|2020 Overall 118||118/41-32-43|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.75%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||32.77%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –81-118||68.64%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 72-104||69.23%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 37-104||35.58%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 18-4-5-4||22.22% Win / 72.22% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 19-5-5-4||26.32% Win / 73.68% ITM|
It was feast time. It was famine time. Tale of two ticker tapes at Turfway Park on Thursday night.
Our picks finished 1-2-3 in both the first and last races. And, we added a nice win in the 4th, as well. We totaled four exactas that returned $10.70, $55.30, $14.60 and $10 for each $1 played, too.
But the other races were misses. Big misses.
Such is life, sometimes. Yet, it was a positive night on the money exchange.
So, we will be back for more tonight. Here’s the run-down of our picks:
1st: 4-8-7/1/9-1A/6-3-5…Gliding Alone (4) is an 8YO Ohio-bred that has been racing in open company of late. Has not been close in either of the last two outs here at TP, but drops considerably to the bargain bin for this one. The barn hits with .09% when dropping this much in one swoop, and does have a 3rd in three races over this AW strip. Should fit a whole lot better with these kind. Has faced much, much tougher in the past. Kid Perfect (8) is another that kind of fits into that same category mix. Has faced much tougher in the past. Dropped to this level last time out here on Jan. 4. Ran a solid if not spectacular 3rd. This will be the 2nd start for the new barn operation and will switch from a sprint to a route. Does not show any races at this distance in the past. But the barn does hit with .19% on this angle. Returns as a beaten favorite. If the 6YO gelding doesn’t mind the stretch out, he fits here, too. Rio Bueno (7) has run two really good races over this surface since moving here from Indiana. Has truly converted to the AW and looks to have found his niche. Well-bred son of Smart Strike, who was cut out to be and do more. Has hit the board in each of the last 4 outs and 5 of the last 6. Must use for me. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two more smaller versions.
2nd: 8-2-6-9…Mine N Yours (8) comes from the barn of the meet’s hottest and winningest trainer. Will be making his first start since mid-December and didn’t run much in that effort. The race before that, though, he won in Ohio. Gets a top apprentice rider in the irons, and he has won with .35% of the last 31 mounts for this barn. Work on Jan. 8 was spot on. Has a win and a third in 5 starts over this track in the past. Contraction (2) is dropping considerably in class for this effort. Barn only hits with .06% when dropping them this far, but the barn has only hit with .06% of the last 89 mounts, too. This one could be a presence in this one. Although not raced here, does have a win and 2 seconds in 7 starts over the AW surface. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the “all button.”
3rd: 1-2-6/8/5-3…Mansoor (1) is coming off a nice run here against better last time out on Jan. 17. Drops in class off that 2nd place finish. Has a win in 10 tries here, but has hit the board 3 other times. Hot rider is back aboard. Looks solid in this spot. Gotsomemojo (2) won by many last time out and the barn does hit with .16% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Work here on Jan. 9 is good, and a new rider takes the reins. This 7YO gelding has a win and a second in two tries here. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8 in two smaller versions.
4th: 9-10-2/5-7-4/1-6…Statesboro (9) goes for a barn that has won with .32% here this meet and that comes with 25 started. This one won here two starts back an d really well against much better last time out. Now, he drops to the bottom. What’s up with that? Hmmm. But I will go and stay right here. Barn hits with .23% of those dropping this much, and the record here is solid. Has only 1 second in 5 starts at this distance, though. Shortly (10) could add some spice to this odds rack. Listed at 6-1 in the ML, but I think could run much better than those odds. Will make the second start for a new barn operator, and he hits with .30% of those that return for the 2nd start. Was claimed for $20,000 two starts back. Now drops to the bargain bin. Fits with these. I don’t care what the odds-maker says. Look for more tonight. Unveiling (2) has won two in a row here since trying the AW for the first time. Hard to beat perfection. Gets a new rider tonight, but the barn is hitting with .23% of the last 57 mounts at TP. Hard to dismiss. I bet the 9-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 9-10 over/under the 2-5-7-4-1-6 in two smaller versions.
5th: 12/4-7/5-11…The first Key Play of the Night comes right here with Almafuerte (12). This 5YO Twirling Candy mare nearly won here last time out when trying the TP surface for the first time. Goes for a sneaky good barn operator, and returns as a beaten favorite. Barn hits with .20% of those kind. Look for this one to stalk the pace and get the first jump on the rest when the real running starts. Take note. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under the “all button.”
6th: 2-8/4-6/5-10-3…Quarterback Dak (2) goes for the barn of Wesley Ward — who has hit with .37% of the first 38 runners it has started at TP since the beginning of December. Ran well here on debut on Jan. 3. Pushed the4 pace from the get-go and settled for third. Had to alter his position late in that one and it may have cost him a placing. Gets a new rider tonight and this jockey has won with 3 of the 6 starters for the Ward barn this meet. Take note. Deerslayer (8) drops from a MSW level event here on Jan. 16 to the same level that he ran here on Dec. 7. Nearly won that first outing. Gets a new rider tonight and that could and should help. Barn hits with .29% of those that move from the MSW ranks to the MCL level. Has ability to rush the pace or sit off it a bit. Logical. I bet the top two numbers across the board and then box them solidly in one exacta. I will key the 2-8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
7th: 7-2/1-4-5/8-9-1A…Got to like the #7 horse in the 7th race, right? I do here. Bourbon Traffic (7) will be making the second career start for the barn of Ben Colebrook since moving East from Golden Gate. Ran OK here at longer odds on Jan. 11. Faced some good ones in that event. Barn hits with .20% of those making the second start for the new connections. This one has some speed and may be able to carve out some nice fractions in this spot. Gets the meets top rider in the irons for the first time. Take note of that switch. El Ahjijado (2) is my Upset Special of the Night. Listed at 6-1 in the ML and could slide up the odds board before PT. This one goes for a really chilly barn. Has only won with .02% of the last 41 starters. But look at the race here two back. Ran huge. That effort could be good enough tonight at a square price. I use. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-2 over/under the rest in two smaller versions.
8th: 7-12/6-9-(13)/8-5-10…Hickory Hill (7) could give us back-to-back “7s” to end the night. This 8YO gelding returns off a near-miss second here on Dec. 28. In two starts here now, this one has a deuce to show for the efforts. The key race is the race at Churchill Downs three races back. Was super in that performance. If he can find that late kick tonight. See ya. Barn is looking for the first win this meet. Too good to go forever without a tally. I think here is definitely possible to snap the “duck.” Tee Tee (12) is dropping in class for this one and gets back to the same price point where he won at two starts back. In 10 starts here, this one has a 3-1-2 mark. Best resume. I bet the 7-12 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-12 over/under the rest in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene