|Total Day Results||8 / 4-2-4|
|2021 Overall 360||360 / 118-128-142|
|Win % of Top Pick||32.78%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.93%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 220-360||61.11%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 150-244||61.48%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 83-244||34.02%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 41 / 17-8-3||41.46% Win / 68.29% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 55 / 26-12-3||47.27% Win / 74.55% ITM|
Here’s a look at tonight’s card:
1st: 3-5/1-2-6/4-7…Parrot Head (3) returns on Friday night to the same level where he ran a very solid 2nd at on Feb. 26. Was the beaten favorite that night despite a spirited run from the get go in the 1-mile journey. Tired a bit at the end, but in two previous runs here, this one has a 2nd and a 3rd now. Barn wins with .29% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Choice. I’m Intrigued (5) is a first-time starter from the barn of Brad Cox, who has won with .27% of his 30 starters here this meet. Any time this trainer sends one over to get the tack? Must use for me. Dam of this one has 4 winners from 6 starters and 1 Stakes winner, too. Last two weeks, the barn has won with 2 of 6, and toss in a 2nd, too. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas in two smaller units.
Pick 5: 3-5/1A-3/5-1-3-2/5-1-1A/all…$0.50-cent ticket =
2nd: 1A-3/5-7-8-6/1-2…Algebraic (1A) is much the best of the two entered here, IMO. This 3YO son of Algorithms drops from the $50,000 optional-claimer ranks to the $30,000 tag here. Gets the Lasix for the 2nd time, too, and the barn wins with 1 of 2 that fit that category. Working well. Has speed. Good be dangerous at this cut-back distance here. Chicks for Free (3) is a 3YO gelded son of Constitution and heads to the gate here for trainer Wesley Ward. The barn has won with .30% of the first 64 starters here this meet and this one is coming off a layup since August. Drops considerably for this effort and has been working well at KEE for the return. Barn wins with .28% of those that make the gate as a beaten favorite. I bet the 1A-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key them over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 5-1/3-2/4…Scabbard (5) is a 4YO gelded son of More Than Ready that I have not been ready to give up on. Not yet. One more. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .17% of those. Loses the blinkers here and the barn wins with .20% of those. Ran well here two starts back and the cut-back in distance should help. I give one more shot. After all, he twice ran 2nd in Graded Stakes events. Front Man (1) has hit the board in each of the last two starts here and returns to face the same ranks here. Gets a veteran rider back in the saddle, and he knows this one very well by now. In 3 starts over the AW, this one does have a 2nd and a 3rd. Both here. Will be stalking and pouncing. Good enough? We shall see. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 5-1 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
4th: 5-1-1A/6-10…Sweet Samurai (5) goes for a newbie to the trainer ranks, but his horses are running very well so far. In three starts here this meet, the barn has a 2ndand a 3rd. This one accounts for both of those efforts. Bothered at the start last time out, or could have possibly won that event. Rider who was up for the 2nd, two starts ago, returns to the irons. Looks like a fit. Out Ona Limb (1) and I’ll Getthewishkey (1A) go for the same barn operation and the same rider has been named on each. One is likely to scratch. But they are about equal in class, for me. I give the slight edge to the former. West Virginia-bred did run 2nd here last time out on March 11. Wheels right back a week later. Interesting. The latter drops from the $16,000 level to the bargain bin for the first time. Trainer wins with .50% of those getting the Lasix for the 2nd time and with .19% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Solid rider named on both. Can boot them home late. Contenders. I bet the 5-entry across the board and then box the 5-entry in the exacta. I will key the 5-entry over/under the 6-10 in two smaller units.
5th: 2-6-4/5-1-7/10…Bigmancan (2) has ben away from the starting gate since Jan. 22, but the barn wins with .20% gone that long. Has been training lights out at Skylight, and this trainer wins with .40% of those that come back as a beaten favorite. Gets a solid rider up and should be coming late. Serious contender. Kierkegaard (6) will get the saddle from the talented barn operators at Jack Sisterson’s stable. This one has ben gone since Jan. 9. This trainer wins with only .04% of those that have been on vacation that long. Interesting note. But this one ran huge here two starts ago against much, much tougher and looks like he can hold his own against these types. Samurai Prince (4) goes for one of the hottest training operations in the land. In 53 mounts here this meet, this trainer has scored with .28% winners. All levels, too. This one broke the maiden here in December. Has not been close since, but the barn wins with .24% when switching from dirt to the AW. Top rider gets the mount and he has won on this one’s back before, too. Chance. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 6-5-1-7-10 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-7/3-8/1-2/5-4…Pull Me Back (6) is a rather consistent sort, with a2-3-1 record in the first 15 starts to the career. Ran a “better-than-looks” 5th here on Mach 6. Gets a huge rider switch tonight and the new jockey has a win in only previous mount for this barn operation. Won here two starts ago. In 7 starts over the AW here, this one has a 2-2-0 mark. Zipaway (7) goes for a barn operator who is 0-for-38 on the AW lately. Has speed and that’s dangerous, but this one finds it hard to finish what he normally starts. Does have a win here, but the rider is 7-for-11 and the trainer is 0-for-37 this meet. Hmmm. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas.
7th: 6-2/5-8-7-1/4-9…Bold Figure (6) drops from the MSW company all the way to the MCL $15,000 ranks here. The barn is 0-for-6 when dropping like this. In 58 previous starts at the MCL level, this trainer wins with .05%, too. Not encouraging. Rider is 8-for-112, also. These connections did team up to be second at odds-on rates in early January. Nearly won that one. Maybe this time? Organza (2) overcame some adversity in the last start to be a “better-than-looks” 3rd. Gets a rider known for his finishing kick and that style should benefit this one immensely. Trainer wins with .33% in the 2nd start off a claim purchase and with .33% when going from a route distance to a sprint. I like this one better. I bet the 2 – take note – to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two exactas.
8th: 9/10-3-1/6-7/4-2…The final race of the night renders my first and only Key Play of the Night. This one is Inclusive (9). The 5YO Sky Mesa gelding is bred and made for the AW. In 3 tries over it so far, this one has a 2nd and a 3rd. Both of those have come here in recent weeks. Returns as a beaten favorite in this spot, and the barn wins with .22% of those. Gets the same rider back this time, too, and the experience should benefit both. Drops from the $15,000 level to the $7,500 tag here and the barn wins with .14% when dropping this much in one swoop. My pick. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 10-3-1. Less with the 6-7. Even less with the 4-2.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene