|Total Day Results||8 / 4-4-4|
|2021 Overall 284||284 / 90-96-107|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.69%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.39%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 172-284||60.56%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 109-180||60.56%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 59-180||32.78%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 25 / 12-3-3||48.00% Win / 72.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 38 / 21-7-3||55.26% Win / 81.58% ITM|
Well, we rocked and rolled early on Thursday night. First four races? First four wins. And, our $36 Pick 5 ticket was looked very good with three live shots in the last leg — including the odds-on favorite.
But if you are going to dance all night, you have to play the fiddler? Right?
Never caught another winner the rest of the way.
Ran third in the last leg of the Pick 5. Best we could do was a couple of 2nds coming down the stretch. Overall, a disappointing night and a disappointing finish.
But we are back. Hair of the dog, handicapping version.
Here’s our looks for what could be a prosperous Friday night:
1st: 3/1-5-8/6-10-4/9-2-7…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “new and improved” Turfway Park. Can’t Hide From Me (3) will go for one of the hottest barns in the Commonwealth (and anywhere else, for that matter). Trainer comes in with a win percentage of .27% after the first 44 tries this meet. And, he has excelled in every phase of the game. This 5YO gelding drops into the bargain bin for the first time since winning by 61/2 lengths here in early December. Didn’t run much last time out against much better, but should fair well in this tilt. Gets a top rider back up, and he has won with .33% for this barn. My solid pick. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under the numbers listed. More with the 1-5-8. Less with the 6-10-4. Even less with the 9-2-7.
Pick 5: 3/12-4-10-6-2-9-7/6/7-3-11-5-4-2-8/9 — .50-cent ticket = $24.50
Pick 5: 3-1-5-8-6-10-4/12/6-5-8/7-3-11-5-4/9 — .50-cent ticket = $52.50
2nd: 12-4-10/6-2/9-7/3-1-8…Baby White Sox (12) looks well-spotted tonight, as well. This 4YO son of Bayern drops to a career low pice tag after a fading 4th last time out. Price tag cut in half for tonight, and the barn wins with .50% when dropping this much. Goes for a top trainer, who won one on Thursday night and is heating up with the weather. Just two back at Churchill Downs, this one was 2nd against much tougher, too. Returns to a sprint here and that should aid the effort. Orb of the Boro (4) ran a solid 2nd here last time out at the same level. Bothered at the start of that one and still pushed up to the front. Not a good scenario, and, true enough, this one faded late. Could be a tougher out with a smoother beginning. Don’tshowweakness (10) could spice up the exotics here a bit. This 4YO gelding drops down a couple of class rungs after running 4th last time against tougher. New barn operation has done well here. Record of 2-1-2 in the first 9 starts. Rider has been chilly all meet, but this one could sneak into the mix. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 12 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
3rd: 6/5-8/1-2-4/3-7…The 2nd “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Rising Seas (6). This 4YO First Defense filly has been running against much tougher and may have found the right spot and group for a return to prominence here. Ran a very nice 3rd in a Stakes event at KEE last November. Just missed the wire there. Barn wins with .15% on the 2nd start off the layup and with .16% converting from the dirt to the AW. Barn has been super cold all meet, but the work on March 3 was spot on. Has speed. Will need to rock and roll from get to go. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
4th: 7-3-11/5-4/2-8/1-6…Honey Bourbon (7) won here last time out when racing against the same price level, but non-winners of 3-lifetime. Loses that condition and faces tougher here. Still, this one closes with a rally and appears to be good right now. In 8 career starts over an AW surface, this one has 3 wins. Rider switch last time out seemed to work and that pilot returns here. Maria Rose (3) has been away from the races since Jan. 8, and this barn struggles when they return. In 18 starts off the bench, barn has zero wins. But this one won the last time out and has hit the board in the last 3. Chance. Thirst Trap (11) drops in class for this one and if you look two races back, this one won for fun. Still eligible for the non-3 lifetime condition, but faces tougher here. Will be coming very late. Very. Very. Late. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-11 over/under the 3-5-4-2-8-1-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 9/11-10/4-1/7-3/5-6/8-2-12…My 3rd “Key Play of the Night” in the first 5 races. Wow. And, this one comes with another from the barn of my man Tommy Drury. On Cue (9) ran a very nice race on debut here Jan. 15. Off to a slow start, but came with a rally to be 3rd. Barn wins with .27% when making the 2nd career start and with .23% in the MSW ranks. This daughter of Maclean’s Music should have enough speed to get away from the gate better tonight and the recent works are good. Like this one here. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-11-10 in one exacta. I will key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, as well.
6th: 9-12/3-4-7/6-8-1/11-5-10/2…I’ll go right back to the #9 hole for my selection here — Floroplus (9). This 7YO gelding goes for a top barn operation that does well over the AW surface. Trainer scores at an .18% rate in the last 306 starters. This one has 2 wins, 2 seconds and a third in 5 starts here, too, and should fit nicely in this spot. Work on March 3 was spot on. Threat. Alien Season (12) goes for the barn of Wesley Ward, and that’s about enough said. Barn has won with .29% here in 55 starts this meet. This one is one of those winners. Two starts back, this one ran off to a near 7 length win. Moved up and faced tougher last time out. Got shuffled back at the start and never got to stretch his legs early. In 5 starts over the AW, this one has 2 wins. Look for more tonight. I bet the 9-12 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 7-2/6-3-9-1/4-5-6…Kaely’s Sister (7) won here on debut Dec. 9 in a very impressive flash of speed and brilliance for trainer Brad Cox. Returns tonight with the addition of Lasix for the first time. Has the talent and the ingredients to swamp this field out of the boat, too. Work at KEE on Feb. 26 was very nice and this one looks well-spotted for another romp. Miss Stella (2) is another from the barn of Tommy Drury, who is catching a hot streak right now. This one was moved up to first in the debut run at Indy Grand last June. Been off since then. But working well for the return and goes for very solid ownership connections. Daughter of Orb should love the surface. Chance. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and box the top 2 in the exacta. I key the 7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 5-2/9-7-(14)/7-10-(13)/8-12…Poppy’s Girl (5) goes for the Ward barn tonight and this one should be in a very nice spot to pop the maiden cork. Ran 6th here on debut in January, but was lost at the start. Fell back to last in a 6-furlong sprint. Came with a late rush to lose by less than 2. Working well for the return and looks like a claim candidate in this spot, too. Will be tough if she can get off to a good start and the stretch out to the route should not be a problem, either. Barn wins with .22% in the 2nd career start. Women Not Easy (2) is a NY-bred who will face open company for the first time. But this one plunges to the bargain bin tonight and that should level the playing field. Has speed. Early. Often. Fast speed. Trainer is well-respected, but has won with only .06% in the first 18 starts here this meet. May have found the right spot here. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-2 in one exacta. I will key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene