|2020 Overall 93||93/35-25-29|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.63%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||31.90%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –68-93||73.12%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 64-88||72.73%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 32-88||36.36%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 14-4-5-3||28.57% Win / 85.71% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 15-5-5-3||33.33% Win / 86.67% ITM|
We had a nice Thursday at the oval in Northern Kentucky. Posted 4 winners out of the 8 races. Hit for exactas that returned $42.20, $10.00, $43.30 and $15.70 for each $1 played. And…
Our “Upset Special of the Night” won the first race and our “Key Play of the Night” won the last race.
Since recalculating some significant timelines and readjusting some of our essential formulas to help off-set a poor performance over “AW” tracks in the past and in the early part of this meet, we have been on a true roll. We have upped our win percentage at Turfway Park now to 36.36% and our top selections have finished ITM 72.73% of the time.
Obviously, though, you are only as good as your next day.
So, here we go.
Hope you have a most wonderful weekend, too.
1st: (13)-12-3-9/1-10/11-(14)…Tingsthatmakesense (13) will need some luck before this race ever starts. Need a scratch or two just to get into the starting gate from the Also-Eligible List. If the 3YO Bluegrass Cat filly, who is a California-bred, manages to make the gate, though, take note. This one shipped in from Golden Gate and ran over this strip here just 4 days ago. Better than it looked 4th. Had some troubles early on. Since she ran just 4 days ago, she probably will not go in this spot. But…you never know. West Glacier (12) is a 3YO daughter of Liaison and comes into this one off a solid performance against much, much better at Hawthorne. Gets a new rider, who is doing well here with a limited number of starters. Illinois-bred has some speed that she flashed last time out. Madam Novetzke (3) was claimed last time out. New barn wins with .30% on the first try after a purchase. Also wins with .27% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Was wide throughout the last effort in a very suspect effort. New rider for this one. Take a look here. I bet the 12 to win/place/show (if the #13 does not make the race). I box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I key the 12-3 over/under the 9-1-10-11-14 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 2-6/7/3-5-8/4…My first Key Play of the Night comes right here with Stay in Yo Lane (2). This 4YO, California-bred son of Informed comes into this one off a narrow loss last time out, while racing here on Jan. 20. This will — if not scratched — will be running off a 4-day layoff, as well. Has hit the board in each of the last 8 races. Of those, 7 have either been wins or runner-up finishes. In two tries over this track, he has a win and a second. Has never wheeled back anywhere close to this timeline. But, if he stays, he figures. If not? I will continue to hang the Key Play of the Night sign out. I just move it over to Mystic Tiger (6). This is an Indiana-bred son of Silver Mountain and trained by a hot trainer here this meet. The barn has a 8-7-6 record in 41 mounts. Has the speed to carve out the fractions and won here last time out in a breeze effort. In 5 races over this track, this one has 2 wins, 1 second and 1 third. Figures strong. I bet the 2 or the 6 across the board. I key the 2 or the 6 under and over the rest of the numbers in the exactas. Interested to see if the 2 stays in this one. If so, that is where I go. If not…I’m happy to take the 6.
3rd: 8/2/4-7-5/1-9…The second Key Play of the Night comes here with Headline Kitten (8). This 3YO daughter of Kitten’s Joy is a home-bred for the Ramsey Family and she nearly won on debut when racing here just 4 days ago, too. Wheels back? Really? If she stays in, she is the pick. If not, I can easily switch girls and hang the same banner on Mr. Sarinana (2). This one drops from the $30,000 price tag all the way to a $7,500 level tonight. Barn hits with .63% (Wow!) when dropping this much in one swoop. Has not fared that well over the AW, but look at the trouble line on this one last time out. Hopped at the start, and really could not catch up to engage against a much, much tougher group. Gets a huge rider switch to the meet’s top rider. Take note. I bet the 8 or the 2 to win/place/show. I take the 8, if he stays in. If not, I switch to the 2. I will key the 8 or 2 over/under all the rest.
4th: 7-1-3/2/6-4/5-1A…Ruby Y’all (7) gets half her name from the Water Tower just down the road from the racetrack here in Florence. This 3YO daughter of Gemologist broke the maiden on first asking over a muddy track at Indy Grand. Had all kinds of issues in the next start at Churchill Downs. That’s a toss race for me. Came back to run a good one here last time out. First time over the AW can be a bit funky and tricky. Like the numbers on this one and should improve off the last run. Secretly Wicked (1) ran a good one when dropping out of the Stakes company from the two times before. This one has a 1-1-1 mark in 8 career starts, but 4 of the times that she missed the board? They were all Stakes races. No Stakes runners in this one. Got to use, for me. A Girl Named Jac (3) broke the maiden at Churchill Downs in MSW company. Those races were salty. Real salty. Moves up to face winners for the first time tonight, but the breeding suggests that this one should love, love, love the surface. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller versions.
5th: 9/11-2-5/10-8-6-12/(13)-3-7-4…My next Key Play of the Night comes right here with the second-time starter Mo Mosa (9). This 3YO son of Uncle Mo ran a super good one here on debut on Dec. 19. Winner of that one came right back to win the next time out, too. This guy hopped at the start and lost position. Rushed up into contention after that poor beginning. Bad combo. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn hits with .22% of these. Barn is having a super good meet here, too, winning at .24% with the first 49 started since December. Training well over this surface. Looks like a winner to me. I bet the 9 to win/place/show. I key the 9 over/under the 11-2-5-10-8-6-12. I really use the 5 & 10 with the 9 here. But the 9 looks much the best with a good start.
6th: 3-5/2-9/1-6…Just Bling It (3) will be making the first start for a new barn operator after moving South from Woodbine. Lots of experience over the AW, to be sure. In 6 starts over the poly, though, only has 3 thirds. Been facing tougher, though. Broke the maiden at the MSW level at WO back in July. Heady stuff there. Kity Zip (5) is a 5YO City Zip mare, and is a Maryland-bred. Ran against much better at Laurel last year, and will make the poly debut tonight. Like the works ere and the new trainer hits with .15% of those making the barn debut. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 2-9-1-6 in two softer versions.
7th: 6/10-1A-4/9-7-1/5-8…My last Key Play of the Night. Had several on this card. Unusual. But, on paper, Infinite (6), truly, stands out in this very nice field of allowance runners. The trainer of this one is winning at a .36% clip in the first 36 runners since December. Over the AW surface, the barn has won with .34% of the last 361 runners. That is a huge number. This 4YO son of Scat Daddy won at Churchill Downs two starts back. Ran third at KEE back in October of last year. In 3 starts here, has a win and a second. Last time out, just tired. May love it going shorter this time around. Rider has 3 wins and a third in just 5 rides this meet. Watch out. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed. More over the 10-1A-4-9-7-1.
8th: 8-7/3-11/4-1-(13)…Popcorn for Eddie (8) drops from the $15,000 price category to the bargain bin for this one. Trainer hits with .33% of those getting this kind of class drop. Has some speed and may be able to carry it all the way against the likes of these. New rider tonight for a horse that trained well last time and could be better at the shorter distance. Sire is top notch. My pick. Solid. Eli’s Coming (7) is by a son of Candy Ride — Twirling Candy. Both of those sires do well with runners that take to the AW surfaces. This one nearly won at this level last time out. Trainer has done well since the circuit shifted to TP in December. Will be dangerous with a similar run as the last. I bet the 8 to win/place/show. I box the 8-7 in the exacta. Solid. I will key the 8-7 over/under the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene