Day’s Results 10 / 4-3-1
2022 Overall — 2329 2329 / 788-829-1080
Win % of Top Pick 33.83%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.60%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1490-2329 63.98%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP 92-142 64.79%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP 47-142 33.10%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 17/5-6-3 29.41% Win / 82.35% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 378-569 66.43%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 199-569 34.97%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 76/36-10-8 47.37% Win / 71.05% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  339/ 138-75-35 40.71% Win / 73.16% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ KEE 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 12/2-1-2 16.67% Win / 41.67% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2 28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2 27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 47/10-7-6 21.28% Win / 48.94% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Turfway Park’s card on Saturday)

Here’s our looks for the Sunday, New Year’s Day festivities in Northern Kentucky:

1st: 8-1/10/11-12//2/7/6…Marsanne (8) gets the nod in the first Kentucky Thoroughbred race of 2023. This 3YO Carpe Diem filly ran well last time out and was claimed, but that was voided after the race. Will race with Lasix for the 2nd time and that seemed to help last time out. Barn wins with .20% when getting the anti-bleeder for the 2nd time. Down a couple of notches in the claiming ranks here and the barn wins with .29% of the last 7 to do that. Gets a solid rider up. Chi Town Heat (1) drops for this one, too, and goes for a top barn operation. Trainer has won with .25% of the 358 starts in 2022. Gets the meet’s top rider up here. Must use, for me. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 10-11-12 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2-8-11/4-9/1-5/6-10/12/7…Monterey Peninsula (2) nearly won at the “bargain bin” level last time out and looks formidable here. Has hit the board in all three starts of the career, to date. Should be a tough out in this spot. Reservenotmet (8) was claimed last time out and now drops off the purchase price. Barn wins with .30% of the last 30 to do that. Gets the meet’s top rider up, too. Look out for this one late. Threat. Pyrite (11) goes for a trainer who has started the meet with 6 wins in the first 9 starts. Took over this owner’s entire barn and has done well since the promotion. Nearly won last time out and drops to the “bin.” I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-9 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 7-5/1/3-6/8-2-4/9…Bohemian Boy (7) has hit the board in the last two outs and 5 out of the last 6. Threat in each. Should push the pace here from the get-go and be a tough out. Rider is 1-for-41 to start the meet, but can boot. Like this one a lot. Boise (5) picks up the meet’s top rider and that jockey change could be enough to push this one to the front at the wire. Rider has won with .22% of the last 36 for this barn operation. Look for a big roar late. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 1-3-6 in two smaller units. 

4th: 8-9-7/11/4/3-12/2-10/1-6…Kazan (8) ran well here on Dec. 9. Lost that one by a dirty nose at the wire. Will come late again, in all probability, and should be a handful in the stretch. Has a 1-2-1 record in 5 races over AW in the career, so far. Look out. Markitoff (9) has speed and will be the once to catch. Drops back into the claiming ranks here and the barn wins with .21% of the last 63 to race for a price tag. Sacred Rider (7) is a barn mate of the top pick here. Gets the meet’s top rider and this one will push the pace from the get-go. May enjoy the shorter distance here and the barn is likely to warm up here soon. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-4 in two smaller units. 

5th: 2-11/6-5-7-10-(13)/3-1-4-9-12…Friction (2) has a top pedigree and comes in off some super works for the career debut. Barn does win with .18% of first time starters and is starting to really heat up at the Northern KY track. Look out here. Has a right to shine. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-11 in the exactas. And, I will key the 2 over/under the 11-6-5-7-10-13-3 in two more smaller units. 

6th: 9/8-3/1/2-5-6/4/7…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Cinderella Story (9) gets Lasix and a class drop for the 2nd career race. Should be salty at this level and gets a good gate rider for the journey. Barn does win with .38% when adding Lasix for the first time, too. Look out here. I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 8-3-1-2-5-6-4. More with the 8-3 than the rest. 

7th: 8/4-1-10/2-5-7-11//3-6-9…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Mendel’s Secret (8). This one will get Lasix for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .14% when adding the anti-bleeder. Picks up the meet’s top rider and he does well for this barn operation. All speed here. Very fast. Will have to catch. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 8 over/under the 4-1-10-2-5-7-11 in the exactas. More with the 4-1-10 than the rest.

8th: 5-10-7/9/2-8-3/6//1-4…Culdee (5) goes for one of the best trainers in the game today, and he should get more recognition for always having his horses looking good and spotted great. This will be the first time he puts the tack on this one and he does win with .29% of the last 34 to make the barn debut. Has the talent to close well here and get the job done. Quiero Mas (10) may be the horse to beat here. This one goes for a trainer who has won with .41% of the first 27 starts of the meet. Ran well here on Dec. 8 and now stretches out to a route distance for the first time. Barn wins with .19% of the last 32 to do that. Partyline (7) has run three 2nds in row. Has hit the board in 4 of 6 lifetime.l Looks ready to take the next step. I bet the 5-10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9 in two smaller units. 

9th: 8/7/3/4-5-6//1/2…The last “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Outadore (8). This one has a win over this track and has gone 5-1-2 in the first 10 career starts. Won the last time out at KEE in a very impressive flash of speed. Can motor and should be on the lead here, too. Look out. Will have to catch. Look at the rider shipping in. Wow. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 8 over/under the 7-3-4-5-6 in the exactas. More with the 7-3 than the rest. 

10th: 9-8/7-6/4-3/10-11-1/5-12-(14)…The finale is a nice MSW race and I will go with Eye Witness (9). Another Wesley Ward rookie who will get the services of the rebounding Kent Desormeaux. this one nearly won at Aqueduct in September. Has speed, too. Son of City of Light cost $650,000 to purchase at the 2021 KEE September Yearling Sale. I’m in. All in. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-8 in the exactas. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 7-6-4-3 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / gene