first start. I bet both the 10-8 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 10-8 over/under the 12-9-2-3-6 in two smaller units. 

7th: 6-1/2-4/3/5/7…WEBN Frog Stakes…This is the St. Pat’s Day Stakes event of the night and will be contested at 6 furlongs over the Tapeta surface. I go with Awesome Treat (6). This 5YO mare goes for a trainer who is 0-for-13 this meet and has won with only .03% of 33 starters the last two years. But? This gal has run 2nd here three straight times — all within a length of the win — and nearly won the Wishing Well Stakes here two back. Just a tad more at the line and this one is up. Opening Buzz (1) may be the horse to beat. Won the Wishing Well two starts back and has two wins in three starts here. Likes to rally late. Keep an eye out. Will need some racing room and luck late. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-1-2 in the exactas. I will key these 3 over/under the 4-3-5-7 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-3-4/7/11-(13)/8/2-6-9/5-10-12…Believing (1) gets my vote in the finale. this 5YO mare drops to half the asking price of last race’s debacle. Lost all chance in that one in the early stages. Now, drops back to the same level that she won at — and impressively, too — just two starts ago. Good rider returns to the saddle. Moon Party (3) was claimed just two starts ago and gets back to that same level here. Won here in early December and has some ability. Would not be a shock to see this one close at the wire. Yellow Creek Road (4) is a must-use for me in the exotics, too. Has hit board in 4 of last 5 outs. Has a 2-2-0 record in 5 starts here. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene