|2020 Overall 142||142/47-42-51|
|Win % of Top Pick||33.10%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||32.86%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –96-142||67.61%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 87-128||67.97%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 43-128||33.59%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 22-4-9-4||18.18% Win / 77.27% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 23-5-9-4||21.74% Win / 78.26% ITM|
Another night where we hit 2 winners, and another night where the exactas bailed us out of the wicked wicket. We hit only three exactas. Two of them returned modest payoffs of $8.20 and $11.80 for each $1 played. But the homer came in the 6th race when the exacta paid $52.00 for each $1 offered up. We had several dollars offered up.
We are hoping to land more in the win column tonight. Here’s our chances:
1st: 7-8/5-1/3-6-2…Willin’ Grace (7) won the last time out here on Dec. 31. In 25 trips over this AW course, this 7YO mare has a 3-5-5 record. Trainer has started 4 horses here this meet with a 2-1-0 record, too. Gets a rider who has won with 2 of 3 for this barn in the last 60 days. Stalker looks like she is good right now. Prom Theme (8) ran 3rd last time out, but that was at odds of nearly 24-1. Has run her a whopping 43 times in the career. Has a record of 10-14-5. Only won once last year in 9 starts, but did have 4 seconds. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-8 over/under the 5-1-3-6-2.
2nd: 5-8/1-9-7/2-6-10…Kitten’s World (5) was claimed two races back, and this barn hits with .22% of those that make the second start off the purchase. Was right in the mix to the last furlong last time out. May be better against this group. Sofia’s Slugger (8) goes for a barn that has only won with .03% out of the last 37 starters over the past two years. This one returns as a beaten favorite and has hit the board each of the last 3 outs. Never off the board here. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 1-9-7-2 in two smaller versions.
3rd: 8-1-6/5/7-9-2…Ronan (8) returns to the barn of former trainer and comes into this spot with a huge drop and three straight seconds. Has raced 16 times with 0 wins, but does have the 4 seconds and another 2 thirds. Could be this filly’s night with the addition of the meet’s top rider. Social Circle (1) will be making the third start for the new barn after a claim purchase back in November at Churchill Downs. This one ran well last time out against tougher. Gets a better post tonight, but this one comes from behind. Will have to negotiate the crowd. Rider has won with .37% of the last 19 rides for this barn. You People (6) drops to the bargain bin after a poor performance last time out. Two races back this one was right there against this level. New rider has won with .43% for this barn over the last 7 rides. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5 in two more smaller versions.
4th: 2-9/10-6…Eli’s Coming (2) gets the nod in this spot for a barn that has a 9-9-9 mark in 54 starts this meet. This one has made the lead in the stretch in the last two outs, but couldn’t hold on to the wire. May be able to sustain the bid tonight against this group. Like the fact that this one turns up as a gelding for the first time tonight, too. Although it may be a little quick to run him back after this type of surgery. Mixed feelings. Southern Humor (9) has 3 seconds and 2 thirds in the first 13 starts. Ran 2nd here on Jan. 24. Made a rush in the late going, but hung up late. I bet the 2-9 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-9 over/under the 10-6 in two smaller versions.
5th: 6-11-5/1-10-4-8/3-9/2-7…Popcorn for Eddie (6) won last time out here on Jan. 24 when the 4YO son of Candy Ride was dropped to the bargain bin level in the MCL ranks. Will face winners for the first time tonight, but he ran off to a 31/2 length win and looked powerful in doing so. Could pop right back, with the meet’s top rider getting the job in the saddle. Rahfee Town (11) ran third here at this same level on Jan. 18. Was in contention in the final furlong. Barn wins with .22% at the sprint distance in the last 159 races at these types of distances. Harlan’s Vador (5) didn’t run well last time out, but broke the maiden the race before with an impressive run. Barn has only won with .05% in the last 41 starts, and the rider is a complete unknown. But merits consideration. I bet the 6-11 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 6-11 over/under the 5-1-10-4-8 in two smaller versions.
6th: 5-10/1/2-9-7…Thirsty Actor (5) drops from the $10,000 level to the bargain bin for this one tonight. Barn his with a whopping .36% when dropping this much in one swoop. Has not run since August, and the barn hits with .10% of this type of a layup, too. Work pattern looks good. If ready, he rocks, IMO. Man of Blues (10) has a record of 2-1-3 in 12 starts here and ran a good one here on Jan. 18. Barn hits with .22% of the last 125 starts in the claiming ranks. I bet the 5-10 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I key the 5-10 over/under the 1 in two smaller versions.
7th: 2/3-1-4-5/1A-7-6…Swange (2) is the Key Play of the Night. This 3YO English Channel filly ran 5th here on Dec. 14 as the even-money favorite. But she was bothered at the start of that one, and I think she can redeem herself tonight. Sharp work on Feb. 1. Broke the maiden at KY Downs, which is not easy to do. Barn hits with .22% of those returning as a beaten favorite and the rider has won with .46% of the last 13 rides for this barn. My solid pick. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. More over the 3-1-4-5.
8th: 12-5-6/11/1-7-8-(13)/10-4-3…Eights and Aces (12) was an impressive winner here on Jan. 2. Returns at the same level and should be a tough one to catch. Loves the lead, but will need to break sharp to clear and cover from this far outside post — which could compromise. Has a sharp work here on Feb. 1. Junket (5) has a 1-1-1 mark in 4 starts here and has been really good at this level — winning here on Dec. 5. Overmatched last time out, but looks good in this spot. Levanto (6) figures in this spot, as well. The trainer is having a solid meet here, winning at a .14% lick with the first 28 starters. Rider has won with .23% of the last 13 mounts for this trainer, too. Will stalk and pounce. I bet the 12-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene