|2020 Overall 189||189 / 68-57-69|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.98%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.22%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –126-189||66.67%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 117-175||66.86%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 64-175||37.57%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 25-4-9-6||16.00% Win / 76.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 26-5-9-6||19.23% Win / 76.92% ITM|
We had a “spotty” night at the oval at Turfway Park on Thursday night. Had 3 winners out of the 8 races, and we scored on all 3 of those exactas, as well. Not a bad percentage, overall.
There’s always a “but,” right?
We didn’t manage anything in the other 5 races. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zero.
So, overall, it was a rather “blah” night.
And, so, we will endeavor to do better. Tonight. Right here. Right now.
Here’s out glimpse at the Turfway Park card for this evening:
1st: 8-2/12-5/9-7-1/10…Mountain Melodies (8) gets the edge in this lid-lifter event. The 3YO daughter of Shackleford is out of a Kitten’s Joy mare and has the ultimate breeding to do well over an AW surface. Trained by one of the meet’s top conditioners and is a home-bred for the owner. Rider has won with .38% of the 26 rides for this barn operation this meet, too. Comes off two consecutive 2nds here. Adds up for me. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-2 in one exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
2nd: 12-11-6/(13)/7-2-8/1…Grade (12) has run a couple of decent 3rds in the past two outs, but may fare better tonight when stretched out to the route distance for the first time. The barn wins with .22% of those going from a sprint event to a two-turn race. Barn wins with .20% when it goes from sprint, to sprint to route. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn hits with .14% of those types. Gets a huge rider switch in this one. Despite the wide, wide post position, this one could carve a nice stalking position and be in a good spot turning for home. Can he kick it home? Barn is winning with .17% this meet. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 13, if he gets in from the AE list.
3rd: 10/6-9-2-4-8/3-5…The first Key Play of the Night comes right here with Tricky Tune (10). The 4YO daughter of Into Mischief cost just a modest $30,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Horses of Racing Age last year. Has had 3 starts this year with a deuce two races ago. Not much of a factor against much tougher last time out, but now returns to the same level where she nearly won on Jan. 18. Barn has won with .38% of the last 37 when dropping back this far in class. Could be a little closer to the pace tonight, too. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then key the 10 over/under the rest of the numbers.
4th: 1-11/9-8/3…Almafuerte (1) returns as a beaten favorite for a barn that scores wins with .19% of those types. This one has hit the board in six straight races. And, this one was coming at the end of the 6 furlongs last time out. Now, she gets an extra 1/2-furlong to negotiate and sustain. My second Key Play of the Night, against a soft group, too. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and key the 1 over/under the “all button.” Also key the 1 over/under the numbers listed, too.
5th: 10-6-7/8-11-2/1-4-12…I’m going with an upset in this nice MSW event, and will hang my price on the first time starter Eden (10). This 3YO daughter of Curlin is a home-bred for WinStar Farm and comes from a Stakes-winning dam by Harlington. Breeding is certainly there for most surfaces, but does well over the AW, too. Has trained very well for the debut and the rider has a 5-2-5 mark in the last 18 mounts over the past week. My choice has something to do with my thinking that the heavy favorite, Tickle (6), may be a bit vulnerable, too. First of all, Tickle comes from the same barn operation. This daughter of Distorted Humor backed up at 6.5 furlongs two races ago and certainly hung at the end of the 6-furlong contest last time out. I would rather see a finish somewhere in those two. Both good races, mind you. But not good enough. Barracuda (7) could be a surprise here, too. Ran well on debut here on Jan. 25. Was 4th in that one. Just missed third by a nose, while closing a bit. Barn hits with .17% of those making the second career race. Look for more here. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
6th: 4-5/2-6/3-8…Ramsey Solution (4) is stepping up to face much tougher competition. The 4YO gelded son of Real Solution has never faced the likes of these. But the real question is this. Does he have the talent to face these? We will find out tonight, to be sure. But I think so. Over the last two starts — one over the turf at Churchill Downs and the last over the AW surface here — this one has demonstrated outstanding ability and future. I take a horse that appears really good right now. Somelikeithotbrown (5) has his best career day over this track — winning the 2019 Jeff Ruby Steaks here. In 9 career starts, he has a 3-2-1 record and has won nearly $500,000 in purses. But…the 4YO Big Brown was off after his 4th place finish in the G2 Blue Grass last April until he ran at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 20. Didn’t fire a lick in that effort as the favorite. I would like to see a good run from him. Maybe it’s tonight. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-5 in one exacta. I will key the 4 over/under the other horses listed above.
7th: 7-6/2B-3-5/4-1-8-2…Carom (7) travels North and from the sunny confines of Gulfstream Park to tackle this allowance group. Better yet, this one drops out of two straight Stakes events to a more modest group. Has never run over the AW before, but has the breeding rights to convert. And, has a very nice, stalking running style that has managed to help this one to a record of 2-1-2 in the first 15 starts. Looks good in this spot. Caloric (6) ran in a Stakes event here on Jan. 17. Ran well late to get up for 4th in a very solid group. Before that one, he won over the AW surface at Presque Isle. In 11 lifetime tries over the AW surfaces, he has a 2-3-2 mark. Trainer has zip in 2 starts here this meet and the rider is a complete unknown. Questions here, for sure. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the “all button” in this spot.
8th: 3-6/5-10-11/7-12-4-8/9…This is a wide open affair to end the night on, and it could be a “bombs away” payoff, as well. Interesting. I’ll give the edge to Barton Hall (3), the ML favorite who just broke the maiden last time out here on Jan. 23. Ran very well when losing the blinkers in that one for a barn that has done very well here this meet with .22% winners in 18 starts. Gets the meet’s top rider to take the reins. Barn hits with .33% when moving up to face winners for the first time, too. Looks like the one to come with a rush late. Ready to Tap (6), on the other hand, is 12-1 in the ML and I think warrants our Upset Special of the Night. This 3YO daughter of Tapiture drops from the $12,500 price tag to the bargain bin and will be making the AW debut. Only two good races came over at Belterra, which isn’t much to base a claim on. But the work on Jan. 6 was good and the barn has won with .23% of those making the 3rd start off a layup and with .20% of those dropping this far in one swoop. Has a chance, I think. Settle a Score (5) is another long shot possibility. Won here two starts back, but had no chance after a horrid start in the last outing. Should fare much better this time around at some decent odds. I use. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under the “all button.” I also try a 3-6-5-10-11 trifecta box. Hoping for some big numbers.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene